Daily Morning Report

Monday, October 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. Over the weekend there were no major military developments on the Israel-Hamas war front. Israel has yet to begin its highly anticipated ground invasion of Gaza.

Focus of traders and investors remains on rhetoric coming from central bankers, especially the Federal Reserve. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “The (U.S.) economy was supposed to slow by new. Instead it’s revving up.” A Barrons headline today says: “Markets are confident Fed done on rates. Why that’s dangerous.” The Barrons story suggests inflation is still not under control and geopolitical risk remains high–underscoring there are still major risks to the global economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $87.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 5.012%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,261.50 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at 4,175.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,716.00 and then at last Friday’s high of 14,877.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 108 5/32 and then at 109 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 107 4/32 and then at 106 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106.00.0 and then at Friday’s high of 106.06.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 105.10.5 and then at 105.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0641 and then at the October high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Still-keen risk aversion in the marketplace early this week has most the grain market bulls skittish. Technicals are overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. However, the meal market is on fire, to suggest soybeans will also see some more upside price action in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, October 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Heightened tensions in the Middle East are sapping trader and investor risk appetite late this week and heading into the weekend. Rising bond yields are also squelching the equities market bulls this week.

Reports overnight said a U.S. warship had to intercept missiles fired at it from Yemen.

The U.S. marketplace highlight of the day Thursday was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York in the afternoon. Powell said U.S. inflation is still too high and slower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down. His comments were nothing new and did little to move the needle on the markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $90.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.948% after briefly pushing above 5.0% on Thursday.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,325.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 4,366.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,250.00 and then at the October low of 4,235.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 15,138.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,796.00 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 109 15/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 110 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 107 22/32 and then at 107 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 106.15.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 105.10.5 and then at 105.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0641 and then at the October high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace late this week has most of the grain market bulls standing on the sidelines. Technicals are overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. However, the meal market is on fire, to suggest soybeans will also see some more upside price action in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, October 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Downbeat quarterly earnings from EV maker Tesla has dampened Wall Street spirits Thursday morning.

Rising bond yields and high tensions in the Middle East are also squelching the equities market bulls late this week. Reports said Hamas is firing more missiles into Israel. This comes after an explosion at a Gaza hospital killed over 500 people earlier this week. U.S. and Israeli intelligence say the explosion was caused by Palestinian militants.

The U.S. marketplace highlight of the day Thursday is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York in the afternoon.

In overnight news, the big China property developer Country Garden has missed a $15.4 million debt payment on a dollar bond. The Wall Street Journal said this caps “a remarkable fall from grace for a company that was once considered among the safest developers in the country.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $87.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is closing in on 5.0% and is presently fetching 4.96%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,320.75 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,150.00 and then at this week’s high of 15,336.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,937.00 and then at 14,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 110 12/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 111 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 108 8/32 and then at 108 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 106.15.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight contract low of 105.12.5 and then at 105.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0622 and then at the October high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $88.42 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $86.60 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. Less risk appetite in the marketplace at present continues to limit the upside for the grains in the near term, although soybean and soybean meal bulls have come to life. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, October 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion has up-ticked at mid-week after a bombing at a hospital in Gaza has reportedly killed over 500 people. Hamas blamed an Israel air strike, while Israel blamed an errant Hamas missile. Reads a Barrons headline today: “Rate fears, bond yields, war; market concern grows.”

Gold prices are sharply up and at a four-week high above $1,950 an ounce, on keener safe-haven demand after the Gaza hospital was bombed.

In overnight news, China got some mixed economic data today. China’s third-quarter GDP came in at up 4.9%, year-on-year, helped by resilient consumer spending. However, China’s third-quarter GDP came in below the second quarter’s reading of up 6.3%, year-on-year. That puts the world’s second-largest economy on course to hit an annual GDP target of around 5% for 2023, Bloomberg reported. GDP got a boost from strong retail sales in September that posted the biggest increase since May. On the downside, China property investment contraction accelerated during September. Home sales continued to decline and construction of new homes dropped almost 24% in the first nine months of the year. Funding for property development dropped 13.5%, year-on-year.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone September consumer price index rose 4.3%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $89.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.82%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, new residential construction and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the October high of 4,430.50 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,354.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,299.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,336.75 and then at the October high of 15,468.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 111 17/32 and then at this week’s high of 112 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 109 17/32 and then at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 107.00.0 and then at 107.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight contract low of 106.03.0 and then at 106.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0622 and then at the October high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are solidly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $87.64 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading on short covering. Less risk appetite in the marketplace at present will likely continue to limit the upside for the grains in the near term. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is past the half-way point and that has been a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff