Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, October 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is still digesting the “higher for longer” U.S. interest rate scenario. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield is at its highest level since 2007. A Barron’s headline today reads: “The bond sell off is gathering pace. Why the Fed isn’t intervening.” The story suggests the Federal Reserve is content with rising Treasury yields as it helps in the inflation battle the central bank is presently waging.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank left its main interest rate unchanged, but said further monetary policy tightening may be warranted.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting another 10-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $88.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.699% and this week has hit a 16-year high. December Comex gold futures hit a 10-month low overnight, while silver hit a 6.5-month low.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and domestic auto industry sales.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,295.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,277.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,060.75 and then at 15,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,826.00 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 113 24/32 and then at 114 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 111 31/32 and then at 111 20/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.14.0 and then at Monday’s high of 107.29.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.00.0 and then at 106.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0550 and then at 1.0600. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0494 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a more-than-two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at Monday’s high of $91.88. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.00 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower in overnight trading. Not much new. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Risk attitudes are more upbeat to start the trading week. In a last-minute effort to prevent a U.S. government shutdown, President Biden over the weekend signed into a law a stopgap measure to fund the federal government for 47 more days, through Nov. 17. Most of the marketplace figured the government would shut down over the weekend. However, the Senate, following a strong push from House Democrats, approved the measure in a lopsided vote. This 11th-hour decision ensures the continuation of various government services and the payment of federal employees, at least temporarily. However, lawmakers still need to finalize a permanent budget appropriation plan to address the nation’s financial needs.

China got some slightly upbeat economic data over the weekend as its factors in September reported their first expansion in activity since the spring. China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.2 in September from 49.7 in August. A reading above 50.0 suggests expansion.

Reports say the Bank of Japan is closely watching the foreign exchange market as the yen continues to depreciate against the U.S. dollar. 

Meantime, Comex gold futures prices hit a 10-month low overnight amid rising U.S. Treasury yields and the strong U.S. dollar.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $91.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark `U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.631%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and the global manufacturing PMI. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Powell, are scheduled to speak today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,277.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,060.75 and then at 15,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,750.00 and then at the September low of 14,586.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 114 24/32 and then at 115 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 112 10/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.29.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 107.07.0 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0627 and then at last week’s high of 1.0693. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0525 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $93.10 and then at the September high of $95.03. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00 and then at last week’s low of $88.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is a bearish seasonal factor. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the USDA crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock indexes are seeing corrective rebounds from recent selling pressure. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “The 2023 stock market rally sputters in new world of yield.”

Today is the last trading day of the week, of the month and of the quarter. That makes it an extra important trading day for markets, from a technical perspective.

The clock is ticking at the month of September winds down and the U.S. Congress has not come to agreement to fund the U.S. government. A shutdown looks likely this weekend. This matter still has traders and investors more risk averse.

In overnight news, the Euro zone September consumer price index came in at up 4.3%, year-on-year, compared to the August reading of up 5.2%. The August CPI was slightly below market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a downside correction after hitting a 10-month high earlier this week. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $92.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.549%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, advance economic indicators, the ISM Chicago business survey and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce. Prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,327.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,277.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,750.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,586.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 115 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 113 15/32 and then at the contract low of 112 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.25.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at overnight low of 107.26.0 and then at the contract low of 107.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a 10-month low Wednesday. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0693 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0593 and then at this week’s low of 1.0525. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 13-month high Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $95.03 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $90.40 and then at this week’s low of $88.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. The keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is limiting buying interest in the grain futures. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing. That is also a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal. On tap today is the quarterly grain stocks and small grains reports from USDA. Traders are most interested in corn stocks data.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite remains dented as the U.S. government shutdown this weekend looms. The Associated Press reports: “As the Senate marches ahead with a bipartisan approach to prevent a government shutdown, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is back to square one — asking his hard-right Republicans to do what they have said they would never do: approve their own temporary House measure to keep the government open.” Goldman Sachs reportedly estimates the shutdown will probably last three weeks.

A Barron’s headline today reads: “Forget the shutdown. Why stocks have plenty more to worry about.” The story goes on to say the main reason for recent stock market declines is changing perceptions about interest rates. Now the thinking in much of the marketplace is higher for longer, maybe much longer, including potential stagflation, as pointed out by JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon in the press recently.

Striking union workers in the U.S., led by the United Auto Workers, are also starting to weigh more heavily on trader and investor sentiment.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a 10-month high on Wednesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $93.25 a barrel. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: “Saudi Arabia and Russia win big in gamble on oil production cuts.”

Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is at a 16-year high this week and presently fetching 4.647%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of second-quarter GDP, revised corporate profits, pending home sales and the Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and hit a four-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,350.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,383.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,277.00 and then at 4,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 14,821.50 and then at this week’s high of 14,955.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,586.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 115 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 112 31/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 107.15.0 and then at 107.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a 10-month low Wednesday. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0611 and then at this week’s high of 1.0693. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0525 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 13-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $95.03 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $90.40 and then at this week’s low of $88.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. The keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is limiting buying interest in the grain futures. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing. That is also a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report and on Friday comes the quarterly grain stocks report from USDA.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is still not keen at mid-week, as a likely U.S. government shutdown this weekend is weighing on marketplace sentiment.

In overnight news, China got some upbeat economic news. Industrial production in August saw the first increase in more than a year, reflecting higher output and slower producer price deflation. The report suggests potential stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy. Meantime, China property developer Evergrande’s top official is reported to be under police control.

In other news, Australia’s consumer price inflation up-ticked in August, coming in at up 5.2%, year-on-year versus a rise of 4.9% in July.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and hit another 6.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $92.00 a barrel. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Quiet Western drills set stage for $100 oil.” Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently near this week’s multi-year high and fetching 4.503%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up a bit in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and hit a 3.5-month low Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,305.50 and then at 4,275.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,955.75 and then at 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,666.25 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 even and then at this week’s high of 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 114 10/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 108.00.5 and then at 107.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a 10-month low overnight. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0647 and then at this week’s high of 1.0693. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the September high of $92.43 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $90.40 and then at this week’s low of $88.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. The keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is limiting buying interest in the grain futures. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing. That is also a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crops to the local elevators. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff