Daily Morning Report

Thursday, August 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. After the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes hit record highs this week, U.S. traders and investors are now a bit more risk averse late this week, as racial tensions in America are on the rise again. Several professional sports teams opted not to play their games Wednesday, following police shooting an African American man in Wisconsin. Also, Hurricane Laura is set to inflict catastrophic damage on the Louisiana and eastern Texas coast Thursday, including a storm surge of sea water weather officials are calling “un-survivable.”

Focus of the marketplace today will also be on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on the U.S. economy, as part of the annual Jackson Hole meeting that is this year virtual. The speech is scheduled to start at 9:10 a.m. eastern time. Many expect inflation to be a main topic of Powell’s speech. Said one analyst in a dispatch this morning: “So far, we have only seen rising prices in asset classes such as stocks in particular, but throughout the past decade, the consumer price index has averaged around 1.5%, so missing the Fed’s 2% inflation target. ‘Average inflation targeting’ is the new formula expected to be endorsed by Powell today. It’s a policy framework that allows inflation to run above or below the 2% target, but given that inflation has been running below target for several years, the objective would be to allow price rises to overshoot for more extended periods before tightening policy. However, the idea of allowing inflation to run above target for extended periods is hard to sell to politicians, so it will be interesting to see how Powell is likely to package the new policy framework.”

Rallying prices in many raw commodity markets just recently appear to be sensing that inflation, and maybe even problematic inflation, could be in store in the coming months, following the massive infusion of central bank liquidity into the global financial system in recent months, to stimulate economies crippled by Covid-19 lockdowns.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly down and trading around $43.30 a barrel. Hurricane Laura is lashing Texas and Louisiana and has shut in much of the U.S. Gulf coast oil and gas installations. That pushed gasoline futures prices to a five-month high this week. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker and not far above its recent two-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the revised estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, but close to this week’s record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,483.50 and then at 3,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,436.75 and then at this week’s low of 3,393.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly weaker after Wednesday hitting another record high. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,001.50 and then at 12,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the  overall near-term chart advantage but have faded this week and need to stabilize the market soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 178 16/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at 178 even and then at this week’s low of 177 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.14.0 and then at 139.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.00.5 and then at the August low of 138.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for over three months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1855 and then at 1.1888. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1776 and then at last week’s low of 1.1758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $43.78 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.50 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a very good week, amid deteriorating late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Meantime, China is keeping up its solid pace of purchases of U.S. corn and soybeans. Focus of the marketplace late this week is on inflation—a bullish element for raw commodity markets. Speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, including the Nasdaq again at a record high. The U.S. stock indexes may be ready to pause at mid-week after hitting record highs in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 this week. The past several weeks have seen generally less volatile and quieter trading conditions, as U.S. and European traders and investors focus more on family vacations and less on markets. Look for more active trading in many stock and financial markets following the U.S. Labor Day holiday.

Traders and investors are watching two big events this week: the U.S. Republican national convention in which President Trump will accept his party’s nomination. So far the convention has not been markets-sensitive. Also, the annual Federal Reserve Symposium that has been traditionally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming but this year will be virtual, begins Thursday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Thursday morning. Traders will closely scrutinize his comments on the strength of the U.S. economic recovery and prospects for growth in the coming months.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly down and trading around $43.23 a barrel. Hurricane Laura in the Gulf of Mexico is bearing down on Texas and Louisiana and has shut in much of the U.S. Gulf coast oil and gas installations. That has pushed gasoline futures prices to a five-month high this week. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer but not far above its recent two-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note has risen to around 0.7% this week, in another sign of rising confidence in the marketplace.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and close to this week’s record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,450.00 and then at 3,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,426.75 and then at this week’s low of 3,393.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,800.00 and then at 11,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,650.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,528.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower again in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the  overall near-term chart advantage but are fading this week and need to stabilize the market soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 178 15/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at the August low of 177 16/32 and then at 177 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage but are fading this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.09.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 139.15.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.00.0 and then at the August low of 138.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for over three months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 1.1888 and then at 1.1926. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1789 and then at last week’s low of 1.1758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $43.57 and then at the August high of $43.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.50 and then at $42.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are narrowly mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a very good week, amid deteriorating late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. Meantime, China is keeping up its solid pace of purchases of U.S. corn and soybeans. Speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side. Look for more upside price action in the grains in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq again at record highs. Risk appetite is upbeat so far this week. The marketplace breathed a sigh of relief on upbeat news regarding U.S.-China trade talks. Senior trade officials on both sides held a videoconference Monday and reaffirmed the commitment to a partial trade deal agreed upon in January.

A positive German IFO business climate index report on Tuesday helped to boost the Euro currency. The main IFO index rose to 92.6 in August from 90.4 in July and also beat market expectations.

While new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. continue to stymie the world’s largest economy as it tries to regain momentum from the springtime lockdowns, reports say China, the world’s second-largest economy, is making rapid progress on restoring conditions to normal. Most agree that China’s more rapid recovery than the U.S. is due to China’s very strict lockdown and quarantine measures it mandated on its citizens. Still, reports also say China is quietly buying U.S. and other global food products to make up a huge shortfall caused by major flooding, and crop and infrastructure damage, along the Yangtze river. Some traders wonder if this situation could help to jumpstart price inflation in the raw commodity sector.

Traders and investors are looking forward to two big events this week: the U.S. Republican national convention in which President Trump will accept his party’s nomination, and the annual Federal Reserve Symposium that has been traditionally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming but this year will be virtual. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak late this week during the event.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $42.65 a barrel. The hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that is bearing down on the U.S. Gulf coast has pushed gasoline futures prices to a five-month high. The U.S. dollar index is lower and not far above its recent two-year low. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note rose to 6.8% Tuesday, in another sign of rising confidence in the marketplace.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, the S&P-Case-Shiller home price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The saying, “Never short a dull market” is favoring the bulls at present. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,450.00 and then at 3,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,426.75 and then at Monday’s low of 3,393.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and near Monday’s record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s record high of 11,722.50 and then at 11,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,528.25 and then at 11,407.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the  overall near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 179 even and then at the overnight high of 179 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at 178 even and then at the August low of 177 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.15.5 and then at 139.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.00.0 and then at the August low of 138.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for over three months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 1.1888 and then at 1.1926. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1789 and then at last week’s low of 1.1758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $43.29 and then at the August high of $43.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.00 and then at last week’s low of $41.46. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly up in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls continue to make steady progress in pushing prices up from the August lows, amid less-than-ideal late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. USDA Monday afternoon lowered its good to excellent ratings for both corn and soybeans. Meantime, China is keeping up its steady pace of purchases of mostly U.S. soybeans. Speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I’m back from a week’s vacation in the U.S. Rocky Mountain wilderness. Thanks for all the kind and concerned emails to me, wondering where I was. I must really like what I do because I look forward to getting back to serving you, my valued readers.—Jim

Global stock markets were higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs. Risk appetite is upbeat to start the trading week, despite two tropical storms brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and wildfires raging in California and Colorado.

President Trump on Sunday announced an emergency authorization for the use of recovered Covid-19 patient blood plasma to fight off the virus. The global stock markets may have gotten a slight lift from this news.

Meantime, markets are looking past a comment Trump made to Fox News over the weekend that the U.S. does not need to do business with China. China and the U.S. appear to be moving along with their “Phase 1” trade agreement reached in January, with China buying U.S. agricultural products at a steady pace. Reports from Asia said major flooding in China in recent weeks has destroyed large tracts of crop land that will keep China on a hefty food import pace.

Gold prices are higher Monday morning, on some perceived bargain hunting as prices have backed down from the record high scored in early August and are trading below $2,000. A weaker U.S. dollar index Monday is aiding the precious metals market bulls.

Traders and investors are looking forward to two big events this week: the U.S. Republican national convention in which President Trump will accept his party’s nomination, and the annual Federal Reserve Symposium that has been traditionally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming but this year will be virtual. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak late this week during the event.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $42.65 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower and not far above its recent two-year low.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher and hit a record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,425.00 and then at 3,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,393.50 and then at 3,370.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher and hit a record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 11,676.25 and then at 11,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,567.00 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the  firm overall near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 180 even and then at 180 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 179 even and then at 178 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.22.0 and then at 139.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 139.13.5 and then at 139.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending up for over three months. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1888 and then at 1.1926. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1789 and then at last week’s low of 1.1758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been trading sideways at higher levels for weeks. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $43.29 and then at the August high of $43.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.00 and then at last week’s low of $41.46. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls continue to make steady progress in pushing prices up from the August lows, amid less-than-ideal late-season crop conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans. USDA this afternoon is likely to slightly lower its good to excellent ratings for both corn and soybeans. Meantime, China is keeping up its steady pace of purchases of mostly U.S. soybeans. Finally, speculators are showing more interest in the grain futures markets on the long side.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff