Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, October 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. While the Israeli-Hamas war remains near the front burner of the marketplace, there have been no major, markets-moving developments over the past week. Traders and investors are starting to focus more on other, more normal economic and business factors that are impacting the marketplace, such as economic reports, earnings reports and central bank rhetoric. But make no mistake, the Middle East conflict will not just fade away and there are likely to be markets-moving surprises develop in the coming days and weeks.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $86.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching around 4.7%.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Tuesday, including the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, the monthly Treasury budget statement and Treasury international capital data. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,414.25 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,354.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,299.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,336.75 and then at the October high of 15,468.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 111 17/32 and then at this week’s high of 112 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 110 even and then at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.08.0 and then at this week’s high of 107.22.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 106.20.0 and then at 106.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at the October high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $88.33 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Less risk appetite in the marketplace at present will likely continue to limit the upside for the grains in the near term. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is past the half-way point and that has been a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There were no major developments in the Middle East over the weekend that moved markets significantly. Still, risk appetite in the general marketplace remains dented as Israel appears poised for an all-out invasion of at least parts of the Gaza strip. The situation remains highly uncertain.

Marketplace focus is also on China’s economy. Broker SP Angel said today in an email dispatch that China’s yuan currency is under pressure as Chinese officials continue to move to restrict cash outflows. The “carry trade” continues to draw capital out of China and into the U.S. dollar, with a U.S.-China yield gap of 1.9% on in the 10-year government bonds. The People’s Bank of China has conducted medium-term lending facility operations of $108 billion to add liquidity to the banking system, said the broker. The PBOC kept the one-year policy loan rate unchanged at 2.5% as expected. Analysts see the moves as an effort to relieve stress on the banking sector. Meantime, property developer Evergrande’s debt sparked a bank run on the Bank of Cangzhou in Hebei province, reports said. Chinese officials are appealing for order following a crowd of people forming and looking to withdraw funds from that bank. “In many respects Evergrande and Country Garden are too big and too important to fail. We expect the Chinese state to avoid its ‘sub-prime, Lehman Bros’ moment and put in new management along with significant state support,” said SP Angel.

The U.S. political and economic situation is also not far from the front burner of the marketplace. Recent “Feds speak” may be leaning a bit less hawkish, but that’s debatable. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads “Chance of a recession ticks below 50%. A recession is no longer the consensus.” Meantime, the U.S. House of Representatives remains without a speaker.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $87.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.689%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey and Treasury monthly budget statement.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,299.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,250.00 and then at Friday’s high of 15,366.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 112 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 114 10/32. Shorter-term support lies at 111 even and then at last week’s low of 110 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.22.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.00.0 and then at 106.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at the October high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace at present will likely limit the upside for the grains in the near term. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. Due out today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, October 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion has up-ticked late this week after Israel ordered the evacuation of over 1 million residents of Gaza. It’s likely that Israel will soon begin its highly anticipated ground invasion of Gaza.

In other overnight news, China got some more downbeat economic data Friday. China’s September exports were down 6.2%, year-on-year, while its imports were also down 6.2%. China’s consumer price index in September was unchanged, year-on-year and compares with a rise of 0.2% in the August report.

Meantime, reports said the U.S. is cracking down on oil tankers smuggling Russian oil and selling it above the West’s sanctioned price. If the crackdown on sanction-rule-breaking oil tankers continues, that would reduce the supply of crude oil on the world market.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $86.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.621%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,299.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,345.00 and then at this week’s high of 15,468.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,100.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 114 10/32 and then at 115 even. Shorter-term support lies at 112 even and then at this week’s low of 110 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.16.0 and then at 108.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.09.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at this week’s high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $84.00 and then at this week’s low of $82.31. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans got friendly USDA report data on Thursday. All the markets are seeing short covering today. Still, keener risk aversion in the marketplace will likely limit the upside for the grains. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. Due out today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, October 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes this week are “climbing a wall of worry” as the turmoil in the Middle East is on the front burner of the market place.

Focus today is also on a key U.S. inflation report: the consumer price index report for September, which is seen coming in at up 4.1%, year-on-year, and compares to the 4.3% rise in the August report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $84.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.565%. Treasury yields have down-ticked this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the Middle East turmoil.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at 4,480.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,366.25 and then at 4,330.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 15,253.00 and then at 15,171.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 114 10/32 and then at 115 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 111 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.11.0 and then at 108.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 107.21.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.02.05. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0668 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0551 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $82.78 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is bearish for the grains. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. Grain traders are looking ahead to this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report, which will provide fresh price direction.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, October 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is still not robust in the marketplace, amid the Israeli-Hamas war that may well escalate in the coming weeks. However, the stock markets have not been seriously roiled, at least not yet. An explanation for this from one veteran market analyst: The Middle East has been turbulent for generations. While the weekend violence in Israel ranks among the worst in the region and is a terrible human tragedy, it is not something new. Traders and investors have had to deal with Middle East instability and violence for decades. Also, as I reported Tuesday, at present the marketplace is apparently not factoring in a serious escalation in the Israel-Hamas war—namely other countries becoming significantly involved.

Traders and investors have also been somewhat assuaged this week by comments from some Federal Reserve officials that sounded less hawkish. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “High bond yields likely to extend Fed’s pause.”

Focus is also on key U.S. economic data today, including the producer price index report for September, which is seen coming in at up 0.3% from October, and compares to the 0.7% rise in the August report. Also due out today is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes from its last meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $85.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.554%. Treasury yields have down-ticked this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the Middle East turmoil.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,419.00 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,366.25 and then at 4,330.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,383.50 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 15,171.75 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 113 25/32 and then at 114 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at the overnight low of 111 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.11.0 and then at 108.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.21.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.02.05. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0658 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0551 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.67 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is bearish for the grains. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. Grain traders are looking ahead to Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff