Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, June 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion has eased at mid-week following the weekend insurrection in Russia that was quickly quelled. Quieter summertime trading ahead of the major U.S. Independence Day holiday next Tuesday seems to the feature at present.

In overnight news, Australia reported tamer inflation numbers as its May consumer price index was up 5.6%, year-on-year, compared to the April figure of up 6.8%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $68.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.747%. 

U.S. economic due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, advance economic indicators and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,462.00 and then at the June high of 4,493.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,368.50 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,152.50 and then at 15,236.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,853.50 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 26/32 and then at the June high of 129 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 12/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.16.5 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.24.5 and then at last week’s low of 112.21.0.  Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the June high of 1.1061 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0933 and then at last week’s low of 1.0891. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $70.15 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the June low of $66.96 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower overnight. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are still not that wet, but it appears the grain markets have digested and factored into their prices the present dry weather pattern in the Corn Belt. Now the bulls need the dryness pattern to ratchet up a notch, to include more heat, in order to revive grain prices. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all still have slight the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, June 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed and European stocks mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. While risk aversion is not keen Tuesday, neither is it robust following the weekend insurrection in Russia and the likely weakened posture of its president, Vladimir Putin. Many veteran Russia watchers now believe Russia is even less stable than before the weekend revolt. With Putin now weaker it makes him even more dangerous.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $68.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.735%. 

U.S. economic due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, durable goods orders, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic home price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 4,426.25 and then at last week’s high of 4,462.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 15,152.50 and then at 15,236.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,750.00 and then at 14,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 26/32 and then at the June high of 129 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 22/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 113.16.5 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 112.21.0.  Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the June high of 1.1061 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0933 and then at last week’s low of 1.0891. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $70.15 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.18 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. While weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are still not that wet, it appears the grain markets have now digested and factored into their prices the present dry weather pattern in the Corn Belt, and now the bulls need the dryness pattern to ratchet up a notch, to include more heat, in order to further goose grain prices. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, June 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Geopolitics is back on the front burner of the marketplace following the weekend insurrection in Russia that has at least temporarily been averted. Still, risk aversion is a bit elevated to start the trading week. Traders and investors are wondering what comes next in Russia. It appears Russian President Putin is seeing his once-powerful grip on his country loosening significantly, which is destabilizing the Russian military. The marketplace will continue watching this situation very closely as its implications are huge.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $69.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.688%. 

U.S. economic due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,426.25 and then at last week’s high of 4,462.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 15,236.00 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,964.00 and then at 14,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at the June high of 129 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 30/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 113.17.0 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.03.5 and then at last week’s low of 112.21.0.  Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the June high of 1.1061. Shorter-term support is seen at the last week’s low of 1.0891 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $70.11 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.71 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are not quite as bullish, calling for some rains in the coming week. However, the Russian insurrection has prompted keener global supply concerns for the grains. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Central bankers this week, save for China, reinforced their hawkish tones on monetary policies. That’s bearish for many markets, including stocks and commodities.

In overnight news, the Euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for June came in at 43.6, which was lower than expectations. The June services PMI reading was 52.4, also below expectations. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector, and above 50.0 suggests growth.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $68.75 a barrel. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: “Oil falls as global interest rates rise.” Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.746%. 

U.S. economic due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash and services purchasing managers indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,426.25 and then at this week’s high of 4,462.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,375.00 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,322.50 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,964.00 and then at 14,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 11/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 even and then at this week’s low of 126 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.17.0 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.21.0 and then at the June low of 112.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1061. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0891 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $69.65 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.06 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower again overnight on downside corrections from early-week strong gains. Extended weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are not quite as bullish, calling for still mostly dry conditions but with some decent rains this weekend in some spots of the Corn Belt. A failing Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal is bullish, especially for wheat. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff