Jim Wyckoff

Dominate Your Market

Daily Morning Report

Global stock market bulls gaining confidence

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Thursday, March 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock market bulls around the globe are regaining confidence. The marketplace is slowly moving beyond the U.S. and European banking troubles. However, it’s too soon for the “all clear” siren regarding the matter. And now attention is turning to the health of major insurance companies. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Threat of a slow-boil bank crisis endures.”

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $73.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.568%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of four-quarter gross domestic product, and corporate profits.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 4,119.50 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,025.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,980.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,742.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,634.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 6/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 114.28.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.07.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0873 and then at this week’s low of 1.0797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $72.19 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls have gained the slight chart edge. Corn bulls also have the slight edge and are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend. One of the biggest USDA reports of the year is out on Friday: The prospective plantings report. The USDA quarterly grain stocks report is also out Friday. Look for volatile trading after the USDA reports that are out just before midday Friday.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Soybean bulls recover; more work to do

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The soybean futures market last week dropped to a six-month low but has since made a strong recovery to produce a bullish V-bottom reversal pattern that suggests a market bottom is in place. However, the bean bulls still have some more work to do in the near term as a price downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. See the support and resistance lines on the chart. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Less risk aversion at mid-week

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Wednesday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is slowly moving beyond the U.S. and European banking troubles as risk appetite creeps back into the markets. However, veteran market watchers believe it’s too soon for the “all clear” siren regarding the matter.

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.549%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, pending homes sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,980.75 and then at 3,937.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,984.50 and then at the March high of 13,082.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,634.75 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 8/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5 and then at 115.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.14.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0797 and then at 1.0768. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $72.19 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls and bears are back on a level playing field. Corn bulls have the slight edge and are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Banking turmoil stabilizes, crude oil rises

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Tuesday, March 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. and European banking crisis appears to have stabilized, at least for now. That’s allowing risk appetite to creep back into the marketplace.

It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, but the highlight is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $73.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.558%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, advance economic indicators, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic home price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index and industrial production and capacity utilization.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,937.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 12,984.50 and then at the March high of 13,082.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,678.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 even and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 8/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.07.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.18.0 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0797 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls are working on a price uptrend.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. stock index bulls gain some momentum

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The e-mini S&P stock index futures bulls have gained some upside technical momentum the past two weeks, as a price downtrend has stalled out and a fledgling price uptrend is now in place. See the support and resistance lines on the chart. The direction in which prices push above the resistance line or below the support line will very likely be the direction of the next major trending move in the e-mini S&P futures. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace calmer Monday

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Monday, March 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit keener to start the trading week. The U.S. and European banking systems appear to have stabilized, at least for the moment. First Citizens Bancshares has agreed to buy pieces of Silicon Valley Bank. Meantime, Deutsche Bank shares are firmer today amid easing fears for that bank’s health.

Geopolitics is moving closer to the front burner of the marketplace as Russia over the weekend threatened to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. North Korea has test-fired more ballistic missiles and the U.S. has retaliated with air strikes in Syria after an Iranian-backed drone attack killed a U.S. citizen and injured U.S. military personnel.

It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, including Friday’s much-anticipated personal consumption and expenditures data that will provide fresh clues on whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $69.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.458%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 3,937.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,678.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 19/32 and then at Friday’s high of 133 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a contract high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at today’s high of 116.06.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 115.11.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0891 and then at the March high of 1.0983. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0768 and then at last week’s low of 1.0690. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $71.67 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Any renewed elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace this week will limit speculative buying interest in grains. Soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures have broken down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff