The silver market has made a strong recovery from the November low and the bulls have momentum on their side, to suggest more price gains in the near term. It’s my bias that the silver market in the near term will push above chart resistance at $24.05 and then challenge the $25.00 level. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
Upbeat trader and investor attitudes this week
Thursday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In other news, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met Wednesday afternoon during the APEC Summit in San Francisco to discuss various geopolitical, trade, and economic issues. Both leaders recognized the need for cooperation to stabilize those issues. Biden aimed to ease tensions with China without appearing weak on the matter. Xi sought foreign investment and export markets to counter China’s economic challenges, including a real-estate crash and excessive debt.
A stopgap spending measure to avoid a U.S. government shutdown on Friday and fund the government into early 2024 was agreed upon by the U.S. Congress and is now headed to President Biden’s desk, allowing U.S. lawmakers to prepare for negotiations on full-year appropriations between the two chambers. Biden is expected to sign the measure into law.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.496%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down after hitting a two-month high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,541.25 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,465.00 and then at 4,430.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down a bit after hitting a 3.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,049.50 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,700.00 and then at 15,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 24/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.12.5 and then at 109.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 108.14.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at this week’s high of $79.77. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $74.91 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were down in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Not much new this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Tame U.S. inflation data boosts risk sentiment
Wednesday, November 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins, following strong gains posted Tuesday that pushed the indexes to multi-week highs.
Trader and investor attitudes are more upbeat at mid-week following Tuesday morning’s U.S. consumer price index report for October came in at up 3.2%, year-on-year. CPI was forecast at up 3.3%, year-on-year, versus a gain of 3.7% in the September report. The core CPI rate was up 4.0% in October, compared to the consensus forecast of up 4.1% and up 4.1% in the September CPI report. This data fell into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve halt its interest-rate-tightening cycle. U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the CPI data and the U.S. dollar index sold off sharply. The U.S. stock indexes rallied strongly on the CPI news.
The U.K. also got some better inflation news at mid-week. Consumer prices were 4.6% higher in October, year-on-year, following a rise of 6.7% in September. The October rise in CPI was the slowest in the U.K. in two years. Some analysts are now saying the better U.K. inflation data will end the Bank of England’s interest-rate-increase cycle.
In other overnight news, China got some slightly better-than-expected economic data when its industrial output for October was reported up 4.6%, year-on-year, versus expectations for a rise of 4.3%.
On tap today, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House wants a resumption of U.S./China military communications. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program. A potential thawing of heretofore icy U.S.-China relations also has traders and investors with more upbeat attitudes this week.
U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday. This is “old hat” for the marketplace and markets are so far not reacting much to a potential U.S. government shutdown. U.S. congressional leaders are presently working on a plan to avert the shutdown.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer after careening to a nine-week low on Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $77.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.469%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the producer price index report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, and manufacturing and trade inventories.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,550.00 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up and hit a 3.5-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 16,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,800.00 and then at 15,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, after hitting a six-week high overnight and posting strong gains Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 115 24/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.10.0 and then at 109.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.16.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading following strong gains Tuesday that pushed prices to a 2.5-month high. Bulls now have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.77 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. Better risk appetite in the marketplace this week is encouraging the speculative grain market bulls to enter the markets on the long side. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. stock market climbing a wall of worry
The U.S. stock indexes are now in near-term price uptrends and have hit multi-week high as the bulls have gained good strength. The historically rocky months of September and October have come and gone and now the bulls are eyeing a seasonal “Santa Claus” rally in the U.S. stock market. There are still economic and geopolitical concerns for equities traders, but veteran market watchers remember the old trading adage that the stock market likes to “climb a wall of worry.” Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
U.S. CPI on deck Tuesday a.m.
Tuesday, November 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has slowly crept back into the general marketplace recently, as there has been no major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, at least from the markets’ point of view.
The U.S. data point of the week comes Tuesday with the release of the consumer price index report for October. CPI is forecast up 3.3%, year-on-year, versus a gain of 3.7% in the September report. The core CPI rate is seen up 4.1% versus 4.1% seen in the September report.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House cited a resumption of U.S./China military communications as a priority. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program. A potential thawing of heretofore icy U.S.-China relations also has traders and investors with more upbeat attitudes this week.
U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday. This is “old hat” for the marketplace and markets are so far not reacting much to a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.62%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index and real earnings. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at 4,475.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,612.75 and then at 15,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,465.25 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 114 1/32 and then at last week’s high of 115 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 107.29.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 107.11.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways-to-higher for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at the November high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0727 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading. Not much new early this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S.-China summit this week
Monday, November 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has been slowly creeping back into the general marketplace recently, as there has been no major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, at least from the markets’ point of view.
On tap this week, U.S. President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House cited a resumption of U.S./China military communications as a priority. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program.
U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $77.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.634%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,435.50 and then at the 4,475.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,612.75 and then at 15,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,400.00 and then at 15,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 114 1/32 and then at last week’s high of 115 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 12 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 107.29.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.00.0 and then at 106.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly USDA crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff