The Nymex crude oil futures market this week hit a 3.5-month low and prices are trending down. The bears have gained the near-term technical advantage and the path of least resistance for prices is now sideways to lower. The downturn in oil prices also has significantly bearish implications for much of the raw commodity sector, as crude oil is its leader. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
Powell speaks Wednesday
Wednesday, November 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is creeping back into the general marketplace amid no recent major escalation in the Israel-Hamas war. However, recent downbeat economic data from China will temper the stock market bulls.
The marketplace will get some fresh “Fedspeak” today when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addresses a conference in Washington, D.C. The speech is scheduled to begin at 9:15 a.m. EST. It is not known if Powell will discuss U.S. monetary policy specifics.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.577%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and monthly wholesale trade inventories.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the October high of 4,430.50 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,364.25 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,325.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 15,468.75 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,138.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 114 27/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.09.5 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.0 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a 3.5-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Downbeat China data and persistent global inflation
Tuesday, November 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, Australia’s central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.25% to 4.35%, saying inflation is still too high. The central bank had gone four monetary policy meetings in a row with a pause. Barrons reported today the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise rate hike to crack down on inflation may be a precursor to what the U.S. central bank may have to do in the coming months. The Wall Street Journal reported overnight that Minneapolis Fed official Neel Kashkari said he is not convinced U.S. interest rate hikes are done and said he would rather err on side of overtightening.
Meantime, China’s October exports fell 6.4%, year-on-year, which was lower than expected. China’s imports rose a less-than-expected 3.0%, year-on-year.
The Euro zone producer price index for September came in at up 0.5% from August but down 12.4%, year-on-year.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.614%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the international trade report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and consumer credit.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,325.50 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,257.50 and then at 15,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 114 even and then at last week’s high of 114 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.07.5 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.0 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways to higher for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.05 and then at this week’s high of $82.24. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading, following some downbeat economic news coming out of China. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. stock index bulls gain power
The U.S. stock indexes last week posted their best weekly performances of the year. Generally upbeat corporate earnings reports and a Federal Reserve that is now hinting it could be done raising U.S. interest rates have fueled the stock market bulls. Also, trader and investor attitudes are not as dour as a few weeks ago because the Israeli-Hamas war has not spread to other countries—at least not yet. There are still some economic and geopolitical headwinds looming for the stock market bulls. However, at present the bulls are choosing to adhere to an old trading adage that stock markets like to “climb a wall of worry.” Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
U.S. stock index bulls gain power
Monday, November 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings after posting solid gains last week. There were no major, unexpected developments, markets-wise, on the Israel-Hamas war front over the weekend. That’s allowing traders and investors to focus on an react to more normal market fundamentals.
In overnight news, Bank of Japan governor Ueda said the BOJ will continue its monetary policy easing and yield-curve control policy. He also said he did not think the Japanese government 10-year note yield would stay significantly above 1.0%. That compares to the U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield of around 4.5%. Ueda’s comments were music to the ears of the foreign exchange and financial markets traders who are and have been executing the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential or “carry” trades.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.593%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and the global services purchasing managers index (PMI).
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading, following solid gains posted last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,325.50 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, following good gains seen last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,350.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 114 even and then at last week’s high of 114 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at Friday’s low of 112 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.00.0 and then at 107.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways to higher for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at last Friday’s low of 1.0633. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $83.60 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. jobs report imminent
Friday, November 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.662%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI) and the ISM report on business services.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading, following solid gains on Wednesday and Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,339.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 4,257.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, following good gains Wednesday and Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 15,017.25 and then at 15,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 14,760.00 and then at 14,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 112 31/32 and then at 114 even. Shorter-term support lies at 112 even and then at Thursday’s low of 110 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 107.28.0 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 107.02.5 and then at 106.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0696 and then at the October high of 1.0721. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0588 and then at this week’s low of 1.0536. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $83.42 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the October low of $80.20 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff