Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, March 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor anxiety is still elevated Tuesday, following late last week’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the sixteenth largest bank in the U.S. The reverberations of the bank failure are still present in the marketplace and will likely continue to be for at least the next few days.

Focus today is on the U.S. consumer price index report for February, which is forecast coming in at up 6.0%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 6.5% in the January CPI report.

Goldman Sachs and many other analysts are forecasting the Federal Reserve now will not raise U.S. interest rates at its FOMC meeting next week. The fear in the marketplace is a contagion effect and crisis of confidence among the public. So far today, there does not appear to be extreme anxiety or panic in the marketplace, following the U.S. government’s pledge to cover the funds for all of SVB’s depositors—but not its investors in its stock.

The U.S. Treasury market has stabilized. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.605%. Another surge in U.S. T-Bond and T-Note prices (falling yields) would suggest a surge in marketplace worry and anxiety. The U.S. 2-year Treasury note on Monday surged to the largest daily price gain (yield decline) since the stock market meltdown in 1987.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer after a steep two-session downdraft. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly lower and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Crude has been hit this week by worries about declining global demand amid the financial turmoil and its lingering implications.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes and the NFIB small business index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 3,971.50 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,839.25 and then at the December low of 3,822.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 12,222.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,806.25 and then at 11,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a five-week high Monday, on safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neural to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 132 4/32 and then at Monday’s high of 132 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a five-week high Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at Monday’s high of 115.13.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.22.0 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0816 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0713 and then at last Friday’s low of 1.0640. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $74.90 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $72.30 and then at the December low of $70.86. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace this week is likely to continue to limit buying interest in grains. Soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor anxiety is elevated to start the trading week, following a turbulent weekend in the wake of late last week’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the sixteenth largest bank in the U.S. The federal government said it would back all depositors in the failed bank. Other smaller U.S. banks are reported to be in stress due to depositor withdrawals. Government regulators have also taken over Signature Bank, which serves many crypto currency companies.

To show how much this event has shaken the general marketplace, Goldman Sachs is now predicting the Federal Reserve will not raise U.S. interest rates at its FOMC meeting next week. Said one market analyst in a Wall Street Journal story today: “When the Fed raises rates so quickly, nine times out of 10, it breaks things. We may see more corporate failures; we may see more regional banks go under.” Read a headline on Dow Jones Newswires: “Bank mayhem is now on the Fed’s radar.”

Gold prices have extended late last week’s sharp gains and have hit a four-week high near $1,900 an ounce today. Safe-haven demand is featured in the metal. U.S. Treasury prices are also solidly up (yields down) on flight-to-quality buying. Meantime, Bitcoin prices are sharply up.

Of course, the fear in the marketplace is a contagion effect and crisis of confidence among the investing public and the general public. The next two days will be critical in gauging the stress of the investing and general public.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower after hitting a three-month high last week. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $75.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.549%, after recently poking above the 4.0% level.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down and near a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,950.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the last week’s low of 3,881.00 and then at the December low of 3,822.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,222.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,925.75 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher and hit a five-week high on safe-haven demand in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 30/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 128 7/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.29.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.16.0 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0799 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at Friday’s low of 1.0640. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace this week is likely to limit buying interest in grains. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

All week long the marketplace reckoned the U.S. jobs report Friday morning would be the main focal point of the week. However, a major U.S. financial institution is in big trouble and the marketplace is anxious. SVB Financial, the holding company for Silicon Valley Bank and the 16th largest U.S. commercial bank, dropped 60% in stock value after an emergency $2.25 billion capital increase to cover $1.8 billion in losses on its $21 billion bond portfolio. The bank is also a big player in crypto currencies, which has cryptos under pressure late this week. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Bitcoin plunges below $20,000 with little reason to buy; it could get worse fast.”

Said broker SP Angel in an email dispatch: “Markets look vulnerable to further shocks as the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in California lends weight to a risk-off strategy. To quote Warren Buffett: ‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.’ Every institution holding treasuries is now sitting on paper losses and will be forced to crystalize real losses if required to sell. Shares in JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. lenders by assets, all fell by between 4.1% and 6.2%.”

Added Criag Erlam of OANDA: “Ultimately, what we’re seeing today is a very defensive response to a series of events that have left investors with many more questions than answers, and fearing further ripple effects in the financial sector. It’s understandable but yet unclear how long that will last and whether it will worsen.”

Traders are still awaiting the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report. Look for higher volatility in many markets is the non-farm jobs print misses expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.847%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,920.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,300.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,056.25 and then at the March low of 11,964.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high on safe-haven demand in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 25/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 3/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.13.0 and then at 112.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.20.5 and then at 111.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at this week’s high of 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0590 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage with this week’s selling pressure. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace late this week is likely to limit buying interest in grains today. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The general marketplace is quieter Thursday, ahead of the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report. Look for higher volatility in many markets is the non-farm jobs print misses expectations.

In overnight news, China’s inflation eased as its February consumer price index rose just 1.0%, year-on-year, compared to a consensus forecast of up 1.7%. Those numbers are way below recent inflation numbers reported by the European Union, the U.S. and other major industrialized countries.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.987%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the Challenger job-cuts report. President Biden also releases his fiscal year 2024 budget today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,050.00 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,960.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,623.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,247.75 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 126 even and then at this week’s high of 126 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 16/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.17.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.20.5 and then at 110.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at this week’s high of 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0590 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.11 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff