Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, October 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mostly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, China’s government ramped up efforts to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy by issuing 1 trillion ($137 billion) in sovereign bonds to upgrade infrastructure. The news rallied Chinese stock markets.

In other China news, Bloomberg reported the big Chinese property developer Country Garden defaulted on its dollar debt for the first time after failing to complete the payment within a grace period that ended last week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.863%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,290.50 and then at 4,325.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,213.25 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,948.75 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,600.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 110 16/32 and then at 111 even. Shorter-term support lies at 109 even and then at 108 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s overnight high of 106.22.0 and then at 107.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 106.00.0 and then at the contract low of 105.10.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in overall near-term technical control. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are trending up, which are early clues that a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0630 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at $86.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $82.94 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat, although both markets are showing early clues of posting major price bottoms. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The red-hot bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see upside price action in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

There has been no major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas war this week, which has allowed the marketplace to better focus on other matters and to inject a bit more risk appetite into the markets. However, most veteran market watchers know this Middle East situation has the high potential to flare up very quickly and roil the marketplace.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher and trading around $86.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.857%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the U.S. flash services and manufacturing PMIs, and the Richmond Fed business activity survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a five-month low on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,280.75 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,213.25 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a five-month low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,900.00 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,600.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Price action Monday scored a bullish “key reversal” up, which is one technical clue that a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 110 16/32 and then at 111 even. Shorter-term support lies at 109 even and then at 108 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 106.22.0 and then at 107.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 106.00.0 and then at the contract low of 105.10.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-week high overnight. Bears are still in overall near-term technical control. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are starting to trend up, which are early clues that a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0721 and then at 1.0780. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at 1.0523. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat, and neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some more upside price action in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. Over the weekend there were no major military developments on the Israel-Hamas war front. Israel has yet to begin its highly anticipated ground invasion of Gaza.

Focus of traders and investors remains on rhetoric coming from central bankers, especially the Federal Reserve. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “The (U.S.) economy was supposed to slow by new. Instead it’s revving up.” A Barrons headline today says: “Markets are confident Fed done on rates. Why that’s dangerous.” The Barrons story suggests inflation is still not under control and geopolitical risk remains high–underscoring there are still major risks to the global economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $87.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 5.012%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,261.50 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at 4,175.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,716.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 14,877.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 108 5/32 and then at 109 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 107 4/32 and then at 106 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106.00.0 and then at Friday’s high of 106.06.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 105.10.5 and then at 105.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0641 and then at the October high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Still-keen risk aversion in the marketplace early this week has most the grain market bulls skittish. Technicals are overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. However, the meal market is on fire, to suggest soybeans will also see some more upside price action in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, October 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Heightened tensions in the Middle East are sapping trader and investor risk appetite late this week and heading into the weekend. Rising bond yields are also squelching the equities market bulls this week.

Reports overnight said a U.S. warship had to intercept missiles fired at it from Yemen.

The U.S. marketplace highlight of the day Thursday was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York in the afternoon. Powell said U.S. inflation is still too high and slower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down. His comments were nothing new and did little to move the needle on the markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $90.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.948% after briefly pushing above 5.0% on Thursday.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,325.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 4,366.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,250.00 and then at the October low of 4,235.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 15,138.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,796.00 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 109 15/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 110 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 107 22/32 and then at 107 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 106.15.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 105.10.5 and then at 105.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0641 and then at the October high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace late this week has most of the grain market bulls standing on the sidelines. Technicals are overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. However, the meal market is on fire, to suggest soybeans will also see some more upside price action in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff