Daily Morning Report

Friday, January 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. News that the German lawmakers have formed a coalition government worked to lift the Euro currency to a four-year high against the U.S. dollar, and also boosted the European stock markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings and new record highs when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices hit a four-month high overnight, on technical buying and on currency moves that included a rallying Euro and a weakening U.S. dollar.

The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower and at a 3.5-month low. The greenback bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, to suggest more pressure in the near term.

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Thursday, January 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight, as a rout in world government bond markets stabilized Thursday. The Chinese government reportedly denied reports out Wednesday that it would scale back its purchases of U.S. Treasury securities. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

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March U.S. T-Bond futures have sunk to a contract low in rapid fashion. There have been recent prognostications from noted financial market analysts that the long-term bull market runs in U.S. Treasuries are over. Longer-term technical damage has been inflicted on T-Bond and T-Note charts. This suggests rising interest rates and rising inflation. While the tighter monetary policies that generally come with rising inflation have been bearish for the commodity markets, per recent history, longer-term history actually shows that hard assets benefit from rising inflation. Times of problematic inflation see the investing public generally opt for hard assets over paper assets. The next shoe to drop in this scenario of rising inflation will be a major top being put in the U.S. stock market. Stay tuned!–Jim

Wednesday, January 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower in overnight dealings. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes hit record highs on Tuesday and some profit-taking pressure is not unexpected.

The feature in the marketplace Wednesday is rising world government bond yields. This has helped to pressure global stock markets, while boosting safe-haven gold and silver prices.

There have been recent prognostications from noted financial market analysts that the long-term bull market runs in U.S. Treasuries are over. Longer-term technical damage has been inflicted on T-Bond and T-Note charts. This suggests rising interest rates and rising inflation. While the tighter monetary policies that generally come with rising inflation have been bearish for the commodity markets, per recent history, longer-term history actually shows that hard assets benefit from rising inflation. Times of problematic inflation see the investing public generally opt for hard assets over paper assets. The next shoe to drop in this scenario of rising inflation will be a major top being put in the U.S. stock market.

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Tuesday, January 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight dealings. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes poked to new record highs again overnight. There continues to be little risk aversion in the world marketplace, at present.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s unemployment rate dropped to 8.7% in November, which is the lowest level in nine years.

The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher on another corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. While the greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls are out of the shoot in good fashion so far this week.

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The Euro currency is one of the most popularly traded futures markets in the world. See on the daily bar chart that the Euro currency is in a two-month-old uptrend and last week hit a 3.5-month high. The Euro bulls have the near-term technical advantage, which suggests the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to higher in the near term. Stay tuned!–Jim