Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, May 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The highly anticipated Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ends this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. No changes in monetary policy are expected, but the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser will be very closely scrutinized by the marketplace. Recent warmer U.S. inflation data has prompted most traders and analysts to dial back their timelines on any interest rate cuts from the Fed, if they come at all this year. There is a small camp of Fed watchers that think the next interest rate move by the Fed will be to hike. Most expect Powell to remain hawkish on U.S. monetary policy in his remarks today. Markets could become more active this afternoon. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Fed has patience to let high rates work.”

On Friday morning comes the U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $80.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.69%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the job openings and labor (JOLTS) report, domestic auto industry sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,085.00 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at the April low of 5,037.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,600.00 and then at 17,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,300.00 and then at 17,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 114 25/32 and then at 115 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 16/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.04.0 and then at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0648 and then at the April low of 1.0628. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.00 and then at last week’s high of $84.46. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Markets are seeing selling this week amid fears of “stagflation” in the U.S. economy in the coming months. Wheat and soybean meal prices are still trending higher but bulls have faded this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

This week’s U.S. data highlights include the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. No changes in monetary policy are expected, but the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser will be very closely scrutinized by the marketplace. Recent warmer U.S. inflation data has prompted traders and analysts to dial back their timelines on interest rate cuts from the Fed, if they come at all this year.

A headline in the Wall Street Journal today reads: “Fed to signal it has stomach to keep rates higher for longer.” The story was written by reporter Nick Timiraos, who many believe has the inside track on getting top Fed officials to talk with him. He writes: “Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future.” Timiraos added the Fed will hold interest rates a level that will “provide meaningful restraint” to U.S. economic activity for longer than the Fed previously anticipated.

On Friday morning comes the U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan confirmed it intervened significantly in the foreign exchange market Monday to support the yen.

Also, Eurozone inflation held steady in April as the consumer price index was up 2.4%, year-on-year, which is the same as reported in March.

China’s Communist Party Politburo on Tuesday signaled it wants to continue to prop up its economy by cutting interest rates, especially to support its listing property sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $82.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.634%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the employment cost index, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic home indexes, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,185.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at 5,070.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,791.25 and then at 17,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 115 5/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 113 30/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 108.08.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.5 and then at 107.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at last week’s low of 1.0648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $84.46 and then at $85.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at last week’s low of $80.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Markets are seeing corrective selling early this week, following recent price gains. Wheat and soybean meal prices are trending higher. More gains in beans and corn in the near term would suggest price uptrends can develop in those markets, too.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have stabilized their markets the past week, after they spent three weeks trending down. Still, veteran stock market watchers know the old saying, “Sell in May and go away” until after Labor Day.

It’s a very busy U.S. data week, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. No changes in monetary policy are expected, but the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser will be very closely scrutinized by the marketplace. Recent warmer U.S. inflation data has prompted traders and analysts to dial back their timelines on interest rate cuts from the Fed, if they come at all this year. Former Fed official Roger Ferguson said on CNBC today that he expects Powell to sound a hawkish tone this week. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “High rates appear on track to persist long term.” On Friday morning comes the U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $83.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.64%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,185.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at 5,070.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 17,668.25 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 115 5/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at last week’s low of 112 27/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.18.5 and then at 107.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage as prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at last week’s low of 1.0648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $84.46 and then at $85.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at last week’s low of $80.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Wheat prices are trending higher. More gains in beans and corn in the near term would suggest price uptrends can develop.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. 

The U.S. data point of the day Friday is the personal income and outlays report that includes the PCE inflation indexes that the Federal Reserve watches very closely. The PCE price index is seen coming in up 2.6%, year-on-year. The core PCE index (excluding food and energy) is seen up 2.7% on an annual basis. Thursday’s PCE inflation numbers in the 1Q GDP report came in warmer than expected.

In overnight news, DowJones Newswires reported that Chinese gold buyers, “spooked by a protracted property slump and recent stock market rout, are rushing toward gold as economic uncertainty looms, propelling a global bullion rally.” Gold consumption in China in the first quarter rose nearly 6% from a year earlier. China’s imports of gold raw materials rose by 78% in the same period.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit higher. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly up and trading around $84.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.692%. U.S. Treasury yields this week have hit five-month highs. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,165.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 17,827.50 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,600.00 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 114 even and then at this week’s high of 115 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 112 27/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.04.0 and then at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage as prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at this week’s low of 1.0648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at $85.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at this week’s low of $80.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing clues that market bottoms are in place. Wheat prices are now trending higher. More gains in beans and corn in the near term would suggest price uptrends can develop.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff