Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, November 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite remains muted early this week as Covid cases surge in China. News reports are calling China’s largest city, Beijing, a “ghost town.” Some analysts are saying 20% of China’s economy is being negatively impacted by the Covid lockdowns.

Wednesday will be the busiest day for U.S. economic data, including the minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting, to be released in the early afternoon. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Don’t tune out for the holidays; the Fed minutes will be a must watch.” The minutes may contain fresh clues on the future path and timing of Fed monetary policy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The crude oil market was roiled Monday by reports Saudi Arabia is contemplating raising its crude oil production—only to have Saudi officials deny the report. Oil prices fell to an 11-month low shortly after the news reports hit the wires. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.793%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at the November high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,912.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 11,756.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the Monday’s high of 126 7/32 and then at the November high of 126 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.00.0 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 112.11.5 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0417 and then at 1.0500. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0316 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as a fledgling price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.00 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Bulls are being squelched due to demand worries amid the China Covid lockdowns. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to closely monitor the key outside markets: the U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener to start a U.S. holiday-shortened trading week. U.S. markets are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. China has recorded its first Covid deaths in six months as the world’s second-largest economy continues to struggle with rising Covid cases and lockdowns. Reports said infections in Beijing have more than doubled the past few days. This news has stock and commodity markets under pressure due to global demand worries.

Wednesday will be the busiest day for U.S. economic data, including the minutes from the last FOMC monetary policy meeting, to be released in the early afternoon.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.833%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at the November high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,912.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,756.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,528.25 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 126 27/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.17.5 and then at Friday’s high of 112.25.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 111.27.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0354 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0246 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.00 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading, on demand worries amid China Covid lockdowns. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and weekly USDA crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes in the U.S. late this week are slightly upbeat after a better-than-expected U.S. retail sales report for October that was released Wednesday. However, enthusiasm was blunted Thursday by hawkish rhetoric coming from U.S. Federal Reserve officials, who ostensibly said the U.S. economy needs to dip into recession for a while in order to fully tamp down problematic inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower, hit a five-week low overnight, and are trading around $81.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.799%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,912.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the 12,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,528.25 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 126 27/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.25.5 and then at this week’s high of 113.11.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 111.27.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.0429 and then at this week’s high of 1.0508. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0297 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to watch the key outside markets closely: the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes. Those markets are in an overall neutral posture for the grains Friday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Still, trader and investor attitudes in the U.S. are mostly upbeat after a much-better-than-expected U.S. retail sales report for October that was released Wednesday morning. Read a Barron’s headline this morning: “The Fed may actually engineer a soft landing….”

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its October consumer price index at up 10.6%, year-on-year, which was just slightly below expectations for a rise of 10.7%.

The London Metals Exchange has increased scrutiny of nickel trading as volatility has spiked. Broker SP Angel said Thursday morning in an email dispatch that nickel prices slid 12% Wednesday following a week of whipsawing volatility. “The LME nickel contract has seen its highest levels of volatility since the infamous nickel short squeeze in March.” The LME has hiked the nickel margin 28% to $6,100 per MT in a bid to limit intraday swings. Liquidity has increased dramatically on the Shanghai exchange following the March saga, with volatility on that contract far lower. “Traders have been put off by the LME’s decision to suspend trading during the fiasco, hitting buyers who were long at a time when prices hit $100,000 per MT.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $84.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.736%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction and the Kansas City Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,827.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading but did hit a six-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 27/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.11.0 and then at 113.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.16.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0429 and then at this week’s high of 1.0508. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0297 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $85.45 and then at Wednesday’s high of $87.51. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then at $81.30. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading. Reports say the Ukraine-Russia grain-shipping agreement has been extended. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff