Daily Morning Report

The corn and wheat futures markets have embarked upon fresh downtrends and are at or near their contract lows. It appears there will be a bit more downside pressure coming in the corn and wheat markets. However, at their present low price levels, I don’t look for solid downside action. In fact, I suspect that in the coming few weeks the corn and wheat futures will put in market bottoms. That does not mean fresh price uptrends in corn and wheat will develop soon, but more likely just sideways and choppy trading (basing action) that will eventually kick off price uptrends. Stay tuned!–Jim

Tuesday, November 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open higher when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are at record highs. Focus for investors and traders this week includes a U.S. tax-cut plan being pushed through Congress, with its eventual passage still uncertain. The OPEC oil cartel also meets on Thursday. Fed Chairman nominee Jerome Powell also testifies Tuesday afternoon at his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee.

In overnight news, the Paris-based OECD think tank said global economic growth in 2017 will be the best in seven years. The OECD said world economic growth in 2018 will also be good.

The U.S. dollar index is firmer today on a technical bounce from recent selling pressure. The dollar index bears still have the near-term technical advantage, which means the likely path for the greenback will remain sideways to lower.

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Monday, November 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. Asian stocks were mostly lower and European stocks were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings ahead of the New York day session. U.S. stock indexes are at record highs. Early reports on the Christmas shopping season report very busy activity.

The important outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower and hitting a two-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart.

Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-year high on Friday. Oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff chart resistance layers lie just above the market. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s OPEC oil cartel meeting.

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies rolled into one composite index price. See on the daily bar chart for the USDX that a price uptrend has been negated recently and prices are now in a fledgling downtrend. The greenback bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, which means the path of least resistance for the index will be sideways to lower for at least the near term. This is good news for the raw commodity market bulls. Most major raw commodities are priced in U.S. dollars on world markets. When the dollar depreciates against other currencies, it makes those raw commodities cheaper to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Stay tuned!–Jim

Friday, November 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed to firmer openings ahead of the opening of the New York day session. U.S. stock indexes this week have hit record highs. The U.S. stock market closes early today.

Some upbeat economic data coming out of Germany Thursday and Friday suggest the political instability there has not impacted the economy, so far. The German Ifo business climate index came in at 117.5 in November—well above market expectations and at a record high. The Ifo report said the German economy is on track for a boom. This news rallied the Euro currency to a five-week high on Friday.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market remains in a solid uptrend as prices are moving in on new highs for the year. There is no doubt the bulls are in firm near-term technical control. However, there is strong psychological resistance that lies just overhead–around the $60.00 level. It’s my bias that crude prices will challenge the $60.00 level and may even poke above it. However, it is doubtful crude oil prices can hold above $60.00 for very long. There are just too many bearish supply and demand fundamentals at work to keep crude prices above that key lelvel. Stay tuned!–Jim