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Daily Morning Report

U.S. stock market wobbly to start short trading week

September 8, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly firmer and European shares mostly weaker. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. After a long U.S. holiday weekend and the unofficial end to summer, traders and investors are  more risk averse to start the U.S. trading week. President Trump on Monday said he might “decouple” the U.S. from China, in the latest salvo in a running feud between the world’s two largest economies.

In other overnight news, the Eurozone’s GDP in the second quarter came in a bit better than expected, at down a revised 11.8% from the first quarter and down 14.7%, year-on-year.

The British pound is seeing selling pressure as the U.K. and the European Union move closer to separating (Brexit).

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower, hitting a six-week low and trading around $38.25 a barrel. Leading oil producer Saudi Arabia has announced it is cutting its oil prices due to likely decreasing demand for crude in the coming months. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.685% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the employment trends index, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, as bulls are wobbly following recent price pressure, including last Friday’s bearish weekly low close, which begins to suggest a market top is in place. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,447.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 3,484.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,347.75 and then at 3,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading on follow-through pressure from last week, including Friday’s bearish weekly low close that is one clue that a market top is in place. Bulls still have the overall technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, also suggesting a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,400.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,142.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 178 even and then at 178 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 176 28/32 and then at 176 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 139.20.0 and then at 139.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.08.0 and then at Friday’s low of 139.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower on more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1874 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1803 and then at 1.1790. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been soundly negated. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $39.00 and then at the overnight high of $39.59. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.50 and then at $37.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The key “outside markets” are bearish for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is solidly higher and crude oil prices are solidly lower. Weather in the Corn Belt this week is expected to be much cooler but serious frost is not in the forecast. Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is coming into focus. Traders today will closely examine the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. jobs data could be big markets-mover

September 4, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European indexes mostly up and Asian indexes mostly down. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs Wednesday and saw big downside corrections Thursday that unnerved stock traders and investors. The months of September and October can be extra turbulent for stock and financial markets.

The marketplace is awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for August from the Labor Department, expected to show non-farm payrolls gains of around 1.3 million. A big miss from the forecast is likely to jolt many markets.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $41.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady today. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.65% today.

There is no other U.S. economic data due for release Friday. U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday and the unofficial end of summer.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a tepid bounce after strong losses suffered Thursday. Today’s price action is extra important. Strong follow-through selling pressure and a weekly low close today would be one clue that a market top is in place. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,500.00 and then at 3,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,424.50 and then at 3,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on follow-through pressure from strong losses Thursday. Today’s price action is extra important. Strong follow-through selling pressure and a weekly low close today would be one clue that a market top is in place. Bulls still have the firm overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,582.50 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are now on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 179 11/32 and then at this week’s high of 180 6/32. Shorter-term support lies at 178 15/32 and then at 178 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.27.5 and then at this week’s high of 140.00.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 139.18.5 and then at 139.14.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly weaker on more profit taking after hitting a 1.5-year high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for four months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1954 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1814 and then at 1.1790. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $42.00 and then at $42.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $40.84 and then at this week’s low of $40.22. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. Bulls are in near-term technical control. The U.S. corn and soybean crops are into the final stretch toward harvest, which means the recent dry and hot weather has been factored into prices. Thus focus will be more on early harvest progress and export demand, and less on weather—unless there is frost in the forecast. Next week is expected to be much cooler but serious frost is not being mentioned by weather forecasters.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Price uptrend in crude oil rolls over

September 3, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

The Nymex crude oil bulls have faded late this week and a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated as prices hit a four-week low. Now, look for sideways-at-best trading in crude for the near term. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

A bit more risk aversion seen in marketplace Thursday

September 3, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs Wednesday and are due for normal corrective pullbacks in their existing uptrends. There also may be a bit more risk aversion in the marketplace Thursday, on reports the U.S. will impose restrictions on its Chinese diplomats, in retaliation for China doing the same to its U.S. diplomats.

On the bright side, the London Financial Times reported the Covid-19 herd immunity may be closer than previously thought. The story said tests for antibodies may be dramatically underestimating the proportion of people who have been infected with the virus, according to scientists. Other reports also said U.S. health officials are saying a vaccine could be ready for distribution by November 1.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower, hitting a four-week low and trading around $40.60 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher again today on a corrective bounce after hitting a two-year low Tuesday. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.65% today.

In the U.S. today, focus will be on the weekly jobless claims report, which is expected to show claims up around 950,000. Traders are also awaiting Friday’s employment situation report for August from the U.S. Labor Department, expected to show non-farm payrolls gains of around 1.3 million.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, revised productivity and costs, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, and monthly retail chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading, on a normal corrective pullback from recent strong gains that saw prices hit a record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,587.00 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,526.25 and then at 3,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from recent strong gains that saw prices hit a record high Wednesday. Bulls remain in strong overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,465.25 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,172.25 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 179 2/32 and then at 179 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 178 15/32 and then at 178 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.24.5 and then at 139.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 139.14.5 and then at 139.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker on more profit taking after hitting a 1.5-year high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for four months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1879 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1814 and then at 1.1790. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading late this week. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $41.79 and then at $42.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $40.64 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are still in near-term technical control. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, especially how much demand is coming from China in the latest week. The U.S. corn and soybean crops are now heading into the stretch toward harvest, which means the recent dry and hot weather has now mostly been factored into prices. Thus focus will be more on early harvest progress and export demand, and less on weather—unless there is frost in the forecast.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock market bulls head into Sept. with full head of steam

September 1, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mostly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The Nasdaq hit another record high overnight, with the S&P again hitting a record high Monday. Stock splits and the Dow Index realignment Monday have helped to boost the indexes early this week.

In focus today are manufacturing surveys for August from the major economies. The Euro zone August manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 51.7, which was in line with expectations but a bit below July’s reading of 51.8. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. Meantime, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for August was 53.1 versus 52.8 in July and 52.5 forecast. The China August PMI is reportedly the best in over 10 years. U.S. PMI numbers are out later this morning, with the August PMI forecast at 53.5.

The Chinese yuan has appreciated to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in more than a year, currently trading around 6.85 to the greenback, due in part to the Chinese economy getting closer to being back to full speed than that of the U.S., following the Covid-19 lockdowns. Higher interest rates in China are also drawing more global investor interest in China assets.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $43.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index lower hit a two-year low overnight. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.725% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near Monday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s record high of 3,524.50 and then at 3,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,480.75 and then at 3,464.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high overnight. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,300.00 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,093.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term chart advantage as prices are trending lower. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 177 15/32 and then at 178 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 175 27/32 and then at last week’s low of 175 5/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently and bears are working on starting a price downtrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.12.0 and then at Monday’s high of 139.14.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 139.03.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher and hit a 1.5-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for four months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2001 and then at 1.2050. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1938 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1887. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the August high of $43.78 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $42.77 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are in near-term technical control, amid declining late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remains mostly dry. Demand from China remains strong. Speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Lumber market is on fire!

August 31, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

The lumber futures market continues to scream higher and set new record highs on a regular basis in the process. Demand for the fiber is strong amid the home-improvement boom that has come from the Covid-19 pandemic. Lumber could also be a leading indicator for rising and even problematic price inflation occurring down the road. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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