Daily Morning Report

Thursday, September 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings
when the New York day session begins. It’s been a quieter
week on the fundamental news front, with the ongoing U.S.-
China trade war the main focus. However, traders and
investors are fatigued with that news and the markets are
reacting less and less to the latest salvos.

In overnight news, Turkey’s finance minister said his
country will experience lower economic growth and higher
inflation in the coming two years, with annual inflation
reaching a whopping 20%. The Turkish lira is down 40%
against the U.S. dollar this year.

Japan’s prime minister Abe on Thursday was re-elected as
his party’s leader by a landslide.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
lower as the bulls are fading this week. Meantime, Nymex
crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $71.50 a
barrel. However, around present price levels rallies have
been capped several times this year.

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Wednesday, September 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There continues to be little to sometimes only modest risk aversion in the world marketplace at present.

Amid a lack of other fresh fundamental news so far this week, focus remains on the trade war between the U.S. and China. The U.S. hit China with more tariffs this week and China vowed to retaliate. Many traders and investors took note Tuesday of a comment by Alibaba founder Jack Ma, who said the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies could take decades to resolve. Ma implied that the Chinese culture won’t allow that nation to “give in.” But Americans reckon President Trump won’t either. The U.S.-China trade war and the recent strength of the U.S. dollar have hit emerging markets and their currencies hard the past few months.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker and Nymex crude oil prices slightly down and trading just below $70.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil futures market once again saw a price rally turned back by stiff technical resistance layers that are located just above present price levels. Four times in the past few months rallies have been halted by the chart resistance around and just above $71.00 a barrel. Such suggests sideways-at-best trading action for the crude oil market in the coming weeks, or longer, barring a major geopolitical event in the oil-rich Middle East or in some other oil-producing region of the world. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, September 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock market bulls point out that we are now more than half way through what can be the historically turbulent month of September with no significant speed bumps yet encountered.

The marketplace is not showing a major reaction to the news Monday afternoon that President Trump will slap another $200 billion in tariffs against China, to which China vowed to retaliate, and to which Trump said he would retaliate to the retaliation. Reports said the world’s two largest economies still plan to hold trade talks later this month.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer and Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading just below $70.00 a barrel. Stiff chart resistance above the market has capped gains, and will likely continue to do so.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

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Monday, September 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are in a risk-off mode to start the trading week, as reports say the Trump administration is set to slap more tariffs on China in the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Reports also said China is considering declining the U.S. offer for new trade talks later this month.

In overnight news, the Euro zone August consumer price index came in at up 0.2% from July and up 2.0%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

–Jim

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The grain market bears are growling as they have taken full control of the grain markets, following a generally bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report released at mid-week. As the U.S. corn and soybean harvest picks up speed in the next few weeks, look for harvest-related selling pressure in the cash markets to continue to squelch buyers–probably until early November. The best the bulls can hope for is price stabilization in the next few weeks, but more likely will be a sideways-to-lower grind in prices, to establish more contract lows in corn and soybeans–and wheat will be a follower. Stay tuned!