Daily Morning Report

Friday, March 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is again elevated to end the trading week, as focus is now on credit default swaps with Deutsch Bank that are suggesting stress for that bank. The recent series of banking problems in the U.S. and Europe are playing out as some veteran financial market watchers expected: sort of a rolling crisis that shows no signs of letting up. The Federal Reserve reported Thursday afternoon that U.S. banks drew on $165 billion from the Federal Reserve lending facility in the week ending March 22, highlighting lenders’ concerns over available interbank liquidity, Bloomberg reported.

In overnight news, reports said the U.S. military retaliated with air strikes on Iranian-backed militants in Syria after an Iranian drone strike in that region killed a U.S. worker and injured U.S. military personnel.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher on safe-haven demand. Nymex crude oil futures prices are sharply lower and are trading around $67.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.3%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes durable goods orders and the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,998.35 and then at Thursday’s high of 4,039.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,897.25 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 6.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,678.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 133 29/32 and then at the January high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 132 even and then at the overnight low of 131 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at today’s contract high of 117.01.5 and then at 117.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 116.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 115.21.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0891 and then at this week’s high of 1.0983. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0690 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.90 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Friday sees elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace that will limit speculative buying interest in grains heading into the weekend. Soybean market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures have broken down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. The path of least resistance for grain futures markets prices at present is sideways to lower.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. While the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting produced a mostly expected quarter-point rate hike, Fed Chair Powell at his press conference leaned a bit more dovish than he had been in recent months. That briefly rallied the U.S. stock indexes. However, what rattled the U.S. stock market late in the session Wednesday was comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at a Senate hearing that the federal government has no plans to protect all bank deposits that are not FDIC-insured.

In overnight news, the Swiss National Bank raised its main interest rate by 50 basis points. The central bank also said the Swiss banking crisis is over. The Bank of England is holding its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up following sharp losses Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and are trading around $70.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.472%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, new residential sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a 6.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,678.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 28/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at this week’s low of 129 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 115.19.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at 114.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower after hitting a seven-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0814 and then at 1.0761. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.31 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the Wednesday’s low of $68.89 and then at $66.90. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace has been and likely will continue limiting speculative buying interest in grains. Soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures are breaking down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. The path of least resistance for grain futures markets prices at present is sideways to lower.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Focus at mid-week is on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that began Tuesday morning and concludes Wednesday afternoon. There is still last-minute debate regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking problems. Most market watchers are leaning toward a 0.25% Fed funds rate increase. The Bank of England holds is regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

The U.S. and European bank turmoil is still a dark cloud hanging over the marketplace and curtailing risk appetite. Said market analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: “It very much feels like we’re just taking one day at a time…. Every day that passes without drama is one closer to the point at which we can put the mini-banking crisis behind us. But it’s still early days and investors are all too aware of that, which is why we’re seeing a tentative recovery at this point.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower and are trading around $69.50 a barrel, after hitting a 15-month low Monday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.604%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,043.25 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,981.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,898.25 and then at the January high of 13,068.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 12,676.50 and then at this week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 12/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 16/32 and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.14.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.00.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.0761 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the Tuesday’s low of $66.90 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Continued elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace has been and likely will continue limiting speculative buying interest in grains. The recent big drop in crude oil prices to a 15-month low is an ominous, bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector, including the grains. Soybean market bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures are now breaking down, finally. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. The path of least resistance for grain futures markets prices at present is sideways to lower.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit better so far Tuesday as the U.S. and European banking turmoil continues to play out. Reports say JP Morgan bank chief Jamie Dimon is helping the troubled First Republic Bank through its crisis of investor/depositor confidence.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday afternoon. There is still some debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points or stand pat amid the U.S. and European banking crisis. Most market watchers are leaning toward a 0.25% Fed funds rate increase. The 0.5% rate hike by the European Central Bank last week makes a 0.25% increase by the FOMC more likely.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and are trading around $68.50 a barrel, after hitting a 15-month low Monday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.541%–up from levels seen Monday, which is an indication of less anxiety in the marketplace Tuesday. Gold prices are also weaker Tuesday, amid less safe-haven demand so far today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales reports, and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,050.00 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the last week’s high of 12,811.25 and then at 12,924.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,525.25 and then at 12,314.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 28/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 10/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 115.14.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.00.0 and then at 113.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0690 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher on short covering after hitting a 15-month low on Monday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.77 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Bulls are working to stabilize the grain markets. However, keener risk aversion in the general marketplace has been and likely will continue limiting speculative buying interest in grains. The recent big drop in crude oil prices to a 15-month low is an ominous, bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector, including the grains. Soybean market bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures are now breaking down, finally. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff