Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, September 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

 Asian and European stocks were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are in risk-off moods early this week, amid the high potential for a U.S. government shutdown this coming weekend. The Associated Press reports “there’s no clear path ahead as lawmakers return with tensions high and options limited.” The U.S. House is expected to vote Tuesday evening on a package of bills to fund parts of the government, but it’s not clear that House Speaker McCarthy has the support needed to move ahead. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate is preparing its own bipartisan plan for a stopgap measure to buy some time and keep offices funded past Saturday’s deadline. “A government shutdown would disrupt the U.S. economy and the lives of millions of Americans,” said the AP.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently at a multi-year high and fetching 4.509%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core Logic house price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, the consumer confidence index, and new residential sales.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,338.25 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,782.25 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Short covering is featured. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 even and then at 117 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 114 16/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight contract low of 108.00.5 and then at 107.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 10-month low overnight. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0693 and then at last week’s high of 1.0778. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $90.83 and then at last week’s high of $92.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $88.19 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Not much new recently in the grain markets. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing. That is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crops to the local elevators. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, September 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Shutdown, strikes, sticky inflation, and more…brace for a bumpy fourth quarter.”

Traders and investors are in risk-off moods to start the trading week, amid the high potential for a U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. House and Senate return Tuesday after a long weekend in observance of Yom Kippur. The Senate will vote on a measure Tuesday to take up a short-term funding solution, called a continuing resolution.

In overnight news, China property developer Evergrande’s stock plunged as much as 25% Monday after the developer said it cannot meet regulator conditions to issue new bonds as part of its planned restructuring of at least $30 billion of offshore debt, according to Bloomberg.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and near a 6.5-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $90.50 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently at a multi-year high and fetching around 4.5%–the highest since 2007.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and hit a 3.5-month low overnight. Bulls are fading as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at 4,447.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,347.25 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker hit a five-week low in overnight trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the August low of 14,792.75 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 even and then at 117 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 108.08.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0711 and then at last week’s high of 1.0778. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0653 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $91.33 and then at last week’s high of $92.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $88.37 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly crop progress and export inspections reports. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn has moved into full swing. That is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crops to the local elevators. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have become wobblier late this week, following Wednesday’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting that saw the Federal Reserve lean even more hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. A Wall Street Journal story today has a headline: “Higher rates not just for longer–maybe forever.”

The United Auto Workers union strike in the U.S. is also starting to impact businesses nationwide and that’s also dampening trader and investor risk appetite.

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, keeping it ultra loose. The key deposit rate was kept at -0.1%. The BOJ kept its 10-year bond yield cap at 1.0%. The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar, which is beginning to worry the marketplace a bit.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a 6.5-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $90.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently at a multi-year high and fetching 4.478%–the highest since 2007.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,447.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 4,508.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,366.00 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up and hit a four-week low in overnight trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,836.25 and then at the August low of 14,792.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 117 even and then at Thursday’s high of 117 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 108.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 108.08.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit another 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0706 and then at this week’s high of 1.0778. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.07 and then at this week’s high of $92.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $88.37 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is moving into full swing. That is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crops to the local elevators. Technicals are overall fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is reacting to the hawkish tone of the just-completed FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, Wednesday afternoon, including a press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. Barrons in an article today said, “The central bank succeeded in shifting the focus from anticipation over the timing of the first rate cuts to realization and acceptance that rates will remain higher for longer.”

Said analyst Ed Moya from OANDA: “U.S. stocks dropped and king dollar returned after the Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled one more rate hike will happen this year. The U.S. economy is too strong and this rate-hiking cycle will last a lot longer than Wall Street wants. It is clear that higher-for-longer will be the Fed’s theme for a while…. If we continue to see an extended period of time that the economy performs well, the growth/inflation mix will lead to a harder-hitting lag from their rate-hiking cycle.” 

The Bank of England held its regular monetary policy meeting today and kept its interest rates unchanged, as expected. Meantime, Switzerland’s central bank also held its rates steady after a string of rate hikes.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $88.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently at a multi-year high and fetching 4.441%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,447.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 4,508.00. Support for active traders is seen at the August low of 4,397.75 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,149.00 and then at 15,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,940.00 and then at the August low of 14,792.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 28/32 and then at 118 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 117 even and then at 116 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight of 108.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 108.16.0 and then at 108.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0704 and then at this week’s high of 1.0778. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0656 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a 10-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at this week’s high of $92.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $88.00 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is ramping up, and that is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crop to the local elevator. Technicals are overall fully bearish for corn and wheat, and slightly bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff