Daily Morning Report

Monday, June 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Geopolitics is back on the front burner of the marketplace following the weekend insurrection in Russia that has at least temporarily been averted. Still, risk aversion is a bit elevated to start the trading week. Traders and investors are wondering what comes next in Russia. It appears Russian President Putin is seeing his once-powerful grip on his country loosening significantly, which is destabilizing the Russian military. The marketplace will continue watching this situation very closely as its implications are huge.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $69.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.688%. 

U.S. economic due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,426.25 and then at last week’s high of 4,462.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 15,236.00 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,964.00 and then at 14,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at the June high of 129 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 30/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 113.17.0 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.03.5 and then at last week’s low of 112.21.0.  Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the June high of 1.1061. Shorter-term support is seen at the last week’s low of 1.0891 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $70.11 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.71 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are not quite as bullish, calling for some rains in the coming week. However, the Russian insurrection has prompted keener global supply concerns for the grains. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Central bankers this week, save for China, reinforced their hawkish tones on monetary policies. That’s bearish for many markets, including stocks and commodities.

In overnight news, the Euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for June came in at 43.6, which was lower than expectations. The June services PMI reading was 52.4, also below expectations. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector, and above 50.0 suggests growth.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $68.75 a barrel. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: “Oil falls as global interest rates rise.” Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.746%. 

U.S. economic due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash and services purchasing managers indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,426.25 and then at this week’s high of 4,462.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,375.00 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,322.50 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,964.00 and then at 14,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 11/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 even and then at this week’s low of 126 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.17.0 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.21.0 and then at the June low of 112.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1061. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0891 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $69.65 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.06 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower again overnight on downside corrections from early-week strong gains. Extended weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are not quite as bullish, calling for still mostly dry conditions but with some decent rains this weekend in some spots of the Corn Belt. A failing Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal is bullish, especially for wheat. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Focus late this week is on central banks. Norway’s central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.5% Thursday. The Bank of England met today on its monetary policy and raise its main interest rate by 0.5%, which surprised many, who expected a 0.25% hike. Meantime, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give testimony to a U.S. Senate committee today, following his remarks to a House committee on Wednesday. Powell on Wednesday leaned hawkish but generally repeated comments from his post-FOMC meeting press conference in mid-June. He reiterated the Fed is not happy with inflation levels that are presently well above the central bank’s 2% annual target area. Powell also said two more interest rate increases this year are probable but did not specify the timing.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.758%. 

U.S. economic due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales, leading economic indicators, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,462.00 and then at the June high of 4,485.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,375.00 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,322.50 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,850.00 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 11/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at this week’s low of 126 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.17.0 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.23.0 and then at the June low of 112.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0943. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $72.72 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.76 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight on corrective pullbacks from this week’s strong gains. Extended weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are still bullish, calling for mostly dry conditions. A failing Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal is also bullish, especially for wheat. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all have the firm near-term technical advantage in this weather market. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes are not far below last week’s 10-month highs and are in near-term price uptrends.

The marketplace is eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. The marketplace will be closely watching the testimony for any fresh clues on the timing of any future U.S. interest rate increases, or how long the Fed might pause on raising rates.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.738%. 

U.S. economic due for release Wednesday includes the MBA mortgage applications survey, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s 10-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,462.00 and then at the June high of 4,485.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s 10-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,322.50 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,126.50 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 11/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at this week’s low of 126 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.17.0 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.23.0 and then at the June low of 112.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the June high of 1.0997 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0943 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $72.38 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.76 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were sharply higher overnight. Extended weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are bullish, calling for mostly dry conditions. A failing Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal is also bullish. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff