Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, September 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock market bulls point out that we are now more than half way through what can be the historically turbulent month of September with no significant speed bumps yet encountered.

The marketplace is not showing a major reaction to the news Monday afternoon that President Trump will slap another $200 billion in tariffs against China, to which China vowed to retaliate, and to which Trump said he would retaliate to the retaliation. Reports said the world’s two largest economies still plan to hold trade talks later this month.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer and Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading just below $70.00 a barrel. Stiff chart resistance above the market has capped gains, and will likely continue to do so.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

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Monday, September 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are in a risk-off mode to start the trading week, as reports say the Trump administration is set to slap more tariffs on China in the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Reports also said China is considering declining the U.S. offer for new trade talks later this month.

In overnight news, the Euro zone August consumer price index came in at up 0.2% from July and up 2.0%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

–Jim

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The grain market bears are growling as they have taken full control of the grain markets, following a generally bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report released at mid-week. As the U.S. corn and soybean harvest picks up speed in the next few weeks, look for harvest-related selling pressure in the cash markets to continue to squelch buyers–probably until early November. The best the bulls can hope for is price stabilization in the next few weeks, but more likely will be a sideways-to-lower grind in prices, to establish more contract lows in corn and soybeans–and wheat will be a follower. Stay tuned!

Friday, September 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are not far below their recent record highs. The marketplace continues to see trader and investor attitudes generally upbeat.

Reports Thursday said the U.S. has made an overture to China to restart trade talks later this month. However, a tweet from President Trump on Thursday was not deemed upbeat on an imminent U.S.-China trade agreement.

The major U.S. economic report of the day Friday is retail sales for August, which are seen up 0.4% from July.

In overnight news, the Turkish lira has rallied against the U.S. dollar Friday after Turkey’s central bank raised interest rates by 6.25% on Thursday.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading just below $69.00 a barrel.

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Thursday, September 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace sees trader and investor attitudes remaining generally upbeat. Traders are watching for the latest developments on the U.S.-China trade war front, after the U.S. on Thursday reportedly made an overture to China to restart negotiations later this month. Reports Wednesday also said the U.S. and Canada are close to reaching a trade deal.

Today the European Central Bank meets and is expected to report it will continue to pull back from years of a very easy monetary policy. The Bank of England also holds is regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

On tap in the U.S. today is the August consumer price index, which is expected to come in up 0.3% from July. The producer price index on Wednesday came in lower than expected.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower on some profit taking and trading around $69.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, the consumer price index, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

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The December U.S. Treasury bond futures markets now shows prices are in a fledgling downtrend and the bears have the near-term technical advantage. That means the path of least resistance for T-Bond prices will remain sideways to lower until a technical development occurs to suggest otherwise. You’ll find those early clues on market trend changes in my daily markets update that comes out Monday-Thursday afternoons. Stay tuned!