Daily Morning Report

Monday, March 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit keener to start the trading week. The U.S. and European banking systems appear to have stabilized, at least for the moment. First Citizens Bancshares has agreed to buy pieces of Silicon Valley Bank. Meantime, Deutsche Bank shares are firmer today amid easing fears for that bank’s health.

Geopolitics is moving closer to the front burner of the marketplace as Russia over the weekend threatened to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. North Korea has test-fired more ballistic missiles and the U.S. has retaliated with air strikes in Syria after an Iranian-backed drone attack killed a U.S. citizen and injured U.S. military personnel.

It’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, including Friday’s much-anticipated personal consumption and expenditures data that will provide fresh clues on whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $69.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.458%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 3,937.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,678.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 19/32 and then at Friday’s high of 133 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a contract high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at today’s high of 116.06.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 115.11.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0891 and then at the March high of 1.0983. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0768 and then at last week’s low of 1.0690. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $71.67 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Any renewed elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace this week will limit speculative buying interest in grains. Soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures have broken down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is again elevated to end the trading week, as focus is now on credit default swaps with Deutsch Bank that are suggesting stress for that bank. The recent series of banking problems in the U.S. and Europe are playing out as some veteran financial market watchers expected: sort of a rolling crisis that shows no signs of letting up. The Federal Reserve reported Thursday afternoon that U.S. banks drew on $165 billion from the Federal Reserve lending facility in the week ending March 22, highlighting lenders’ concerns over available interbank liquidity, Bloomberg reported.

In overnight news, reports said the U.S. military retaliated with air strikes on Iranian-backed militants in Syria after an Iranian drone strike in that region killed a U.S. worker and injured U.S. military personnel.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher on safe-haven demand. Nymex crude oil futures prices are sharply lower and are trading around $67.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.3%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes durable goods orders and the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,998.35 and then at Thursday’s high of 4,039.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,897.25 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 6.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,678.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 133 29/32 and then at the January high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 132 even and then at the overnight low of 131 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at today’s contract high of 117.01.5 and then at 117.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 116.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 115.21.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0891 and then at this week’s high of 1.0983. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0690 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.90 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Friday sees elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace that will limit speculative buying interest in grains heading into the weekend. Soybean market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures have broken down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. The path of least resistance for grain futures markets prices at present is sideways to lower.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. While the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting produced a mostly expected quarter-point rate hike, Fed Chair Powell at his press conference leaned a bit more dovish than he had been in recent months. That briefly rallied the U.S. stock indexes. However, what rattled the U.S. stock market late in the session Wednesday was comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at a Senate hearing that the federal government has no plans to protect all bank deposits that are not FDIC-insured.

In overnight news, the Swiss National Bank raised its main interest rate by 50 basis points. The central bank also said the Swiss banking crisis is over. The Bank of England is holding its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up following sharp losses Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and are trading around $70.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.472%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, new residential sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a 6.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,678.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 28/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at this week’s low of 129 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 115.19.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at 114.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower after hitting a seven-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0814 and then at 1.0761. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.31 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the Wednesday’s low of $68.89 and then at $66.90. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace has been and likely will continue limiting speculative buying interest in grains. Soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures are breaking down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. The path of least resistance for grain futures markets prices at present is sideways to lower.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff