Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, March 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Rising Covid-19 infections in Europe and the resulting business lockdowns, and some worries about a third wave hitting the U.S., have prompted a bit keener risk aversion in the markets this week.

A marketplace feature at mid-week is that one of the world’s largest container ships got turned sideways in high winds Tuesday and became grounded in Egypt’s Suez Canal, blocking global shipping, possibly for days. Reports said about 10% of global trade runs through the Suez Canal, including crude oil. Crude oil’s rebound today after strong losses that pushed prices to a six-week low on Tuesday is likely due in part to the blockage of the canal. Still, serious near-term technical damage was inflicted in crude oil Tuesday, to strongly suggest that market has topped out and that crude prices will now trade sideways at best for an extended period. More importantly, the breakdown in crude oil futures sends a strong message to the big, speculative “fund” futures traders that the bull moves in other commodities have also run their course for now, and it may now be time for those funds to initiate bigger short positions in commodity futures markets. Crude oil is arguably the leader of the raw commodity sector and when that market suffers, traders tend to at least shy away from other commodity futures markets, if not outright sell them.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone March composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 52.5 and beat forecasts for a reading of 49.1. The Euro zone manufacturing PMI in March was 62.4 versus the forecast for 57.6. A number above 50.0 suggests growth.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell today speak to a U.S. Senate panel regarding President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package and his planned $3 trillion infrastructure program. Both spoke to a House committee Tuesday and laid out their cases for more government spending and continued monetary policy accommodation. Their comments did not have a significant impact on the markets.

The other key “outside market” today sees the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a four-month high overnight as the greenback bulls have restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The stronger dollar is also a negative for many commodity markets because many of them are priced in U.S. dollars on the world market. So when the dollar appreciates it makes those commodities more expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Meantime, the U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.623% Wednesday morning.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders the U.S. flash and services purchasing managers indexes, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,944.50 and then at the contract high of 3,978.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,875.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,172.00 and then at last week’s high of 13,287.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 4/32 and then at 157 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 156 even and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.09.0 and then at 132.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.24.0 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 4.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1873 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1833 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on a bounce after dropping sharply Tuesday and hitting a six-week low. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $60.00 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $58.00 and then at this week’s low of $57.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed but mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The higher U.S. dollar index is keeping grain market bulls tentative at mid-week. Grain traders await the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports on week from today. Trading is likely to remain quieter ahead of that data. Grain market bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Grain traders also need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. Wednesday crude futures took out on the downside the previous March low to set a six-week low, which is a clue that many of the raw commodity sector markets that had been in rally modes, may have topped out, at least for the near term, including the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, March 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is a bit keener Tuesday as Covid-19 infections and business lockdowns are on the rise in Europe again, amid vaccination rollout problems there. Also, tensions among world military and economic powers are up-ticking, as the U.S. and European Union are discussing further sanctioning China over human rights abuses, while at the same time Russia and Chinese government officials meet in a show of unity against the West.

The highlight of the trading day starts at midday, when U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell begin two days of congressional hearings over President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package and his planned $3 trillion infrastructure program. While Republicans say the plan piles up debt and risks stoking inflation with a recovery already underway, Yellen is expected to say even more government spending is needed, partly funded by higher U.S. taxes.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices sharply lower and trading around $59.35 a barrel this morning. The Covid-related lockdowns in Europe have spooked oil traders who fear another big wave of Covid infections could dent oil demand again. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.63% Tuesday morning.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the Richmond Fed business survey, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,944.50 and then at the contract high of 3,978.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,875.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,157.00 and then at last week’s high of 13,287.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,900.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,788.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 16/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 28/32 and then at this week’s low of 154 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 132.09.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.20.0 and then at the overnight low of 131.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1969 and then at 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1892 and then at the March low of 1.1861. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $60.00 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the March low of $58.28 and then at $58.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bearish “outside markets” that see a higher U.S. dollar index and sharply lower oil prices are keeping grain buyers scarce today. Grain traders await the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Trading is likely to remain quieter ahead of that data. Grain market bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Grain traders need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. If oil prices take out on the downside the March low, such would be one clue that many of the raw commodity sector markets that had been in rally modes, may have topped out, at least for the near term, including the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, the Turkish lira dropped around 10% against the U.S. dollar Monday following the abrupt firing of Turkey’s top central bank official Saturday by Turkey’s president. While this news has not significantly impacted the currency and financial markets, traders will keep a close eye on the Turkish lira in the near term.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $61.70 a barrel this morning. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly down early today.  The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.67% Monday morning.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,925.00 and then at 3,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,875.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,788.50 and then at last week’s low of 12,681.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 14/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 10/32 and then at 154 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.24.0 and then at 131.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.07.0 and then at the contract low of 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1959 and then at 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1892 and then at the March low of 1.1861. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.50 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.39 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading remains choppy as the grain traders await the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Trading is likely to remain quieter ahead of that data. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. One important element: grain traders need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. Thursday’s big price decline in crude fired a shot across the bow for raw commodity market bulls. If oil prices take out last week’s low, such would be one clue that many of the raw commodity sector markets that had been in rally modes, may have topped out, at least for the near term, including the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Friday is “quadruple witching” day for the marketplace, in which stock options, stock futures and futures options expire. Such could provide some extra volatility in the U.S. stock market today.

Geopolitics is back closer to the front burner of the marketplace to end the week. This week has seen President Biden refer to Russian President Putin as a “killer” and then on Thursday at a U.S.-China ministerial meeting in Alaska both sides lashed out at each other over various matters. While not roiling the marketplace, this week’s moves by the Biden administration toward Russia and China have put the world on notice that U.S. foreign-policy sailing might not be as smooth with Biden as many had reckoned.

U.S. Treasury bond yields are in the spotlight late this week. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield hit 1.75% Thursday—a 14-month high–and is now fetching 1.69% Friday morning. More and more, traders, investors and market watchers are moving to the higher-inflation (and possibly problematic inflation) camp. The bull run in the U.S. stock market has not been derailed, yet, but stock market bulls are a bit wobbly now.

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged at its meeting Friday. The BOJ said it expects its interest rates to remain steady or to even fall a bit.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher after getting pounded lower Thursday, trading around $61.00 a barrel this morning. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 3,978.50 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,898.50 and then at 3,875.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,713.50 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 9/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 6/32 and then at 154 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.21.5 and then at 131.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.10.0 and then at the contract low of 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1959 and then at last week’s high of 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1905 and then at the March low of 1.1861. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after getting pounded to a five-week low on Thursday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $61.33 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.11 and then at this week’s low of $58.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading remains choppy as the grain traders await the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. One important element: grain traders need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. Thursday’s big price decline in crude fired a shot across the bow for raw commodity market bulls. If oil prices take out Thursday’s low, such would be one clue that many of the raw commodity sector markets that had been in rally modes, may have topped out, at least for the near term, including the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff