Daily Morning Report

Friday, November 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes in the U.S. late this week are slightly upbeat after a better-than-expected U.S. retail sales report for October that was released Wednesday. However, enthusiasm was blunted Thursday by hawkish rhetoric coming from U.S. Federal Reserve officials, who ostensibly said the U.S. economy needs to dip into recession for a while in order to fully tamp down problematic inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower, hit a five-week low overnight, and are trading around $81.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.799%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,912.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the 12,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,528.25 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 126 27/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.25.5 and then at this week’s high of 113.11.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 111.27.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.0429 and then at this week’s high of 1.0508. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0297 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to watch the key outside markets closely: the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes. Those markets are in an overall neutral posture for the grains Friday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Still, trader and investor attitudes in the U.S. are mostly upbeat after a much-better-than-expected U.S. retail sales report for October that was released Wednesday morning. Read a Barron’s headline this morning: “The Fed may actually engineer a soft landing….”

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its October consumer price index at up 10.6%, year-on-year, which was just slightly below expectations for a rise of 10.7%.

The London Metals Exchange has increased scrutiny of nickel trading as volatility has spiked. Broker SP Angel said Thursday morning in an email dispatch that nickel prices slid 12% Wednesday following a week of whipsawing volatility. “The LME nickel contract has seen its highest levels of volatility since the infamous nickel short squeeze in March.” The LME has hiked the nickel margin 28% to $6,100 per MT in a bid to limit intraday swings. Liquidity has increased dramatically on the Shanghai exchange following the March saga, with volatility on that contract far lower. “Traders have been put off by the LME’s decision to suspend trading during the fiasco, hitting buyers who were long at a time when prices hit $100,000 per MT.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $84.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.736%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction and the Kansas City Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,827.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading but did hit a six-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 27/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.11.0 and then at 113.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.16.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0429 and then at this week’s high of 1.0508. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0297 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $85.45 and then at Wednesday’s high of $87.51. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then at $81.30. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading. Reports say the Ukraine-Russia grain-shipping agreement has been extended. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for mixed openings when the New York day session begins. After a tense Tuesday afternoon in the markets following reports that a Russian missile landed in NATO-member Poland and killed two people, the marketplace has mostly settled down after the U.S. said the missile was not likely fired by Russia but instead was likely fired by Ukraine in an attempt to shoot down a barrage of incoming Russian missiles.

Traders and investors remain cheered by Tuesday’s U.S. producer price index report that came in cooler than expected and drove the major U.S. stock indexes to new for-the-move highs. Loosening of Covid restrictions in China and moves by the Chinese central bank to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy are also keeping an upbeat tone in the marketplace at mid-week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $87.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.79%.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, Treasury international capital data and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below the two-month high recorded Tuesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,050.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,960.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but close to Tuesday’s seven-week high. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,702.00 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 126 even and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 122 28/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.31.5 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.10.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0508 and then at 1.0550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0356 and then at this week’s low of 1.0297. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $88.68 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at this week’s low of $84.06. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading. Grains got a boost in late trading Tuesday on the news a Russian missile hit Poland. However, the missile was likely fired by Ukraine and the grains have pulled back early today. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were steady to mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the day is the producer price index report for October, which is seen coming in at up 0.4% from September and compares to the rise of 0.4% in the September PPI report.

Trader and investor risk attitudes are more upbeat Tuesday, on notions the Federal Reserve will at its December meeting start to back off on its aggressive tightening of U.S. monetary policy. Monday’s face-to-face meeting between U.S. President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping also has boosted hopes the world’s two largest economies can become less adversarial. Also positive for the marketplace are recent moves by China to ease up on its Covid restrictions.

In overnight news, the Euro zone third-quarter GDP came in at up 2.1%, year on year, which was slightly above market expectations.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower and hovering near last week’s nearly three-month low. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 3.799%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes and the Empire State manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far from the two-month high recorded on Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,017.50 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,951.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and close to Monday’s six-week high. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,702.00 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 122 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.21.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0463 and then at 1.0500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0337 and then at this week’s low of 1.0297. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.06 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker in overnight trading. Not much new so far today. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bears have momentum. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge but have faded. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff