Wednesday, April 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stocks markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war is still on the front burner of the marketplace as more economic sanctions are levied against Russia for its war atrocities against Ukrainian citizens. That is keeping energy prices elevated as European countries consider banning Russian energy imports.
The other matter on the front burner is rising inflation. Usually dovish Fed governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday said the Russia-Ukraine war has further stoked inflation and that inflation must be tamped down aggressively. She also suggested the Fed will begin selling off its big balance sheet of bonds (quantitative tightening). U.S. Treasury yields spiked up on her remarks. Traders are hoping to get better clarity of the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet intentions by scrutinizing Wednesday afternoon’s minutes from the last FOMC meeting three weeks ago. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note presently yields 2.646%. The 2-year/10-year Treasury note spread quickly snapped out of its inversion after Brainard’s hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy.
Speaking of inflation, the Euro zone reported its producer price index for February up a shocking 31.4%, year-on-year. Excluding food and energy, the PPI was up “only” 12.2% from last February.
Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $103.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the global services PMI, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the FOMC minutes.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,528.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,588.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,861.25 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 146 even and then at the overnight high of 146 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 144 24/32 and then at 144 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.30.5 and then at 121.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 120.05.5 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.1017 and then at this week’s high of 1.1083. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at the March low of 1.0845. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $104.02 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some keener risk aversion at mid-week. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Focus of grain traders will continue on the key outside markets (crude oil, U.S. dollar index and U.S. stock indexes), but is also shifting to U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. It looks to be a wetter early season for corn planting and that’s bullish for corn.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff