The U.S. stock indexes are now in near-term price uptrends and have hit multi-week high as the bulls have gained good strength. The historically rocky months of September and October have come and gone and now the bulls are eyeing a seasonal “Santa Claus” rally in the U.S. stock market. There are still economic and geopolitical concerns for equities traders, but veteran market watchers remember the old trading adage that the stock market likes to “climb a wall of worry.” Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
U.S. CPI on deck Tuesday a.m.
Tuesday, November 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has slowly crept back into the general marketplace recently, as there has been no major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, at least from the markets’ point of view.
The U.S. data point of the week comes Tuesday with the release of the consumer price index report for October. CPI is forecast up 3.3%, year-on-year, versus a gain of 3.7% in the September report. The core CPI rate is seen up 4.1% versus 4.1% seen in the September report.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House cited a resumption of U.S./China military communications as a priority. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program. A potential thawing of heretofore icy U.S.-China relations also has traders and investors with more upbeat attitudes this week.
U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday. This is “old hat” for the marketplace and markets are so far not reacting much to a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.62%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index and real earnings. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at 4,475.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,612.75 and then at 15,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,465.25 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 114 1/32 and then at last week’s high of 115 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 107.29.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 107.11.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways-to-higher for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at the November high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0727 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading. Not much new early this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S.-China summit this week
Monday, November 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has been slowly creeping back into the general marketplace recently, as there has been no major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, at least from the markets’ point of view.
On tap this week, U.S. President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House cited a resumption of U.S./China military communications as a priority. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program.
U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $77.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.634%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,435.50 and then at the 4,475.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,612.75 and then at 15,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,400.00 and then at 15,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 114 1/32 and then at last week’s high of 115 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 12 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 107.29.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.00.0 and then at 106.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly USDA crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Gold bulls are fading
The safe-haven gold market has seen its price uptrend on the daily chart negated, amid the Israeli-Hamas war not significantly escalating the past couple weeks. Recent more hawkish “Fedspeak” has further dented bullish enthusiasm in the metals markets. Also, a strong U.S. dollar and down-trending crude oil prices are bearish “outside market” forces working against the precious metals. The gold and silver market bulls are in technical trouble at present. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Less risk appetite Friday
Friday, November 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is less keen heading into the weekend.
Fed Chairman Powell on Thursday afternoon leaned hawkish in his comments at an IMF forum in Washington, D.C. He said, “If it becomes appropriate to tighten (U.S. monetary) policy further, we will not hesitate to do so.” Powell added, “We will continue to move carefully, however, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data, and the risk of overtightening.” Bond yields and the U.S. dollar index rose following Powell’s comments, while gold sold off.
Reports overnight said China’s largest bank, ICBC, was hit with a major ransomware attack that could have impacted the U.S. Treasury market. The U.S. bond market sold off (yields rose) following a poorly received 30-year U.S. Treasury auction Thursday afternoon. It’s unclear, however, if the ransomware attack affected Thursday afternoon’s U.S. Treasury auction. The U.S. financial services division of the Chinese bank was targeted, CNBC said. ICBC, also the world’s largest lender by assets, said Thursday its financial services arm experienced a ransomware attack “that resulted in disruption to certain” systems.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.644.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,325.00 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 15,468.75 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,138.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 113 21/32 and then at 114 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 12 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.23.0 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.08.0 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $74.91 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
- Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
China economy slips into recession
Thursday, November 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, China’s consumer and producer inflation slipped into deflationary territory last month, heightening expectations the world’s second-largest economy needs more government stimulus. China’s October consumer price index fell 0.2%, year-on-year, while the producer price index was down 2.6% in the same period. Food prices fell 4.0% in October, led by a 30% drop in pork prices. Pork is a main consumer staple in China.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher and trading around $75.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.533%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the October high of 4,430.50 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,364.25 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,325.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 15,468.75 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,138.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 12/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 112 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.17.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.0 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up after hitting a 3.5-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $74.91 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report and weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff