Daily Morning Report

Thursday, September 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs Wednesday and are due for normal corrective pullbacks in their existing uptrends. There also may be a bit more risk aversion in the marketplace Thursday, on reports the U.S. will impose restrictions on its Chinese diplomats, in retaliation for China doing the same to its U.S. diplomats.

On the bright side, the London Financial Times reported the Covid-19 herd immunity may be closer than previously thought. The story said tests for antibodies may be dramatically underestimating the proportion of people who have been infected with the virus, according to scientists. Other reports also said U.S. health officials are saying a vaccine could be ready for distribution by November 1.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower, hitting a four-week low and trading around $40.60 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher again today on a corrective bounce after hitting a two-year low Tuesday. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.65% today.

In the U.S. today, focus will be on the weekly jobless claims report, which is expected to show claims up around 950,000. Traders are also awaiting Friday’s employment situation report for August from the U.S. Labor Department, expected to show non-farm payrolls gains of around 1.3 million.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, revised productivity and costs, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, and monthly retail chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading, on a normal corrective pullback from recent strong gains that saw prices hit a record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,587.00 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,526.25 and then at 3,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from recent strong gains that saw prices hit a record high Wednesday. Bulls remain in strong overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,465.25 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,172.25 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 179 2/32 and then at 179 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 178 15/32 and then at 178 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.24.5 and then at 139.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 139.14.5 and then at 139.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker on more profit taking after hitting a 1.5-year high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for four months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1879 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1814 and then at 1.1790. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading late this week. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $41.79 and then at $42.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $40.64 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are still in near-term technical control. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, especially how much demand is coming from China in the latest week. The U.S. corn and soybean crops are now heading into the stretch toward harvest, which means the recent dry and hot weather has now mostly been factored into prices. Thus focus will be more on early harvest progress and export demand, and less on weather—unless there is frost in the forecast.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mostly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The Nasdaq hit another record high overnight, with the S&P again hitting a record high Monday. Stock splits and the Dow Index realignment Monday have helped to boost the indexes early this week.

In focus today are manufacturing surveys for August from the major economies. The Euro zone August manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 51.7, which was in line with expectations but a bit below July’s reading of 51.8. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. Meantime, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for August was 53.1 versus 52.8 in July and 52.5 forecast. The China August PMI is reportedly the best in over 10 years. U.S. PMI numbers are out later this morning, with the August PMI forecast at 53.5.

The Chinese yuan has appreciated to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in more than a year, currently trading around 6.85 to the greenback, due in part to the Chinese economy getting closer to being back to full speed than that of the U.S., following the Covid-19 lockdowns. Higher interest rates in China are also drawing more global investor interest in China assets.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $43.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index lower hit a two-year low overnight. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.725% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near Monday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s record high of 3,524.50 and then at 3,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,480.75 and then at 3,464.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high overnight. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,300.00 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,093.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term chart advantage as prices are trending lower. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 177 15/32 and then at 178 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 175 27/32 and then at last week’s low of 175 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently and bears are working on starting a price downtrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.12.0 and then at Monday’s high of 139.14.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 139.03.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher and hit a 1.5-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for four months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2001 and then at 1.2050. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1938 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1887. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the August high of $43.78 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $42.77 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are in near-term technical control, amid declining late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remains mostly dry. Demand from China remains strong. Speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes have had a very good month of August, with the Nasdaq and S&P again hitting record highs overnight. Traders and investors remain in upbeat moods heading into the fall. The pandemic is still seriously gripping parts of the U.S. and the world but hopes are high that a credible vaccine will arrive sooner rather than later. Also, most reckon that major governments will not put their economies on nearly complete lockdown again even if a second wave of the virus hits later this fall.

In overnight news, the official gauge of China’s factory activity rose at a slower pace in August that expected. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 51.0 in August from 51.1 in July. The reading was lower than the average forecast of 51.2. However, the August reading was the sixth consecutive month that the index was above the 50 mark that suggests expansion.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $43.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index lower and near its recent two-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.74% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,524.50 and then at 3,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Friday’s low of 3,480.75 and then at Thursday’s low of 3,464.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high overnight. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 12,091.75 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term chart advantage as prices are trending lower. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 176 21/32 and then at 177 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 175 27/32 and then at last week’s low of 175 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly recently and bears are working on starting a price downtrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.10.5 and then at 139.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 138.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for four months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the August high of 1.1973 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1887 and then at Friday’s low of 1.1814. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. A

Wall Street Journal report last week said crude oil futures options traders are using a “strangle” strategy (selling puts and calls) to keep price action sideways and volatility low. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the August high of $43.78 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $42.90 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are in near-term technical control, amid deteriorating late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt was mostly dry over the weekend and USDA will likely report deteriorating crop conditions Monday afternoon. Speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, August 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mixed weaker openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes have had a very good week, with the Nasdaq and S&P hitting record highs and are on track for the best week in two months.

The marketplace is still digesting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday, in which he outlined the U.S. central bank’s new strategy to loosen its inflation guidelines and focus more on fuller employment. Most market watchers now reckon U.S. interest rates will remain low for a very long time. The shift in Fed policy will mostly likely reignite “the inflation trade,” which has historically been bullish for hard assets like raw commodities. In recent years the prospects for very low inflation and even deflation had muzzled many commodity market prices.

The Japanese yen appreciated versus the greenback Friday on news that Japan Prime Minister Abe is resigning due to health reasons.

The U.S. Republican convention ended Thursday, with the marketplace paying little attention to the event this week.

European shares were weaker Friday as Covid-19 cases are on the rise again in much of Europe.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $43.00 a barrel. Hurricane Laura lashed Texas and Louisiana and shut in much of the U.S. Gulf coast oil and gas installations. That pushed gasoline futures prices to a five-month high this week. The U.S. dollar index lower and back near its recent two-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.75% today. Bond yields have risen this week, amid better trader and investor risk attitudes amid some recent better-than-expected U.S. economic data.

Gold prices are solidly higher Friday morning after a wild trading session Thursday, in which the yellow metal’s price was up over $30 at one point and down over $35 at another.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, advance economic indicators, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,509.50 and then at 3,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,464.75 and then at Wednesday’s low of 3,436.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly weaker after Thursday hitting another record high. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s record high of 12,046.00 and then at 12,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,834.75 and then at 11,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-week low overnight. Bears have gained the overall near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 176 16/32 and then at 177 even. Shorter-term support lies at 176 even and then at the overnight low of 175 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly this week and bears are working on starting a price downtrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.08.0 and then at 139.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.28.5 and then at the overnight low of 138.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for over three months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1923 and then at the August high of 1.1973. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1814 and then at this week’s low of 1.1776. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. A Wall Street Journal report this week said crude oil futures options traders are using a “strangle” strategy (selling puts and calls) to keep price action sideways and volatility low. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $43.78 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.50 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a very good week, amid deteriorating late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Meantime, China is keeping up its solid pace of purchases of U.S. corn and soybeans. Speculators are also showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff