Daily Morning Report

Friday, September 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have become wobblier late this week, following Wednesday’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting that saw the Federal Reserve lean even more hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. A Wall Street Journal story today has a headline: “Higher rates not just for longer–maybe forever.”

The United Auto Workers union strike in the U.S. is also starting to impact businesses nationwide and that’s also dampening trader and investor risk appetite.

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, keeping it ultra loose. The key deposit rate was kept at -0.1%. The BOJ kept its 10-year bond yield cap at 1.0%. The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar, which is beginning to worry the marketplace a bit.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a 6.5-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $90.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently at a multi-year high and fetching 4.478%–the highest since 2007.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,447.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 4,508.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,366.00 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up and hit a four-week low in overnight trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,836.25 and then at the August low of 14,792.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 117 even and then at Thursday’s high of 117 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 108.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 108.08.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit another 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0706 and then at this week’s high of 1.0778. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.07 and then at this week’s high of $92.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $88.37 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is moving into full swing. That is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crops to the local elevators. Technicals are overall fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is reacting to the hawkish tone of the just-completed FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, Wednesday afternoon, including a press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. Barrons in an article today said, “The central bank succeeded in shifting the focus from anticipation over the timing of the first rate cuts to realization and acceptance that rates will remain higher for longer.”

Said analyst Ed Moya from OANDA: “U.S. stocks dropped and king dollar returned after the Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled one more rate hike will happen this year. The U.S. economy is too strong and this rate-hiking cycle will last a lot longer than Wall Street wants. It is clear that higher-for-longer will be the Fed’s theme for a while…. If we continue to see an extended period of time that the economy performs well, the growth/inflation mix will lead to a harder-hitting lag from their rate-hiking cycle.” 

The Bank of England held its regular monetary policy meeting today and kept its interest rates unchanged, as expected. Meantime, Switzerland’s central bank also held its rates steady after a string of rate hikes.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $88.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently at a multi-year high and fetching 4.441%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,447.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 4,508.00. Support for active traders is seen at the August low of 4,397.75 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,149.00 and then at 15,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,940.00 and then at the August low of 14,792.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 28/32 and then at 118 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 117 even and then at 116 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight of 108.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 108.16.0 and then at 108.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0704 and then at this week’s high of 1.0778. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0656 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a 10-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at this week’s high of $92.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $88.00 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is ramping up, and that is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crop to the local elevator. Technicals are overall fully bearish for corn and wheat, and slightly bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Today is the main event for the marketplace this week: the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Most look for the FOMC to stand pat on U.S. monetary policy, but still sound a hawkish tone.

In overnight news, the marketplace was a bit disappointed that China’s central bank decided to leave its key interest rates unchanged, despite its listing economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $90.50 a barrel. There are higher odds Nymex crude oil prices will hit $100 a barrel in the coming weeks. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.343%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,566.00 and then at the September high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,462.25 and then at 4,425.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,248.50 and then at 15,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 119 even and then at 119 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the contract low of 117 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.20.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 109.03.0 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at last week’s high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0713 and then at the September low of 1.0675. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a 10-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $91.62 and then at this week’s high of $93.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to firmer in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is ramping up, and that is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crop to the local elevator. Technicals are overall fully bearish for corn and wheat, and slightly bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff