Daily Morning Report

Monday, April 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war is in its seventh week amid no signs of any ceasefire. The Covid pandemic continues to surge in China, which has once again clouded the growth outlook for the world’s second-largest economy. Inflation worries are also near the front burner of the marketplace. The U.S. data point of the week comes Tuesday with the consumer price index report for March, which is expected to come in hot at up 8.4%, year-on-year. It’s a short trading week as U.S. and other world markets are closed for Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower today and trading around $95.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.75% and hit a three-year high.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,519.75 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,444.50 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,382.00 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,155.75 and then at 14,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low. Bears are in strong technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 even and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 142 7/32 and then at 142 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low. Bears are in strong near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.03.0 and then at 120.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 119.17.0 and then at 119.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0959 and then at 1.1017. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0900 and then at the March low of 1.0845. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $98.52 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $93.81 and then at the March low of $92.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Focus is shifting to U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. It looks to be a wetter early season for corn planting and that’s bullish for corn. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is less keen late this week. There are still major concerns about the Russia-Ukraine war, a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve, rising global inflation, and spreading Covid cases in China. However, from a markets perspective, there have been no major developments on those fronts late this week, which has allowed traders and investors to exhibit just a bit more risk appetite.

In overnight news, Russia’s central bank lowered its main interest rate from 20% to 17% in a sign Russia’s financial system has stabilized after being severely disrupted by the war and economic sanctions. The Russian ruble has also staged a recovery from its depths seen in the first couple weeks of the war.

Reports said JP Morgan has warned raw commodity prices could surge by another 40% if investors move their allocations into raw materials at a time of rising inflation. Problematic inflation has been historically bullish for commodity markets.

Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer today and trading around $96.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today and hit a nearly two-year high overnight. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.67%. Treasury yields have risen significantly this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the monthly wholesale trade report and the USDA monthly supply and demand report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,528.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,588.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,444.50 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 14,861.25 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,317.00 and then at 14,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 145 even and then at Thursday’s high of 146 4/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 143 25/32 and then at 143 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.23.0 and then at 121.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 120.00.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0966 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1017. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0874 and then at the March low of 1.0845. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $98.82 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $93.81 and then at the March low of $92.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new this week. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Focus of grain traders will continue on the key outside markets (crude oil, U.S. dollar index and U.S. stock indexes), but is also shifting to U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. It looks to be a wetter early season for corn planting and that’s bullish for corn. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. A feature in the marketplace late this week is Nymex crude oil futures prices that dropped sharply on Wednesday and are presently trading below $100 a barrel. That has put just a bit of risk appetite back into a still very uncertain global marketplace amid the Russia-Ukraine war. Nymex crude oil prices are presently trading around $98.00 a barrel.

Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes released Wednesday afternoon were hawkish in tone, but typically dovish Fed governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday somewhat pre-empted the FOMC minutes by sounding aggressively hawkish on U.S. monetary policy and the inflation fight. U.S. Treasury yields are rising again and this week hit a three-year high. Treasury yields are very likely headed still higher in the coming weeks, or longer. There’s an old trading adage that says anytime a trade seems like a “no-brainer” the trader needs to be extra beware. This longtime market watcher believes there is one futures trade at present that is an exception to that old maxim: selling U.S. Treasury bond and note futures. U.S. Treasury prices fall as yields rise. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 2.585%. 

Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today and hit a nearly two-year high overnight. Greenback bulls remain very strong, technically and fundamentally.

Crypto currencies are under pressure late this week, due in part to news the U.S. Treasury is set to call for more oversight regulation of the cryptos.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the monthly chain store sales index and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,528.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,588.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,444.50 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 14,861.25 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,394.75 and then at 14,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 146 22/32 and then at 147 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 144 24/32 and then at 144 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 121.06.5 and then at 121.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 120.05.5 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0966 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1017. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0891 and then at the March low of 1.0845. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $100.00 and then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $95.43 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Focus of grain traders will continue on the key outside markets (crude oil, U.S. dollar index and U.S. stock indexes), but is also shifting to U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. It looks to be a wetter early season for corn planting and that’s bullish for corn. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war is still on the front burner of the marketplace as more economic sanctions are levied against Russia for its war atrocities against Ukrainian citizens. That is keeping energy prices elevated as European countries consider banning Russian energy imports.

The other matter on the front burner is rising inflation. Usually dovish Fed governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday said the Russia-Ukraine war has further stoked inflation and that inflation must be tamped down aggressively. She also suggested the Fed will begin selling off its big balance sheet of bonds (quantitative tightening). U.S. Treasury yields spiked up on her remarks. Traders are hoping to get better clarity of the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet intentions by scrutinizing Wednesday afternoon’s minutes from the last FOMC meeting three weeks ago. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note presently yields 2.646%. The 2-year/10-year Treasury note spread quickly snapped out of its inversion after Brainard’s hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy.

Speaking of inflation, the Euro zone reported its producer price index for February up a shocking 31.4%, year-on-year. Excluding food and energy, the PPI was up “only” 12.2% from last February.

Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $103.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the global services PMI, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the FOMC minutes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,528.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,588.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,861.25 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 146 even and then at the overnight high of 146 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 144 24/32 and then at 144 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.30.5 and then at 121.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 120.05.5 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.1017 and then at this week’s high of 1.1083. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at the March low of 1.0845. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $104.02 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some keener risk aversion at mid-week. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Focus of grain traders will continue on the key outside markets (crude oil, U.S. dollar index and U.S. stock indexes), but is also shifting to U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. It looks to be a wetter early season for corn planting and that’s bullish for corn.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed to firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China were closed for a holiday Tuesday. The civilian atrocities committed by Russian soldiers in Ukraine have ratcheted up trader and investor risk aversion this week as the West debates sanctioning Russian energy exports, which would be a crippling blow to the Russian economy, but also would severely disrupt energy supplies in Europe.

Rising Covid cases in China are also of concern to the global marketplace, as is the specter of rising inflation. Traders will closely examine Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, for clues on the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.

The 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury notes yield curve is now inverted (2-year yield above 10-year), which is one historical clue, although not 100% predictive, that the U.S. is headed for economic recession.

In other news, reports said the U.S. Mint has seen its strongest gold sales since 1999. First-quarter sales rose to 426,500 ounces, up 3.5% compared to the same period last year. The first quarter of this year was the mint’s strongest sales quarter in 23 years.  In March, the U.S. Mint reported that it sold 155,500 ounces of various denominations of its American Eagle Gold bullion coins, up 73% from February.

Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $104.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.423%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the international trade report, the ISM report on business services and the U.S. services purchasing managers index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at the March high of 4,631.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,501.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 14,801.00 and then at last week’s low of 14,658.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 149 21/32 and then at last week’s high of 150 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at 147 16/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 122.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 122.12.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 121.10.0 and then at the contract low of 120.30.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1083 and then at 1.1105. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0977 and then at 1.0935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $106.00 and then at $107.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.50 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Focus of grain traders will continue on the key outside markets (crude oil, U.S. dollar index and U.S. stock indexes), but is also shifting to U.S. weather patters as corn and soybean planting season is not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff