The U.S. stock indexes last week posted their best weekly performances of the year. Generally upbeat corporate earnings reports and a Federal Reserve that is now hinting it could be done raising U.S. interest rates have fueled the stock market bulls. Also, trader and investor attitudes are not as dour as a few weeks ago because the Israeli-Hamas war has not spread to other countries—at least not yet. There are still some economic and geopolitical headwinds looming for the stock market bulls. However, at present the bulls are choosing to adhere to an old trading adage that stock markets like to “climb a wall of worry.” Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
U.S. stock index bulls gain power
Monday, November 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings after posting solid gains last week. There were no major, unexpected developments, markets-wise, on the Israel-Hamas war front over the weekend. That’s allowing traders and investors to focus on an react to more normal market fundamentals.
In overnight news, Bank of Japan governor Ueda said the BOJ will continue its monetary policy easing and yield-curve control policy. He also said he did not think the Japanese government 10-year note yield would stay significantly above 1.0%. That compares to the U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield of around 4.5%. Ueda’s comments were music to the ears of the foreign exchange and financial markets traders who are and have been executing the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential or “carry” trades.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.593%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and the global services purchasing managers index (PMI).
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading, following solid gains posted last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,325.50 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, following good gains seen last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,350.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 114 even and then at last week’s high of 114 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at Friday’s low of 112 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.00.0 and then at 107.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways to higher for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at last Friday’s low of 1.0633. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $83.60 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. jobs report imminent
Friday, November 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.662%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI) and the ISM report on business services.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading, following solid gains on Wednesday and Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,339.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 4,257.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, following good gains Wednesday and Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 15,017.25 and then at 15,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 14,760.00 and then at 14,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 112 31/32 and then at 114 even. Shorter-term support lies at 112 even and then at Thursday’s low of 110 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 107.28.0 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 107.02.5 and then at 106.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0696 and then at the October high of 1.0721. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0588 and then at this week’s low of 1.0536. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $83.42 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the October low of $80.20 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Euro currency bears still have firm chart advantage
The Euro currency futures market has seen a price downtrend line negated as price action the past three weeks has been sideways and choppy at lower levels. The recent sideways trading begins to suggest that a market bottom is in place for the Euro. However, the bulls need to show more power soon and produce an upside “breakout” from the sideways trading range to gain the technical power to then suggest a price uptrend can be sustained. Right now the bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Heavy U.S. data slate to end trading week
Thursday, November 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stocks were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has mostly digested Wednesday’s FOMC meeting results. The Fed did not raise U.S. interest rates, which was what the marketplace expected. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted the central bank might be done raising interest rates for now but did not rule out future rate hikes.
The Bank of England is meeting on its monetary policy Thursday. No changes are expected from the BOE.
Friday comes the U.S. employment situation report for October. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 170,000 compared to a rise of 336,000 in the September report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.718%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the global manufacturing PMI and monthly retail chain store sales.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,300.00 and then at 4,325.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,235.50 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,700.00 and then at 14,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 112 even and then at 113 even. Shorter-term support lies at 110 even and then at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 107.20.0 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.00.0 and then at 106.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0696 and then at the October high of 1.0721. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0588 and then at this week’s low of 1.0536. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $83.42 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the October low of $80.20 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
FOMC results today
Wednesday, November 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stocks were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
Focus at mid-week is on central bank meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The Fed’s FOMC meeting began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. Most of the marketplace expects the FOMC to pause in its interest-rate-increase cycle. The Bank of England meets on its monetary policy Thursday. Friday comes the U.S. employment situation report for October.
In overnight news, China’s private manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) declined more than expected in October. Business confidence over the next 12 months weakened and reached the lowest level since September of 2022. The Caixin manufacturing PMI for October came in at 49.5 versus 50.6 in September and 50.8 expected. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.899%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, domestic auto industry sales and construction spending.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,215.00 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,166.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,143.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,303.00 and then at last week’s low of 14,140.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 110 12/32 and then at 111 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 108 16/32 and then at 108 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 106.21.0 and then at 107.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 105.28.0 and then at 105.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at this week’s high of 1.0696. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0542 and then at 1.0523. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $83.37 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the October low of $80.20 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new in the grains this week. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff