Nymex crude oil futures remain in a solid price uptrend, even though the market has paused this week. Bulls remain in firm overall near-term technical control and there have been no near-term chart developments that would suggest prices have hit a top. However, it’s still my bias, based upon supply and demand fundamentals in the world at present, that oil prices cannot sustain levels much above $60.00 a barrel, if even that. Stay tuned!–Jim
Daily Morning Report
U.S. Stock Indexes Firmer; OPEC Meeting in Focus
Thursday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight, but European stock indexes were mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are set to open higher and at fresh record highs when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, the Eurozone reported its consumer price index up 1.5% in November from up 1.4% in October. The October jobless rate came in at 8.8% from 8.9% in September. The November jobless rate was the lowest since January of 2009. Today’s Euro zone data falls into the camp of the monetary policy hawks, who want the European Central Bank to raise interest rate soon.
Investors and traders are awaiting the end result of a U.S. tax-cut plan being pushed through Congress. The Senate is likely to vote on the tax legislation soon. It is not a clear-cut consensus that this bill will pass the Senate.
Markets Shrug Off Latest North Korea Missile Launch
Wednesday, November 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were again mostly higher overnight, following the lead of record highs scored in U.S. stock indexes Tuesday. Today, U.S. stock indexes are set to open higher and at more record highs when the New York day session begins.
Somewhat surprisingly, the world marketplace is not reacting significantly to news North Korea launched another ballistic missile Tuesday—one the U.S. military said could reach anywhere in the world. The U.S. has called an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. President Trump on Tuesday said of the latest North Korea missile launch: “We will take care of it.” Markets and traders are fickle. Don’t be surprised if markets do show bigger reactions on the next development with North Korea.
Corn, Wheat Markets Slumping Again, But Downside Limited
The corn and wheat futures markets have embarked upon fresh downtrends and are at or near their contract lows. It appears there will be a bit more downside pressure coming in the corn and wheat markets. However, at their present low price levels, I don’t look for solid downside action. In fact, I suspect that in the coming few weeks the corn and wheat futures will put in market bottoms. That does not mean fresh price uptrends in corn and wheat will develop soon, but more likely just sideways and choppy trading (basing action) that will eventually kick off price uptrends. Stay tuned!–Jim
Marketplace Focused on U.S. Tax Legislation, Fed Chair Nominee, OPEC
Tuesday, November 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open higher when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are at record highs. Focus for investors and traders this week includes a U.S. tax-cut plan being pushed through Congress, with its eventual passage still uncertain. The OPEC oil cartel also meets on Thursday. Fed Chairman nominee Jerome Powell also testifies Tuesday afternoon at his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee.
In overnight news, the Paris-based OECD think tank said global economic growth in 2017 will be the best in seven years. The OECD said world economic growth in 2018 will also be good.
The U.S. dollar index is firmer today on a technical bounce from recent selling pressure. The dollar index bears still have the near-term technical advantage, which means the likely path for the greenback will remain sideways to lower.
Global Equity Markets Mixed to Start Trading Week
Monday, November 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. Asian stocks were mostly lower and European stocks were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings ahead of the New York day session. U.S. stock indexes are at record highs. Early reports on the Christmas shopping season report very busy activity.
The important outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower and hitting a two-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-year high on Friday. Oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff chart resistance layers lie just above the market. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s OPEC oil cartel meeting.