Daily Morning Report

Friday, October 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion has up-ticked late this week after Israel ordered the evacuation of over 1 million residents of Gaza. It’s likely that Israel will soon begin its highly anticipated ground invasion of Gaza.

In other overnight news, China got some more downbeat economic data Friday. China’s September exports were down 6.2%, year-on-year, while its imports were also down 6.2%. China’s consumer price index in September was unchanged, year-on-year and compares with a rise of 0.2% in the August report.

Meantime, reports said the U.S. is cracking down on oil tankers smuggling Russian oil and selling it above the West’s sanctioned price. If the crackdown on sanction-rule-breaking oil tankers continues, that would reduce the supply of crude oil on the world market.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $86.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.621%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,299.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,345.00 and then at this week’s high of 15,468.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,100.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 114 10/32 and then at 115 even. Shorter-term support lies at 112 even and then at this week’s low of 110 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.16.0 and then at 108.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.09.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at this week’s high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $84.00 and then at this week’s low of $82.31. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans got friendly USDA report data on Thursday. All the markets are seeing short covering today. Still, keener risk aversion in the marketplace will likely limit the upside for the grains. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. Due out today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, October 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes this week are “climbing a wall of worry” as the turmoil in the Middle East is on the front burner of the market place.

Focus today is also on a key U.S. inflation report: the consumer price index report for September, which is seen coming in at up 4.1%, year-on-year, and compares to the 4.3% rise in the August report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $84.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.565%. Treasury yields have down-ticked this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the Middle East turmoil.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at 4,480.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,366.25 and then at 4,330.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 15,253.00 and then at 15,171.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 114 10/32 and then at 115 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 111 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.11.0 and then at 108.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 107.21.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.02.05. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0668 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0551 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $82.78 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is bearish for the grains. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. Grain traders are looking ahead to this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report, which will provide fresh price direction.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, October 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is still not robust in the marketplace, amid the Israeli-Hamas war that may well escalate in the coming weeks. However, the stock markets have not been seriously roiled, at least not yet. An explanation for this from one veteran market analyst: The Middle East has been turbulent for generations. While the weekend violence in Israel ranks among the worst in the region and is a terrible human tragedy, it is not something new. Traders and investors have had to deal with Middle East instability and violence for decades. Also, as I reported Tuesday, at present the marketplace is apparently not factoring in a serious escalation in the Israel-Hamas war—namely other countries becoming significantly involved.

Traders and investors have also been somewhat assuaged this week by comments from some Federal Reserve officials that sounded less hawkish. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “High bond yields likely to extend Fed’s pause.”

Focus is also on key U.S. economic data today, including the producer price index report for September, which is seen coming in at up 0.3% from October, and compares to the 0.7% rise in the August report. Also due out today is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes from its last meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $85.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.554%. Treasury yields have down-ticked this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the Middle East turmoil.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,419.00 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,366.25 and then at 4,330.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,383.50 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 15,171.75 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 113 25/32 and then at 114 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at the overnight low of 111 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.11.0 and then at 108.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.21.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.02.05. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0658 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0551 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.67 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is bearish for the grains. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. Grain traders are looking ahead to Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is keenly focused on the Middle East as Israel has declared war on Hamas. Many veteran market watchers, including this one, have been surprised the marketplace has not reacted more strongly to the major geopolitical crisis. The Wall Street Journal reported financial markets reacted more strongly to last Friday’s U.S. jobs report than they did to the weekend violence in the Middle East that for Israel was the worst in 50 years. One respected CNBC commentator summed it up by saying at present the marketplace is not factoring in a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict, meaning no other countries like Iran, Syria or the U.S. will become significantly involved. Many times when unexpected market shocks like this one occur, traders and investors quickly factor into market prices a worst-case outcome, on a knee-jerk reaction. Then, as the worst-case scenario does not play out, market prices begin to retrace their initial big moves. Not the case this time. This veteran market watcher finds it unlikely the Israel-Hamas war will not significantly involve any of the aforementioned countries, which would mean a significant escalation in the conflict. To put in simply: This matter will very likely get worse before it gets better. Beware traders and investors.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $86.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.67%. The yield has down-ticked a bit early this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the Middle East turmoil.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the Johnson Redbook retail sales report and monthly wholesale trade.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a two-week high. A 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,330.00 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,300.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,100.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far above last Friday’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 112 15/32 and then at 113 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 110 11/32 and then at 110 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.30.5 and then at 108.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.02.05 and then at 106.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower and bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0551 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.67 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is bearish for the grains. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace got a rare, major geopolitical shock over the weekend when Hamas raided Israel, killing hundreds of civilians and taking hostages. Israel retaliated harshly and declared war on Hamas. This is the largest act of violence seen in Israel in 50 years. Risk aversion is high to start the trading week, as the ramifications of the weekend attack by Hamas are huge, both politically and economically. The U.S. is building up its military presence in the Middle East region.

The major Middle East conflict will likely in the coming months impact major economies, including affecting central bank policies. There is also speculation the Israel war with Hamas may even impact the U.S. Congress and the process of selecting a new Speaker of the House of Representatives.

The U.S. government is closed for a federal holiday Monday, so the U.S. Treasury market is closed. However, most markets are open today, including the U.S. Treasury futures markets.

Gold prices are sharply higher on safe-haven demand, while the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries are also seeing “flight-to-quality” buying. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.795%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,358.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,270.00 and then at the October low of 4,235.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. Both are below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,160.25 and then at 15,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,800.00 and then at the September low of 14,586.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far above Friday’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 111 even and then at 112 even. Shorter-term support lies at 110 even and then at the contract low of 109 20/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.20.5 and then at last week’s high of 107.29.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.00.00 and then at 106.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0632 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are sharply up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.67 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. USDA today is closed, so no reports today.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff