Daily Morning Report

Monday, September 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk sentiment is upbeat to start the trading week. There were two big company deals announced over the weekend: Softbank plans to sell chipmaker ARM to Nvidia for more than $40 billion, and Gilead Sciences plans to acquire Immunomedics for $21 billion. Meantime, AstraZeneca said it has resumed its phase-three trial on a Covid-19 vaccine after being suspended last week. Pfizer also announced its vaccine could be distributed before year-end if all goes well with its trials.

Major central bank meetings are in the spotlight this week. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all have monetary policy meetings this week. The Fed’s FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinized following its shift to an easing of its inflation constricts. The question remains how the FOMC puts its new policy into action.

Said an FXTM analyst in an email dispatch Monday: “From what we know now, the Fed is set up to keep interest rates near zero for a long time, possibly for several years. Given the new framework, any spike in inflation won’t translate into immediate rate hikes as the Fed wants to compensate for the lost years when they have failed to hit the target. The dot plot will be the key guide for investors and traders alike. If inflation projections remain at 2% or below for the foreseeable future, this will solidify market expectations for a low rate environment for many years to come. That said, Jay Powell would still have to explain in more detail how the new framework will be translated into policy action.”

The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $37.00. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.67% today.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday but the report pace picks up rapidly on Tuesday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been at least temporarily negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,414.00 and then at last week’s high of 3,436.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Friday’s low of 3,298.25 and then at last week’s low of 3,286.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 11,343.75 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,089.50 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 177 even and then at 177 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 176 12/32 and then at 176 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.24.0 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.16.0 and then at Friday’s low of 139.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1941 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1855 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $38.00 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $36.85 and then at the September low of $36.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Demand from China remains strong for soybeans and even some corn. Last Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report was not as bearish as some reckoned it might be. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Early harvest results this week will also be closely examined.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are set for higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock market has become a bit wobbly recently, after hitting record highs several times in August. Daily stock market volatility has picked up, but not to the point of really spooking the marketplace. Still, it’s early September and history shows that the stock and financial markets have a few more weeks of potential rough waters, and that could be extended by a few weeks this year with the U.S. elections in early November.

A feature in the marketplace this week is the slumping value of the British pound versus the U.S. dollar, falling to a six-week low amid deteriorating relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

The U.S. economic data point of the day is the consumer price index for August, which is seen up 0.3% from July and up 1.2%, year-on-year.

The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $37.25. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer price index, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been at least temporarily negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 3,414.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,436.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,316.75 and then at this week’s low of 3,286.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,343.75 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,167.75 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 176 16/32 and then at 177 even. Shorter-term support lies at 175 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 175 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 139.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 139.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 139.05.0 and then at this week’s low of 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1941 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1843 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $38.18 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $36.96 and then at this week’s low of $36.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets, and are having a good week. Demand from China remains strong for soybeans and even some corn. Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is in focus. Many believe the report will favor the bears. Trading is likely to be more active following the midday release.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are wondering if the rebound in the U.S. stock market will continue, following solid gains posted in the stock indexes Wednesday. The months of September and October can produce serious turbulence in the stock and financial markets.

The focus for the global marketplace Thursday is the regular monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank. The ECB is not expected to make any significant changes in policy, but traders are wondering if the central bank will mention the strength of the Euro currency against the U.S. dollar recently. Also, the ECB could revise its outlook on inflation after the Federal Reserve backed off on its stricter inflation constricts last month.

The weekly U.S. jobless claims report is also out Thursday morning and is expected to show a slight drop in new claims, to around 850,000, following last week’s total of 881,000. These numbers are historically still very high. 

The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker following decent gains posted earlier this week. Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $37.50. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.7% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the producer price index, monthly wholesale trade, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been at least temporarily negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 3,424.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,447.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,350.00 and then at 3,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,455.25 and then at 11,585.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,200.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 177 21/32 and then at 178 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 176 28/32 and then at 176 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 139.23.0 and then at 139.27.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.06.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1874 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1825 and then at this week’s low of 1.1777. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $38.18 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $36.13 and then at $35.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has become a non-market factor as harvest approaches. Demand from China remains strong for soybeans and even some corn. Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is coming into focus. Many believe the report will favor the bears. Trading is likely to be quieter today ahead of that midday report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. European shares were mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stocks are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following recent strong selling pressure that has rattled many traders and investors. The marketplace is presently shrugging off overnight news that AstraZeneca has halted its Covid-19 vaccine trials because one person in the trial contracted an unexplained illness. Temporarily halting such trials is not uncommon, experts said.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $37.50, on a corrective bounce following sharp losses recently. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.67% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, as bulls try to recover from the recent sharp sell off. Prices overnight did hit a four-week low. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in serious jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,400.00 and then at 3,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,295.50 and then at 3,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce after hitting a four-week low overnight. Bulls have the overall technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,400.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at the overnight low of 10,935.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 178 16/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at 177 16/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 176 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.23.0 and then at 139.27.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 139.06.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low on more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1813 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1874. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1750 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a six-week low Tuesday. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been soundly negated. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $38.00 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $36.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Demand from China remains strong for soybeans and even some corn. Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is coming into focus. Trading is likely to be quieter until that midday report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff