Daily Morning Report

Friday, November 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is less keen heading into the weekend.

Fed Chairman Powell on Thursday afternoon leaned hawkish in his comments at an IMF forum in Washington, D.C. He said, “If it becomes appropriate to tighten (U.S. monetary) policy further, we will not hesitate to do so.” Powell added, “We will continue to move carefully, however, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data, and the risk of overtightening.” Bond yields and the U.S. dollar index rose following Powell’s comments, while gold sold off.

Reports overnight said China’s largest bank, ICBC, was hit with a major ransomware attack that could have impacted the U.S. Treasury market. The U.S. bond market sold off (yields rose) following a poorly received 30-year U.S. Treasury auction Thursday afternoon. It’s unclear, however, if the ransomware attack affected Thursday afternoon’s U.S. Treasury auction. The U.S. financial services division of the Chinese bank was targeted, CNBC said. ICBC, also the world’s largest lender by assets, said Thursday its financial services arm experienced a ransomware attack “that resulted in disruption to certain” systems.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.644.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,325.00 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 15,468.75 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,138.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 113 21/32 and then at 114 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 12 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.23.0 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.08.0 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $74.91 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has crept back into the general marketplace recently amid no recent major escalation of violence in the Israel-Hamas war. However, my bias is still that this Middle East situation will deteriorate again to the point of roiling markets—and probably sooner rather than later.

In overnight news, China’s consumer and producer inflation slipped into deflationary territory last month, heightening expectations the world’s second-largest economy needs more government stimulus. China’s October consumer price index fell 0.2%, year-on-year, while the producer price index was down 2.6% in the same period. Food prices fell 4.0% in October, led by a 30% drop in pork prices. Pork is a main consumer staple in China.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher and trading around $75.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.533%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the October high of 4,430.50 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,364.25 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,325.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 15,468.75 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,138.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 12/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 112 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.17.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.0 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up after hitting a 3.5-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $74.91 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report and weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is creeping back into the general marketplace amid no recent major escalation in the Israel-Hamas war. However, recent downbeat economic data from China will temper the stock market bulls.

The marketplace will get some fresh “Fedspeak” today when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addresses a conference in Washington, D.C. The speech is scheduled to begin at 9:15 a.m. EST. It is not known if Powell will discuss U.S. monetary policy specifics.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.577%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and monthly wholesale trade inventories.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the October high of 4,430.50 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,364.25 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,325.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 15,468.75 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,138.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 114 27/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.09.5 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.0 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a 3.5-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.25% to 4.35%, saying inflation is still too high. The central bank had gone four monetary policy meetings in a row with a pause. Barrons reported today the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise rate hike to crack down on inflation may be a precursor to what the U.S. central bank may have to do in the coming months. The Wall Street Journal reported overnight that Minneapolis Fed official Neel Kashkari said he is not convinced U.S. interest rate hikes are done and said he would rather err on side of overtightening.

Meantime, China’s October exports fell 6.4%, year-on-year, which was lower than expected. China’s imports rose a less-than-expected 3.0%, year-on-year.

The Euro zone producer price index for September came in at up 0.5% from August but down 12.4%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.614%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the international trade report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and consumer credit.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,325.50 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,257.50 and then at 15,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 114 even and then at last week’s high of 114 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.07.5 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.0 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways to higher for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.05 and then at this week’s high of $82.24. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading, following some downbeat economic news coming out of China. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff