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Daily Morning Report

FOMC minutes in focus Wed.

April 6, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The Russia-Ukraine war is still on the front burner of the marketplace as more economic sanctions are levied against Russia for its war atrocities against Ukrainian citizens. That is keeping energy prices elevated as European countries consider banning Russian energy imports.

The other matter on the front burner is rising inflation. Usually dovish Fed governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday said the Russia-Ukraine war has further stoked inflation and that inflation must be tamped down aggressively. She also suggested the Fed will begin selling off its big balance sheet of bonds (quantitative tightening). U.S. Treasury yields spiked up on her remarks. Traders are hoping to get better clarity of the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet intentions by scrutinizing Wednesday afternoon’s minutes from the last FOMC meeting three weeks ago. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note presently yields 2.646%. The 2-year/10-year Treasury note spread quickly snapped out of its inversion after Brainard’s hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy.

Speaking of inflation, the Euro zone reported its producer price index for February up a shocking 31.4%, year-on-year. Excluding food and energy, the PPI was up “only” 12.2% from last February.

Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $103.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the global services PMI, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the FOMC minutes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,528.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,588.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,861.25 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 146 even and then at the overnight high of 146 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 144 24/32 and then at 144 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.30.5 and then at 121.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 120.05.5 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.1017 and then at this week’s high of 1.1083. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at the March low of 1.0845. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $104.02 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some keener risk aversion at mid-week. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Focus of grain traders will continue on the key outside markets (crude oil, U.S. dollar index and U.S. stock indexes), but is also shifting to U.S. weather patterns as corn and soybean planting season is not far off. It looks to be a wetter early season for corn planting and that’s bullish for corn.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted

April 5, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed to firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China were closed for a holiday Tuesday. The civilian atrocities committed by Russian soldiers in Ukraine have ratcheted up trader and investor risk aversion this week as the West debates sanctioning Russian energy exports, which would be a crippling blow to the Russian economy, but also would severely disrupt energy supplies in Europe.

Rising Covid cases in China are also of concern to the global marketplace, as is the specter of rising inflation. Traders will closely examine Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, for clues on the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.

The 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury notes yield curve is now inverted (2-year yield above 10-year), which is one historical clue, although not 100% predictive, that the U.S. is headed for economic recession.

In other news, reports said the U.S. Mint has seen its strongest gold sales since 1999. First-quarter sales rose to 426,500 ounces, up 3.5% compared to the same period last year. The first quarter of this year was the mint’s strongest sales quarter in 23 years.  In March, the U.S. Mint reported that it sold 155,500 ounces of various denominations of its American Eagle Gold bullion coins, up 73% from February.

Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $104.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.423%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the international trade report, the ISM report on business services and the U.S. services purchasing managers index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at the March high of 4,631.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,501.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 14,801.00 and then at last week’s low of 14,658.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 149 21/32 and then at last week’s high of 150 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at 147 16/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 122.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 122.12.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 121.10.0 and then at the contract low of 120.30.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1083 and then at 1.1105. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0977 and then at 1.0935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $106.00 and then at $107.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.50 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Focus of grain traders will continue on the key outside markets (crude oil, U.S. dollar index and U.S. stock indexes), but is also shifting to U.S. weather patters as corn and soybean planting season is not far off.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. Treasury prices trending down (yields up)

April 4, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

The U.S. Treasury bond and note futures markets are in price downtrends and have just recently set new contract lows. The bears are in solid near-term technical control, to suggest more downside price pressure in the near term. Rising inflation is likely to continue to drive bond and note prices down (yields up) in the coming months. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

The war drags on, but some markets moving past it

April 4, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends. Markets in mainland China were closed for a holiday Monday.

The Russia-Ukraine war drags on, with the atrocities inflicted by Russian dictator Putin’s aggression becoming more apparent to the world. Such may prompt the U.S. and European Union to implement even more sanctions on Russia, including on its oil and natural gas exports. Still, from a markets perspective, not much has changed in the war the past couple weeks. That has allowed many markets to stabilize and become less volatile.

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $99.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.395%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at the March high of 4,631.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,501.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,658.75 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 150 13/32 and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 147 29/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 122.21.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 121.24.0 and then at 121.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1083 and then at 1.1105. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0977. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $102.50 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $97.78 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded recently. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Focus of grain traders is shifting to U.S. weather patters as corn and soybean planting season is not far off now.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. jobs report on deck Friday

April 1, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends.

Here’s the latest news/analysis on the Russia-Ukraine war front from Broker SP Angel in a morning email dispatch: “The Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to end until Russians are expelled from Ukraine or to a defensible position. Russia is highly unlikely to voluntarily exit the Ukraine but may be forced into retreat if reports of significant non-compliance by troops are true. Increasing reports of Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine are encouraging Ukraine forces in their drive to expel foreign forces. A U.S. report also suggests the Russian convoy into Kyiv may no longer exist. Further reports on Russian conscripts and students being sent into battle with poor equipment support news on the poor state of the Russian army. We suspect the Ukraine military will extract a high price while they have Russian forces on the run, partly to ensure the Russian army does not want to come back in a hurry. The West is likely to continue to fund the humiliation of Russia’s once proud military machine. We expect the war to continue at least for another few months as Ukraine forces work to expel the invaders.”

In other news, Euro zone inflation accelerated to a record 7.5% in March, year-on-year, from a revised 5.9% in February, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war driving up energy costs. These numbers call into question the European Central Bank’s inflation projection of just 5.1% for the year. Money markets are now pricing in more aggressive tightening of monetary policy from the European Central Bank this year.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly U.S. employment situation report for March, which is expected to see the key non-farm payrolls number come in at up 490,000, compared to a rise of 678,000 seen in the February report.

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $100.00 a barrel. The Biden administration is releasing up to 1 million barrels a day in the coming months from its strategic petroleum reserve, for a total of 180 million barrels. The Wall Street Journal reports that commodity prices, overall, in the first quarter rose at the fastest pace in over 30 years, led by rising energy costs.

Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.404%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,631.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,509.75 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,658.75 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 150 even and then at this week’s high of 150 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 148 8/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.4

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.21.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 121.28.5 and then at 121.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls are working on starting a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1150 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0977. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $102.50 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $97.78 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed but mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Thursday’s all-important USDA planting intentions report was bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans. Corn bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage, soybeans bulls the firm overall chart advantage but are fading, and wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field, but prices are in near-term downtrends.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Gold, Crude prices have likely peaked

March 31, 2022 by Jim Wyckoff

The Comex gold futures market hit a record intra-day high of $2,078.80 in early March, but has since backed well down from that level. Trading just recently has been choppy and sideways. Technical odds do favor at least a near-term market top is in place for the yellow metal, if not a major longer-term market top. Keep an eye on crude oil prices—the leader of the raw commodity sector. Crude oil is also showing strong signs that a major market top is in place, which if is the case, is a bearish weight on most of the raw commodity sector. The raw commodity bulls do have an ace to play and that’s problematic price inflation. The question is, has higher inflation already been factored into raw commodity market prices? Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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