Daily Morning Report

Thursday, September 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are wondering if the rebound in the U.S. stock market will continue, following solid gains posted in the stock indexes Wednesday. The months of September and October can produce serious turbulence in the stock and financial markets.

The focus for the global marketplace Thursday is the regular monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank. The ECB is not expected to make any significant changes in policy, but traders are wondering if the central bank will mention the strength of the Euro currency against the U.S. dollar recently. Also, the ECB could revise its outlook on inflation after the Federal Reserve backed off on its stricter inflation constricts last month.

The weekly U.S. jobless claims report is also out Thursday morning and is expected to show a slight drop in new claims, to around 850,000, following last week’s total of 881,000. These numbers are historically still very high. 

The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker following decent gains posted earlier this week. Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $37.50. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.7% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the producer price index, monthly wholesale trade, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been at least temporarily negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 3,424.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,447.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,350.00 and then at 3,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,455.25 and then at 11,585.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,200.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 177 21/32 and then at 178 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 176 28/32 and then at 176 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 139.23.0 and then at 139.27.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.06.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1874 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1825 and then at this week’s low of 1.1777. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $38.18 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $36.13 and then at $35.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has become a non-market factor as harvest approaches. Demand from China remains strong for soybeans and even some corn. Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is coming into focus. Many believe the report will favor the bears. Trading is likely to be quieter today ahead of that midday report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. European shares were mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stocks are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following recent strong selling pressure that has rattled many traders and investors. The marketplace is presently shrugging off overnight news that AstraZeneca has halted its Covid-19 vaccine trials because one person in the trial contracted an unexplained illness. Temporarily halting such trials is not uncommon, experts said.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $37.50, on a corrective bounce following sharp losses recently. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.67% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, as bulls try to recover from the recent sharp sell off. Prices overnight did hit a four-week low. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in serious jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,400.00 and then at 3,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,295.50 and then at 3,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce after hitting a four-week low overnight. Bulls have the overall technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,400.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at the overnight low of 10,935.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 178 16/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at 177 16/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 176 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.23.0 and then at 139.27.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 139.06.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low on more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1813 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1874. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1750 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a six-week low Tuesday. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been soundly negated. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $38.00 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $36.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Demand from China remains strong for soybeans and even some corn. Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is coming into focus. Trading is likely to be quieter until that midday report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly firmer and European shares mostly weaker. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. After a long U.S. holiday weekend and the unofficial end to summer, traders and investors are  more risk averse to start the U.S. trading week. President Trump on Monday said he might “decouple” the U.S. from China, in the latest salvo in a running feud between the world’s two largest economies.

In other overnight news, the Eurozone’s GDP in the second quarter came in a bit better than expected, at down a revised 11.8% from the first quarter and down 14.7%, year-on-year.

The British pound is seeing selling pressure as the U.K. and the European Union move closer to separating (Brexit).

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower, hitting a six-week low and trading around $38.25 a barrel. Leading oil producer Saudi Arabia has announced it is cutting its oil prices due to likely decreasing demand for crude in the coming months. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.685% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the employment trends index, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, as bulls are wobbly following recent price pressure, including last Friday’s bearish weekly low close, which begins to suggest a market top is in place. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,447.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 3,484.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,347.75 and then at 3,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading on follow-through pressure from last week, including Friday’s bearish weekly low close that is one clue that a market top is in place. Bulls still have the overall technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, also suggesting a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,400.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,142.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 178 even and then at 178 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 176 28/32 and then at 176 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 139.20.0 and then at 139.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.08.0 and then at Friday’s low of 139.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower on more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1874 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1803 and then at 1.1790. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been soundly negated. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $39.00 and then at the overnight high of $39.59. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.50 and then at $37.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The key “outside markets” are bearish for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is solidly higher and crude oil prices are solidly lower. Weather in the Corn Belt this week is expected to be much cooler but serious frost is not in the forecast. Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is coming into focus. Traders today will closely examine the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European indexes mostly up and Asian indexes mostly down. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs Wednesday and saw big downside corrections Thursday that unnerved stock traders and investors. The months of September and October can be extra turbulent for stock and financial markets.

The marketplace is awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for August from the Labor Department, expected to show non-farm payrolls gains of around 1.3 million. A big miss from the forecast is likely to jolt many markets.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $41.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady today. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.65% today.

There is no other U.S. economic data due for release Friday. U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday and the unofficial end of summer.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a tepid bounce after strong losses suffered Thursday. Today’s price action is extra important. Strong follow-through selling pressure and a weekly low close today would be one clue that a market top is in place. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,500.00 and then at 3,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,424.50 and then at 3,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on follow-through pressure from strong losses Thursday. Today’s price action is extra important. Strong follow-through selling pressure and a weekly low close today would be one clue that a market top is in place. Bulls still have the firm overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,582.50 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are now on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 179 11/32 and then at this week’s high of 180 6/32. Shorter-term support lies at 178 15/32 and then at 178 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.27.5 and then at this week’s high of 140.00.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 139.18.5 and then at 139.14.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly weaker on more profit taking after hitting a 1.5-year high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for four months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1954 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1814 and then at 1.1790. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $42.00 and then at $42.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $40.84 and then at this week’s low of $40.22. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. Bulls are in near-term technical control. The U.S. corn and soybean crops are into the final stretch toward harvest, which means the recent dry and hot weather has been factored into prices. Thus focus will be more on early harvest progress and export demand, and less on weather—unless there is frost in the forecast. Next week is expected to be much cooler but serious frost is not being mentioned by weather forecasters.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff