Daily Morning Report

Monday, August 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes have had a very good month of August, with the Nasdaq and S&P again hitting record highs overnight. Traders and investors remain in upbeat moods heading into the fall. The pandemic is still seriously gripping parts of the U.S. and the world but hopes are high that a credible vaccine will arrive sooner rather than later. Also, most reckon that major governments will not put their economies on nearly complete lockdown again even if a second wave of the virus hits later this fall.

In overnight news, the official gauge of China’s factory activity rose at a slower pace in August that expected. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 51.0 in August from 51.1 in July. The reading was lower than the average forecast of 51.2. However, the August reading was the sixth consecutive month that the index was above the 50 mark that suggests expansion.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $43.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index lower and near its recent two-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.74% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,524.50 and then at 3,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Friday’s low of 3,480.75 and then at Thursday’s low of 3,464.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high overnight. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 12,091.75 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term chart advantage as prices are trending lower. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 176 21/32 and then at 177 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 175 27/32 and then at last week’s low of 175 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly recently and bears are working on starting a price downtrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.10.5 and then at 139.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 138.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for four months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the August high of 1.1973 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1887 and then at Friday’s low of 1.1814. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. A

Wall Street Journal report last week said crude oil futures options traders are using a “strangle” strategy (selling puts and calls) to keep price action sideways and volatility low. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the August high of $43.78 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $42.90 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are in near-term technical control, amid deteriorating late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt was mostly dry over the weekend and USDA will likely report deteriorating crop conditions Monday afternoon. Speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, August 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mixed weaker openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes have had a very good week, with the Nasdaq and S&P hitting record highs and are on track for the best week in two months.

The marketplace is still digesting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday, in which he outlined the U.S. central bank’s new strategy to loosen its inflation guidelines and focus more on fuller employment. Most market watchers now reckon U.S. interest rates will remain low for a very long time. The shift in Fed policy will mostly likely reignite “the inflation trade,” which has historically been bullish for hard assets like raw commodities. In recent years the prospects for very low inflation and even deflation had muzzled many commodity market prices.

The Japanese yen appreciated versus the greenback Friday on news that Japan Prime Minister Abe is resigning due to health reasons.

The U.S. Republican convention ended Thursday, with the marketplace paying little attention to the event this week.

European shares were weaker Friday as Covid-19 cases are on the rise again in much of Europe.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $43.00 a barrel. Hurricane Laura lashed Texas and Louisiana and shut in much of the U.S. Gulf coast oil and gas installations. That pushed gasoline futures prices to a five-month high this week. The U.S. dollar index lower and back near its recent two-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.75% today. Bond yields have risen this week, amid better trader and investor risk attitudes amid some recent better-than-expected U.S. economic data.

Gold prices are solidly higher Friday morning after a wild trading session Thursday, in which the yellow metal’s price was up over $30 at one point and down over $35 at another.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, advance economic indicators, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,509.50 and then at 3,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,464.75 and then at Wednesday’s low of 3,436.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly weaker after Thursday hitting another record high. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s record high of 12,046.00 and then at 12,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,834.75 and then at 11,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-week low overnight. Bears have gained the overall near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 176 16/32 and then at 177 even. Shorter-term support lies at 176 even and then at the overnight low of 175 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly this week and bears are working on starting a price downtrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.08.0 and then at 139.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.28.5 and then at the overnight low of 138.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for over three months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1923 and then at the August high of 1.1973. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1814 and then at this week’s low of 1.1776. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. A Wall Street Journal report this week said crude oil futures options traders are using a “strangle” strategy (selling puts and calls) to keep price action sideways and volatility low. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $43.78 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.50 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a very good week, amid deteriorating late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Meantime, China is keeping up its solid pace of purchases of U.S. corn and soybeans. Speculators are also showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, August 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. After the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes hit record highs this week, U.S. traders and investors are now a bit more risk averse late this week, as racial tensions in America are on the rise again. Several professional sports teams opted not to play their games Wednesday, following police shooting an African American man in Wisconsin. Also, Hurricane Laura is set to inflict catastrophic damage on the Louisiana and eastern Texas coast Thursday, including a storm surge of sea water weather officials are calling “un-survivable.”

Focus of the marketplace today will also be on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on the U.S. economy, as part of the annual Jackson Hole meeting that is this year virtual. The speech is scheduled to start at 9:10 a.m. eastern time. Many expect inflation to be a main topic of Powell’s speech. Said one analyst in a dispatch this morning: “So far, we have only seen rising prices in asset classes such as stocks in particular, but throughout the past decade, the consumer price index has averaged around 1.5%, so missing the Fed’s 2% inflation target. ‘Average inflation targeting’ is the new formula expected to be endorsed by Powell today. It’s a policy framework that allows inflation to run above or below the 2% target, but given that inflation has been running below target for several years, the objective would be to allow price rises to overshoot for more extended periods before tightening policy. However, the idea of allowing inflation to run above target for extended periods is hard to sell to politicians, so it will be interesting to see how Powell is likely to package the new policy framework.”

Rallying prices in many raw commodity markets just recently appear to be sensing that inflation, and maybe even problematic inflation, could be in store in the coming months, following the massive infusion of central bank liquidity into the global financial system in recent months, to stimulate economies crippled by Covid-19 lockdowns.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly down and trading around $43.30 a barrel. Hurricane Laura is lashing Texas and Louisiana and has shut in much of the U.S. Gulf coast oil and gas installations. That pushed gasoline futures prices to a five-month high this week. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker and not far above its recent two-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the revised estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, but close to this week’s record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,483.50 and then at 3,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,436.75 and then at this week’s low of 3,393.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly weaker after Wednesday hitting another record high. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,001.50 and then at 12,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the  overall near-term chart advantage but have faded this week and need to stabilize the market soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 178 16/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at 178 even and then at this week’s low of 177 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.14.0 and then at 139.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.00.5 and then at the August low of 138.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for over three months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1855 and then at 1.1888. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1776 and then at last week’s low of 1.1758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $43.78 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.50 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a very good week, amid deteriorating late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Meantime, China is keeping up its solid pace of purchases of U.S. corn and soybeans. Focus of the marketplace late this week is on inflation—a bullish element for raw commodity markets. Speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, including the Nasdaq again at a record high. The U.S. stock indexes may be ready to pause at mid-week after hitting record highs in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 this week. The past several weeks have seen generally less volatile and quieter trading conditions, as U.S. and European traders and investors focus more on family vacations and less on markets. Look for more active trading in many stock and financial markets following the U.S. Labor Day holiday.

Traders and investors are watching two big events this week: the U.S. Republican national convention in which President Trump will accept his party’s nomination. So far the convention has not been markets-sensitive. Also, the annual Federal Reserve Symposium that has been traditionally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming but this year will be virtual, begins Thursday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Thursday morning. Traders will closely scrutinize his comments on the strength of the U.S. economic recovery and prospects for growth in the coming months.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly down and trading around $43.23 a barrel. Hurricane Laura in the Gulf of Mexico is bearing down on Texas and Louisiana and has shut in much of the U.S. Gulf coast oil and gas installations. That has pushed gasoline futures prices to a five-month high this week. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer but not far above its recent two-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note has risen to around 0.7% this week, in another sign of rising confidence in the marketplace.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and close to this week’s record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,450.00 and then at 3,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,426.75 and then at this week’s low of 3,393.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,800.00 and then at 11,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,650.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,528.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower again in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the  overall near-term chart advantage but are fading this week and need to stabilize the market soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 178 15/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at the August low of 177 16/32 and then at 177 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage but are fading this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.09.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 139.15.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.00.0 and then at the August low of 138.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for over three months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 1.1888 and then at 1.1926. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1789 and then at last week’s low of 1.1758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $43.57 and then at the August high of $43.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.50 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are narrowly mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a very good week, amid deteriorating late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Meantime, China is keeping up its solid pace of purchases of U.S. corn and soybeans. Speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff