Daily Morning Report

Monday, April 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The weekend surprise OPEC-plus cut in its collective crude oil production by just over 1 million barrels a day is on the front burner of the marketplace to start the trading week. Oil prices spiked on the news, with Nymex crude oil prices presently up nearly $3.94 a barrel at $79.60.

“It’s a shock move by OPEC-plus as the cartel had previously vowed to maintain a steady supply. This is a significant reduction in a market in which supply was expected to be tight for the second half of 2023,” said Nigel Green of the deVere Group. “The production cuts could see prices close to $100 a barrel due to demand from a reopening China and as Russia has slashed production due to sanctions from the West. The dramatic cut will only add to pressing global inflationary squeezes.”

The OPEC oil-production-cut also raises the specter of higher inflation in the coming months that could force central banks to keep their interest rates higher for longer.

The other key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.513%.

It’s a busier day for U.S. economic data released Monday, including the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global PMI, construction spending and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week high Friday and closed at a technically bullish weekly and monthly high close. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 4,142.50 and then at 4,175.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at Friday’s low of 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting an eight-month high Friday. Prices Friday also closed at a technically bullish weekly and monthly high close. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 13,311.50 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 13,057.50 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 131 17/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 130 12/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 115.03.5 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.18.0 and then at last week’s low of 114.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0835 and then at last week’s low of 1.0797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $81.69 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. The big jump in crude oil prices is benefitting the grain market bulls. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace recently is also bullish for grains. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart edge. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge amid a price uptrend in place.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors this week gained some better risk appetite as there were no new, negative developments on the U.S. and European banking fronts. However, reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Wild quarter for markets might foretell further turbulence.”

Today is the last trading day of the month and of the first quarter, which makes it an extra important trading day from a technical perspective. Gold bulls had their best trading month since July of 2020.

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday morning’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy may be headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

In overnight news, inflation in the Euro zone for March rose 6.9%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 8.5% in February. The March reading was slightly below market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $74.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.564%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Chicago ISM business survey and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 4,119.50 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,052.50 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting an eight-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,138.75 and then at 13,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 12,931.50 and then at 12,742.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 6/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 114.28.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.07.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0873 and then at this week’s low of 1.0797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $72.61 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. One of the biggest USDA reports of the year is out on Friday: The prospective plantings report. The USDA quarterly grain stocks report is also out Friday. Look for volatile trading after the USDA reports that are out just before midday Friday. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls have the slight chart edge. Corn bulls also have the technical edge and are working on a price uptrend. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock market bulls around the globe are regaining confidence. The marketplace is slowly moving beyond the U.S. and European banking troubles. However, it’s too soon for the “all clear” siren regarding the matter. And now attention is turning to the health of major insurance companies. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Threat of a slow-boil bank crisis endures.”

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $73.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.568%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of four-quarter gross domestic product, and corporate profits.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 4,119.50 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,025.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,980.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,742.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,634.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 6/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 114.28.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.07.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0873 and then at this week’s low of 1.0797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $72.19 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls have gained the slight chart edge. Corn bulls also have the slight edge and are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend. One of the biggest USDA reports of the year is out on Friday: The prospective plantings report. The USDA quarterly grain stocks report is also out Friday. Look for volatile trading after the USDA reports that are out just before midday Friday.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is slowly moving beyond the U.S. and European banking troubles as risk appetite creeps back into the markets. However, veteran market watchers believe it’s too soon for the “all clear” siren regarding the matter.

The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.549%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, pending homes sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,980.75 and then at 3,937.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,984.50 and then at the March high of 13,082.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,634.75 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 8/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5 and then at 115.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.14.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0797 and then at 1.0768. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $72.19 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls and bears are back on a level playing field. Corn bulls have the slight edge and are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff