Daily Morning Report

Friday, September 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were near flat to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for mixed openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock traders may be a bit more nervous today, as Friday is the “quadruple witching” day, whereby stock index futures, options on futures and options on stocks expire. Such days can produce higher volatility in the stock indexes.

The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $41.00. Crude oil bulls have had a good week, which has also encouraged bulls in other raw commodity markets, given that crude is arguably the sector leader. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes leading economic indicators, the international transactions and current account report, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 3,386.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,419.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,310.25 and then at the September low of 3,286.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 11,288.50 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 10,904.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 177 14/32 and then at 178 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 175 28/32 and then at 175 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.24.0 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.10.5 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance 1.1900 and then at at this week’s high of 1.1924. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at this week’s low of 1.1759. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a very good week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $41.49 and then at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then at $39.42. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Corn and soybeans are in bull runs, and wheat bulls have also showed some strength late this week. Export demand for U.S. corn and soybeans remains very strong and is presently trumping adequate global grain supplies. Early U.S. harvest results will be closely examined.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are more downbeat late this week, following a reminder from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon that the U.S. economic outlook is “highly uncertain.” Wednesday afternoon’s conclusion of the Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) saw no change in U.S. interest rates, as expected, but the Fed signaled U.S. rates will not rise for at least three years. The Fed reiterated it wants to see inflation at 2% or slightly above. Many were hoping for more clarity on how the Fed plans to stoke inflation in the coming months. A Wall Street Journal report by Greg Ip suggested the FOMC statement and Chairman Jay Powell’s press conference were strong on words but weak on actions.

It could be that the marketplace late this week, following the FOMC meeting, may be considering more the longer-term implications of the Covid-19 economic damage, instead of the recently better-than-expected recoveries in some sectors of world economies. When one thinks about when most economic and social conditions could be “back to normal” the horizon for such is a long way off. And there are sure to be permanent and deep Covid-19 scars in sectors of the major global economies.

In overnight news, the Euro zone August consumer price index was down 0.4% from July and down 0.2%, year-on-year. These numbers are a stark reminder of the difficulty central banks may have in reigniting inflation in the coming months.

The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged at its regular meeting Thursday, continuing its easy-money stance. The Bank of England is meeting today on its monetary policy.

The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $40.00. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,386.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,419.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,310.25 and then at the September low of 3,286.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,288.50 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,002.25 and then at the September low of 10,924.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 177 4/32 and then at 177 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 175 28/32 and then at 175 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.23.0 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.10.5 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading but hit a five-week low overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance 1.1900 and then at at this week’s high of 1.1924. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1759 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a very good week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $40.34 and then at $41.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $39.42 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets, but the wheat bulls have faded. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Export demand for U.S. corn and soybeans remains strong and is presently trumping very adequate global grain supplies. Early U.S. harvest results will be closely examined.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were again mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite remains keener at mid-week as global stock markets have generally rebounded from selling pressure that began the month of September.

In focus today, the U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jay Powell. The Fed’s post-FOMC meeting statement and Powell’s remarks will be closely scrutinized for more clarity on the Fed’s shift to an easing of its inflation guidelines. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan also have monetary policy meetings this week.

In overnight news the OECD think tank projected the global economy to contract by 4.5% in 2020, which is a bit better than its June forecast of 6.0% contraction. The OECD also said the world economy could grow by 7.0% in 2021, provided Covid restrictions are lifted and an effective vaccine is found.

The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower again. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $39.25. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have regained the firm overall near-term technical advantage as the try to restart a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,436.50 and then at 3,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,385.25 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,366.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall technical advantage and are trying to restart a price uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,531.75 and then at 11,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,388.50 and then at Tuesday’s low of 11,233.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 177 2/32 and then at 177 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 176 3/32 and then at 175 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.23.0 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.13.5 and then at 139.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1924 and then at last week’s high of 1.1941. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1850 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $39.42 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $38.35 and then at this week’s low of $36.82. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed but mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets, but the wheat bulls are fading. Export demand for U.S. corn and soybeans remains strong and is presently trumping very adequate global grain supplies. Early U.S. harvest results will be closely examined.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is keener early this week as many stock markets have rebounded from recent strong selling pressure that began the month of September.

In overnight news, China released some more upbeat economic data that further suggests its economy is taking off faster than other major economies, following the Covid-19 lockdowns. China’s industrial production in August was up 5.6%, year-on-year, and up 1.0% from July.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Tuesday painted a gloomy picture for crude oil demand the rest of this year, predicting it would decline 8.4 million barrels per day, overall, this year.

Major central bank meetings are in the spotlight this week. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all have monetary policy meetings this week. The Fed’s FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinized for more clarity following its shift to an easing of its inflation constricts. The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon. 

The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $38.00. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, weekly chain store sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, and industrial production and capacity utilization.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as the try to restart a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,425.00 and then at last week’s high of 3,436.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Monday’s low of 3,336.25 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall technical advantage and are trying to restart a price uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,400.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,233.00 and then at Monday’s low of 11,089.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 176 24/32 and then at Monday’s high of 177 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at 176 even and then at 175 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.19.0 and then at Monday’s high of 139.23.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.10.0 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1941 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1882 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1855. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $38.00 and then at $38.45. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $36.82 and then at the September low of $36.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed but mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Export demand for U.S. grains remains strong. Early U.S. harvest results will be closely examined. Grain traders should keep an eye on crude oil. If that key outside market starts to falter, rallies in the grains will likely to the same.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff