The U.S. stock indexes are now just about done with the historically turbulent months of September and October—and they are in solid price downtrends on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to lower, until there is an early, significant technical clue to suggest the price downtrends have petered out. You’ll get those early clues by reading my afternoon reports. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
Central banks in action this week
Tuesday, October 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, the Euro zone got some much tamer inflation news as its consumer price index for October came in up 2.9%, year-on-year, compared to up 4.3% in September. Euro zone third-quarter GDP came in down 0.1% from the second quarter and up 0.1%, year-on-year.
Japan’s central bank left its monetary policy unchanged but said it will “patiently continue monetary easing” until the BOJ achieves stable 2% inflation.
In other news, reports said the World Gold Council says central bank gold-buying surged to 800 tons in the first nine months of this year and could hit a record in 2023.
Focus this week is also on central bank meetings of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. The Fed’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. Most of the marketplace expects the FOMC to pause in its interest-rate-increase cycle. Later this week comes the U.S. employment situation report for October.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.814%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a nearly six-month low last Friday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,225.00 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,143.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,122.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher on short covering after hitting a five-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 14,303.00 and then at last week’s low of 14,140.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 110 16/32 and then at 111 even. Shorter-term support lies at 109 even and then at this week’s low of 108 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 106.22.0 and then at 107.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 106.00.0 and then at 105.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.0721 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0611 and then at last week’s low of 1.0542. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $81.82 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. Not much new in the grains. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Central bank meetings this week
Monday, October 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Focus this week is also on central bank meetings of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. The Fed’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. Most of the marketplace expects the FOMC to pause in its interest-rate-increase cycle. Later this week comes the U.S. employment situation report for October.
Reads a Wall Street Journal story by Nick Timiraos, known to Fed watchers as the closest press link to the U.S. central bank: “Higher bond yields could end the Fed’s historic rate rises.” In the story Timiraos said the recent sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields has helped to crimp consumer and commercial borrowing and thereby has reduced inflationary pressures.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $84.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.875%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a nearly six-month low Friday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,205.00 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,122.25 and then at 4,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a five-month low last Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,140.25 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 110 16/32 and then at 111 even. Shorter-term support lies at 107 28/32 and then at the contract low of 107 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 106.22.0 and then at 107.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 105.24.0 and then at the contract low of 105.10.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0668 and then at this week’s high of 1.0721. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0542 and then at 1.0523. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $83.00 and then at last week’s low of $82.08. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The red-hot bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Gold bulls in technical control
Gold has rallied around $150 an ounce on safe-haven demand following the early-October Hamas terrorist attack in Israel. Gold this week has paused as traders size up the next major development in the Middle East. The smart money reckons the conflict will escalate before it de-escalates. That’s presently keeping a floor under gold prices. With gold hovering around $2,000, the all-time high of $2,085.40, basis nearby Comex futures and scored in May, is in reach for the bulls. During times of keener geopolitical tensions, gold will act on its own as a safe-haven asset, ignoring the key outside markets like crude oil and the U.S. dollar index that typically help to drive gold’s daily price direction. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Markets still watching Middle East
Friday, October 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The marketplace is not reacting strongly to news overnight that the U.S. military struck Iranian-backed militants and their installations in Syria. The U.S. said the strikes were in response to those militants firing missiles and flying drones to attack U.S. interests in the Gulf region.
A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “(U.S.) inflation trends likely to keep Fed rate-hike pause on track.” The marketplace consensus is that the Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy steady at next week’s FOMC meeting.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly up and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.858%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, including the PCE inflation components. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also due out.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a nearly six-month low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,205.00 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,146.25 and then at 4,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a five-month low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 14,459.00 and then at 14,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,140.25 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 110 16/32 and then at 111 even. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 107 28/32 and then at the contract low of 107 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 106.22.0 and then at 107.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 106.00.0 and then at the contract low of 105.10.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0668 and then at this week’s high of 1.0721. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0542 and then at 1.0523. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $87.00 and then at this week’s high of $88.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $83.40 and then at this week’s low of $82.08. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat and the bears have gained fresh downside momentum this week. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The still red-hot bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. 3Q GDP on deck Thursday a.m.
Thursday, October 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the first estimate of the third-quarter GDP, seen coming in at up 4.7%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 2.1% in the second quarter. Inflation readings in the GDP data will also be closely examined.
Meantime, the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting today. The ECB is expected to pause today in its rate-hike cycle.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are down and trading around $84.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.953%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, the advance economic indicators report, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a nearly six-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,204.50 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,171.00 and then at 4,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,257.00 and then at 14,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 110 16/32 and then at 111 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 107 28/32 and then at 107 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 106.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 105.10.5 and then at 105.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have regained power. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $85.59 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $82.08 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat and the bears have gained fresh downside momentum this week. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The red-hot bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff