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Daily Morning Report

Crude oil sees price uptrend broken

March 22, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

All commodity market traders need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. Last Thursday’s big price decline in crude negated a near-term price uptrend to suggest a near-term market top is in place. A shot has now been across the bow for raw commodity market bulls. If oil prices take out last week’s low, such would be one clue that many of the raw commodity sector markets that had been in rally modes, may have topped out, at least for the near term. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Traders eyeing Turkish lira

March 22, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, the Turkish lira dropped around 10% against the U.S. dollar Monday following the abrupt firing of Turkey’s top central bank official Saturday by Turkey’s president. While this news has not significantly impacted the currency and financial markets, traders will keep a close eye on the Turkish lira in the near term.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $61.70 a barrel this morning. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly down early today.  The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.67% Monday morning.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,925.00 and then at 3,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,875.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,788.50 and then at last week’s low of 12,681.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 14/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 10/32 and then at 154 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.24.0 and then at 131.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.07.0 and then at the contract low of 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1959 and then at 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1892 and then at the March low of 1.1861. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.50 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.39 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading remains choppy as the grain traders await the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Trading is likely to remain quieter ahead of that data. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. One important element: grain traders need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. Thursday’s big price decline in crude fired a shot across the bow for raw commodity market bulls. If oil prices take out last week’s low, such would be one clue that many of the raw commodity sector markets that had been in rally modes, may have topped out, at least for the near term, including the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Geopolitics, crude oil in focus Friday

March 19, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Friday is “quadruple witching” day for the marketplace, in which stock options, stock futures and futures options expire. Such could provide some extra volatility in the U.S. stock market today.

Geopolitics is back closer to the front burner of the marketplace to end the week. This week has seen President Biden refer to Russian President Putin as a “killer” and then on Thursday at a U.S.-China ministerial meeting in Alaska both sides lashed out at each other over various matters. While not roiling the marketplace, this week’s moves by the Biden administration toward Russia and China have put the world on notice that U.S. foreign-policy sailing might not be as smooth with Biden as many had reckoned.

U.S. Treasury bond yields are in the spotlight late this week. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield hit 1.75% Thursday—a 14-month high–and is now fetching 1.69% Friday morning. More and more, traders, investors and market watchers are moving to the higher-inflation (and possibly problematic inflation) camp. The bull run in the U.S. stock market has not been derailed, yet, but stock market bulls are a bit wobbly now.

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged at its meeting Friday. The BOJ said it expects its interest rates to remain steady or to even fall a bit.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher after getting pounded lower Thursday, trading around $61.00 a barrel this morning. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 3,978.50 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,898.50 and then at 3,875.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,713.50 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 9/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 6/32 and then at 154 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.21.5 and then at 131.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.10.0 and then at the contract low of 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1959 and then at last week’s high of 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1905 and then at the March low of 1.1861. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after getting pounded to a five-week low on Thursday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $61.33 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.11 and then at this week’s low of $58.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading remains choppy as the grain traders await the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. One important element: grain traders need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. Thursday’s big price decline in crude fired a shot across the bow for raw commodity market bulls. If oil prices take out Thursday’s low, such would be one clue that many of the raw commodity sector markets that had been in rally modes, may have topped out, at least for the near term, including the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

The inflation genie is out of the bottle

March 18, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

U.S. Treasury bond yields are on the rise again and the U.S. Treasury 10-year Treasury note yield hit 1.74% Thursday–the highest level in well over a year. The FOMC this week left U.S. monetary policy unchanged, as expected. The Fed funds rate is seen at median 0.1% until the end of 2023. The Fed added U.S. economic growth and inflation prospects are picking up steam. The Fed raised its U.S. GDP projection to 6.5% growth in 2021, from 4.2%, and sees inflation at 2.4% annually in 2021, versus its last estimate of up 1.8%. The marketplace deemed the FOMC meeting as favoring the dovish side of monetary policy more than expected. Many veteran market watchers think the Fed will be forced to raise U.S. interest rates before the two-year window has ended, given the present trajectory of U.S. inflation. It appears the inflation genie is already out of the bottle. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Fed goes easy on money policy, bond yields spike up

March 18, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to lower openings when the New York day session begins, on some mild profit taking after the Dow and S&P 500 stock indexes hit record highs Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury bond yields are on the rise again and the U.S. Treasury 10-year Treasury note yield hit 1.74% overnight–the highest level in well over a year. This is giving U.S. stock market traders pause Thursday morning.

Traders and investors are still digesting the Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that ended Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC statement said U.S. monetary policy had not changed, as expected (Fed funds rate seen at median 0.1% until the end of 2023.), but added U.S. economic growth and inflation prospects are picking up steam. The Fed raised its U.S. GDP projection to 6.5% growth in 2021, from 4.2%, and sees inflation at 2.4% annually in 2021, versus its last estimate of up 1.8%. The central bank said it will continue its present bond-buying program (quantitative easing) until substantial further progress is made on the Fed’s economic goals. The marketplace deemed the FOMC meeting and Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks in his press conference as favoring the dovish side of monetary policy more than expected, and a goldilocks scenario for the stock market. Still, many veteran market watchers think the Fed will be forced to raise U.S. interest rates before the two-year window has ended, given the present trajectory of U.S. inflation.

On the geopolitical front, the markets are not reacting much to news that President Biden has labeled Russian President Putin a “killer.”

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices a bit lower and trading around $64.35 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is firmer early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 3,978.50 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,913.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from recent solid gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,150.00 and then at this week’s high of 13,287.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,862.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 154 even and then at 155 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 153 13/32 and then at 153 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.16.0 and then at 131.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 131.05.5 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.2014 and then at 1.2050. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1905 and then at the March low of 1.1861. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $63.60 and then at $63.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading remains choppy as the grain traders await the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

FOMC meeting conclusion awaited at mid-week

March 17, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, March 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. Treasury bond yields are on the rise again and that is giving stock markets pause. The U.S. Treasury 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.641%.

Traders at mid-week are squarely focused on the Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and new U.S. economic projections, as well as a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. While no change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this week’s meeting, traders will be closely scrutinizing the Fed’s wording and Powell’s comments regarding U.S. and global economic growth and inflation prospects.

An inflation reading coming out of the Euro Zone today continues to show very tame prices. The February consumer price index came in up 0.2% from January and up 0.9%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading around $64.30 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is just a bit lower early today.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and trading just below Tuesday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 3,970.75 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,913.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a mild corrective pullback from recent solid gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,173.75 and then at this week’s high of 13,287.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 12,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near the recent contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 4/32 and then at this week’s high of 156 20/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 155 12/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near the recent contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.31.0 and then at this week’s high of 132.05.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 131.23.0 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1990 and then at last week’s high of 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1905 and then at the March low of 1.1861. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on more profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at the overnight high of $65.34. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $63.80 and then at $63.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are steady to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. Trading remains choppy as the grain traders await the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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