Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, March 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow and the S&P 500 are trading at record highs.

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data released Tuesday, including the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories. But the highlight of this busy day will be retail sales, seen coming in at down 0.5% in February, likely due to inclement weather conditions during the month.

The Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and new U.S. economic projections. While no change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this week’s meeting, traders will be closely scrutinizing wording on the Fed’s economic growth and inflation prospects.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading around $64.40 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is just a bit higher early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.603%.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit another contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,975.00 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,913.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,168.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,048.25 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 24/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 31/32 and then at the contract low of 155 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.04.5 and then at 132.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 131.23.0 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2000 and then at last week’s high of 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1934 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at the overnight high of $65.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading has been choppy and it could be that markets remain that way up until the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Investors and traders to start the trading week are more focused on better global economic growth prospects and the pandemic being tamped down by rising vaccination levels, and less focused on rising government bond yields that have at times recently produced speed bumps for the stock market bulls. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.613%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday the U.S. inflation risk is small and manageable. The Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and new U.S. economic projections. While no change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this week’s meeting, traders will be closely scrutinizing wording on the Fed’s economic growth and inflation prospects.

In overnight news, China’s retail sales in January and February were up 34% from the same period last year. Industrial output was up 35% in the period. The data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics underscores notions the world’s second-largest economy is roaring full speed ahead.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $65.88 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is a bit higher early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data. The pace of U.S. data really picks up Tuesday, including the FOMC meeting.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s record high of 3,949.00 and then at 3,975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 3,900.75 and then at 3,883.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at last week’s high of 13,110.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,682.50 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near the contract low set last Friday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 16/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 155 12/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.00.5 and then at 132.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 131.23.0 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2000 and then at last week’s high of 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.1933 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $66.40 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. It could be that markets will pause and remain choppy and sideways up until the March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, March 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on some profit taking and routine downside corrections following recent good gains that pushed the Dow and S&P 500 indexes to record highs on Thursday. Generally, trader and investor risk appetite is robust in the marketplace at present. There are no geopolitical flare-ups, major economies are healing rapidly from their pain of the pandemic and the U.S. government is set to roll out a $1.9 trillion spending package for Americans.

Government bond yields are on the rise again Friday after a very brief respite at mid-week, which has given stock market traders pause again. The closely watched U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is now fetching 1.609% in early U.S. trading Friday, and back near the highest level seen in over a year. Rising bond yields are not yet at the levels that would produce problematic price inflation, but the trajectory of the rising yields is starting to concern some market watchers. Today, the U.S. gets an inflation report in the producer price index for February, expected to be up 0.5% from January and compares to a rise of 1.3% in January from December.

In other news, Bitcoin prices rose to another record high overnight, above $58,000, before pulling back a bit.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $65.65 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a record high Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s record high of 3,949.00 and then at 3,975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,883.25 and then at Wednesday’s low of 3,847.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback from this week’s strong gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 13,110.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,695.00 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and near the contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 157 even and then at the overnight high of 157 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 155 27/32 and then at 155 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and near the recent contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at 132.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 131.23.5 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2000 and then at this week’s high of 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1933 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $66.24 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, amid a risk-off trading day so far Friday. It could be that markets will pause and remain choppy and sideways up until the March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. China’s Shanghai composite index saw its biggest one-day advance since October. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are in “risk-on” moods late this week after the U.S. Congress approved a $1.9 trillion stimulus package for Americans that will be signed by President Biden Friday. Also, Covid vaccinations continue to rise in the U.S., with health experts saying that all Americans who want a shot can likely get one by the end of April.

U.S. Treasury bond yields appear to have stabilized late this week. The closely watched U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.499% in early U.S. trading Thursday. Bond yields have been rising in recent weeks on worries about problematic inflation surfacing as the major economies of the world have turned on their money spigots wide open over the past year. Still, inflation readings from the major economies are so far not running hot.

Traders in Europe were awaiting the results of the latest meeting of the European Central Bank Thursday. No changes in EU monetary policy are expected.

The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $65.20 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is lower early today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, expected to show new claims at 725,000 compared to 745,000 in new claims reported last week.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and closing in on the record high scored in February. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,924.50 and then at the record high of 3,947.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,883.25 and then at Wednesday’s low of 3,847.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum again. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,004.25 and then at 13,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,800.00 and then at the overnight low of 12,715.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 158 28/32  and then at 159 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 24/32 and then at 157 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.00.5 and then at 133.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.14.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 132.04.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2000 and then at 1.2050. Shorter-term support is seen at  the overnight low of 1.1939 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.63 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $63.13 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking and chart consolidation. It could be that markets will pause and remain choppy and sideways up until the March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff