Daily Morning Report

Monday, September 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The main event for the marketplace this week will be the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Most look for the FOMC to stand pat on U.S. monetary policy, but still sound a hawkish tone. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Strikes, dot plots, energy prices. How the Fed’s inflation battle is getting tougher.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher, hit a 10-month high overnight, and trading around $91.50 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.345%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,566.00 and then at the September high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at the September low of 4,483.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral to bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. Both are below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 15,352.00 and then at 15,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 119 9/32 and then at last week’s high of 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 117 24/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 109.28.5 and then at last week’s high of 110.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 109.03.0 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at last week’s high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0675 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit another 10-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $92.50 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $89.22 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is ramping up, and that will be a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crop to the local elevator. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn and wheat, and slightly bullish for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China again eased its monetary policy by cutting a short-term lending rate, one day after lowering the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Some slightly better economic data on Friday prompted this Wall Street Journal headline: “China data show signs of fragile economic recovery.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a six-month high on Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $90.50 a barrel. Prices hit a 10-month high overnight. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.33%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State Manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the September high of 4,597.50 and then at 4,625.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,495.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,483.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. Both are above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,719.95 and then at the September high of 15,855.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 15,531.00 and then at the September low of 15,352.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 119 9/32 and then at this week’s high of 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 8/32 and then at the contract low of 117 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.28.5 and then at this week’s high of 110.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 109.03.0 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a six-month low Thursday. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at this week’s high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0675 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit another 10-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $91.15 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $88.68 and then at this week’s low of $86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is ramping up, and that will be a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crop to the local elevator. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn and wheat, and slightly bullish for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s central bank is again easing its monetary policy, this time by cutting is reserve requirement ratio for banks by 0.25%, effective Friday. The central bank is trying to revive the world’s second-largest economy.

The European Central Bank is holding its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday and is expected to slightly raise its main interest rate by 0.25 percent.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $89.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.26%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, retail sales and the producer price index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,543.50 and then at the September high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,495.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,483.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. Both are above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,696.00 and then at 15,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 15,352.00 and then at 15,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. Both are above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 8/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 8/32 and then at the contract low of 117 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.05.5 and then at last week’s high of 110.17.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.19.0 and then at the contract low of 109.03.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0819 and then at last week’s high of 1.0863. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0747 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a 10-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.00 and then at this week’s low of $86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn and wheat, and slightly bullish for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are waiting the U.S. data point of the week today: the consumer price index report for August, due out this morning. The CPI is expected to be up 4.3%, year-on-year, versus a 4.7% rise in the July report. Look for more active trading in many markets in the immediate aftermath of the CPI report—especially if it’s a miss from market expectations.

The European Central Bank also holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday and is expected to slightly raise its main interest rate by 0.25 percent.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $89.50 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.306%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the MBA weekly mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,543.50 and then at the September high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,483.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,696.00 and then at 15,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 15,352.00 and then at 15,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 119 17/32 and then at last week’s high of 120 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 118 25/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 110.17.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.19.0 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0819 and then at last week’s high of 1.0863. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0747 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a 10-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $86.71 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn and wheat, and bullish for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Equities traders are not quite half-way through what can be the tumultuous month of September, and the bulls are holding their own–so far. Six more weeks to go before the bulls can breathe easier, however, as October can also be a rocky month for the stock markets.

Traders and investors are waiting for the U.S. consumer price index report for August, due out Wednesday morning. The CPI is expected to be up 4.3%, year-on-year, versus a 4.7% rise in the July report.

The European Central Bank also holds its regular monetary policy meeting this week and is expected to slightly raise its main interest rate by 0.25 percent.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $88.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.284%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index and the weekly Johnson-Redbook retail sales report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,543.50 and then at the September high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,483.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,696.00 and then at 15,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,492.75 and then at last week’s low of 15,352.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 119 17/32 and then at last week’s high of 120 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 118 25/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 110.17.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.19.0 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0819 and then at last week’s high of 1.0863. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0747 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a 10-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $86.71 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. On tap today is the USDA monthly supply and demand report, which will provide fresh production estimates. Trading could be volatile in the immediate aftermath of the noon EDT report. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat, and bullish for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, September 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are waiting for the next major U.S. data point, which will likely be the consumer price index report for August, out Wednesday. The CPI is expected to be up 4.3%, year-on-year, versus a 4.7% rise in the July report. The European Central Bank also holds its regular monetary policy meeting this week and is expected to slightly raise its main interest rate by 0.25%.

In overnight news, a Wall Street Journal headline reads, “An important shift in Fed officials’ stance is under way.” In the article, reporter Nick Timiraos, who is said to have close ties with the Fed, writes that Fed officials, including Chairman Jay Powell, now have a more balanced approach on monetary policy. That’s a dovish shift from the more hawkish approach the Fed had in recent months, which was one of erring on the side of raising interest rates too high, to make certain inflation is choked off. Now, the Fed is more worried about further interest rate increases causing an unnecessary U.S. recession.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $87.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.294%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,553.25 and then at the September high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,483.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,700.00 and then at 15,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,492.75 and then at last week’s low of 15,352.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 119 17/32 and then at last week’s high of 120 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 118 25/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 110.17.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 109.19.0 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower and bears are in solid control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0801 and then at last week’s high of 1.0863. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0747 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the September high of $88.08 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Traders await Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, which will provide fresh production estimates. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat, and bullish for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff