Daily Morning Report

Friday, October 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders are looking ahead to Friday morning’s important September employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000 compared to a rise of 187,000 in the September report. Wednesday’s big downside miss in the ADP jobs report has many thinking the more important jobs report Friday morning will also be a miss to the downside. A weakening U.S. economy would actually be a good thing of sorts for the marketplace, in that it would likely cool the ascent in bond yields.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $82.50 a barrel. Just last week Nymex crude prices poked just above $95.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.738%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,335.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,355.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,235.50 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. Both are below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,060.75 and then at 15,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 14,716.25 and then at the September low of 14,586.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 112 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 113 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 109 20/32 and then at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 107.14.0 and then at this week’s high of 107.29.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 106.18.00 and then at the contract low of 106.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0652 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0482 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at $86.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new today. Risk aversion in the general marketplace recently is keeping the grain market bulls timid. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are fully bearish for corn, wheat and meal, and moderately bearish for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, October 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not keen at mid-week, following the ouster of the U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives Tuesday afternoon. The AP said “it was a stunning moment for Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a punishment fueled by growing grievances but sparked by his decision to work with Democrats to keep the federal government open rather than risk a shutdown. Removing the speaker launches House Republicans into chaos heading into a busy fall when Congress will need to fund the U.S. government again or risk a mid-November shutdown.”

And then there’s the U.S. Treasury sell off that has the marketplace spooked. A Barron’s headline today reads: “The bond and stock sell off has momentum. Here’s how it could end.” The story goes on to say “markets have decided to pay attention to the prospect of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer. And now that’s all they can see.” The story said the ways the bond market rout can end would be if the Fed stops or reduces its bond selling. Or, “something breaks.” The article added weakening U.S. economic data may be needed to help turn the tide of the higher rates narrative. “Friday’s September jobs report could be the place for that to begin.”

Indeed, traders are starting to look ahead to Friday’s September employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000 compared to a rise of 187,000 in the September report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a 10-month high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $88.00 a barrel. There is an OPEC meeting today. Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.817% and has hit a 16-year high.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the ISM report on business services, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-month low overnight. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,300.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 4,335.75. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,235.50 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,850.00 and then at last week’s high of 15,060.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 14,586.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 112 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 113 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 109 20/32 and then at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 107.14.0 and then at this week’s high of 107.29.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight contract low of 106.03.5 and then at 106.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer on short covering after hitting a 10-month low on Tuesday. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at 1.0652. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0482 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a more-than-two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $89.59 and then at Tuesday’s high of $90.27. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.00 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Risk aversion in the general marketplace is keeping the grain market bulls very timid. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are fully bearish for corn, wheat and meal, and moderately bearish for soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is still digesting the “higher for longer” U.S. interest rate scenario. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield is at its highest level since 2007. A Barron’s headline today reads: “The bond sell off is gathering pace. Why the Fed isn’t intervening.” The story suggests the Federal Reserve is content with rising Treasury yields as it helps in the inflation battle the central bank is presently waging.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank left its main interest rate unchanged, but said further monetary policy tightening may be warranted.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting another 10-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $88.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.699% and this week has hit a 16-year high. December Comex gold futures hit a 10-month low overnight, while silver hit a 6.5-month low.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and domestic auto industry sales.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,295.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,277.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,060.75 and then at 15,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,826.00 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 113 24/32 and then at 114 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 111 31/32 and then at 111 20/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.14.0 and then at Monday’s high of 107.29.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.00.0 and then at 106.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0550 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0494 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a more-than-two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at Monday’s high of $91.88. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.00 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower in overnight trading. Not much new. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Risk attitudes are more upbeat to start the trading week. In a last-minute effort to prevent a U.S. government shutdown, President Biden over the weekend signed into a law a stopgap measure to fund the federal government for 47 more days, through Nov. 17. Most of the marketplace figured the government would shut down over the weekend. However, the Senate, following a strong push from House Democrats, approved the measure in a lopsided vote. This 11th-hour decision ensures the continuation of various government services and the payment of federal employees, at least temporarily. However, lawmakers still need to finalize a permanent budget appropriation plan to address the nation’s financial needs.

China got some slightly upbeat economic data over the weekend as its factors in September reported their first expansion in activity since the spring. China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.2 in September from 49.7 in August. A reading above 50.0 suggests expansion.

Reports say the Bank of Japan is closely watching the foreign exchange market as the yen continues to depreciate against the U.S. dollar. 

Meantime, Comex gold futures prices hit a 10-month low overnight amid rising U.S. Treasury yields and the strong U.S. dollar.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $91.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark `U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.631%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and the global manufacturing PMI. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Powell, are scheduled to speak today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,277.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,060.75 and then at 15,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,750.00 and then at the September low of 14,586.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 114 24/32 and then at 115 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 112 10/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.29.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 107.07.0 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0627 and then at last week’s high of 1.0693. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0525 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $93.10 and then at the September high of $95.03. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00 and then at last week’s low of $88.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is a bearish seasonal factor. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the USDA crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock indexes are seeing corrective rebounds from recent selling pressure. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “The 2023 stock market rally sputters in new world of yield.”

Today is the last trading day of the week, of the month and of the quarter. That makes it an extra important trading day for markets, from a technical perspective.

The clock is ticking at the month of September winds down and the U.S. Congress has not come to agreement to fund the U.S. government. A shutdown looks likely this weekend. This matter still has traders and investors more risk averse.

In overnight news, the Euro zone September consumer price index came in at up 4.3%, year-on-year, compared to the August reading of up 5.2%. The August CPI was slightly below market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a downside correction after hitting a 10-month high earlier this week. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $92.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.549%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, advance economic indicators, the ISM Chicago business survey and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce. Prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,327.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,277.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,750.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,586.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 115 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 113 15/32 and then at the contract low of 112 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.25.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at overnight low of 107.26.0 and then at the contract low of 107.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a 10-month low Wednesday. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0693 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0593 and then at this week’s low of 1.0525. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 13-month high Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $95.03 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $90.40 and then at this week’s low of $88.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. The keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is limiting buying interest in the grain futures. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing. That is also a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal. On tap today is the quarterly grain stocks and small grains reports from USDA. Traders are most interested in corn stocks data.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff