Daily Morning Report

Monday, July 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight developments, China got some more downbeat economic news Monday, as the world’s second-largest economy’s gross domestic product showed 6.3% growth in the second quarter, year-on-year, which was below expectations for a rise of 6.9%. The news put some downside price pressure on the metals and crude oil markets. “The Chinese economy is clearly sputtering,” said one analyst in a Wall Street Journal story on the matter.

A couple of interesting headlines in the Wall Street Journal: “Economists dial back (U.S.) recession predictions” and “Traders position for soft landing.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower trading around $74.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.779%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey. The data pace picks up speed Tuesday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and near last week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,560.50 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at 4,470.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last Friday’s contract high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,857.25 and then at 16,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 14,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 127 6/32 and then at the July high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 5/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 113.03.0 and then at 113.15.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.14.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting another 15-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1284 and then at 1.1300. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1200 and then at 1.1166. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $76.09 and then at the July high of $77.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.84 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, supported by news Russia has announced it is pulling out of the grain-shipping deal with Ukraine and the United Nations. The corn market is still overall bearish, soybeans are bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are benign at present.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Said Craig Erlam of OANDA in a Friday morning email dispatch: “It’s shaping up to be quite a relaxed end to the week… on the back of some very encouraging inflation data from the US. Inflation was already well off its highs but there was something about (the U.S. CPI) report that was different. Not only did it beat on the headline and core level but both of the monthly readings were also incredibly positive. Now it’s just a question of whether that can be sustained. The light at the end of the tightening tunnel is getting brighter and investors are increasingly confident of emerging after one more (Fed) hike in two weeks. At which point the focus will turn to the U.S. economy and whether a soft landing can still be achieved before the discussion pivots to rate cuts.”

The potential “fly in the ointment” for a sustainable global economic recovery is downbeat economic data that has been coming out of China lately. The world’s second-largest economy is a voracious consumer of raw commodities. A Wall Street Journal report today said: “Exports are crumbling in China and across Asia, showing the deepening toll that rising interest rates are taking on global trade and economic growth.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit higher and hitting a 15-month low in overnight trading. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.787%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and near this week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,551.50 and then at 4,575.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,509.25 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,470.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower but near this week’s contract high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s contract high of 15,741.25 and then at 15,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 15,456.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 127 2/32 and then at the July high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 15/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.03.0 and then at 113.15.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.21.0 and then at Thursday’s low of 112.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another 15-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1280 and then at 1.1300. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1200 and then at Thursday’s low of 1.1166. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.33 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. It’s been a choppy trading week in the grains. The corn market is still overall bearish, soybeans are bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are not bullish. The Midwest weather will have to in a hurry turn hotter and drier than present extended forecasts, in order to reignite another weather scare this summer.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is still basking in the glow of a tame U.S. inflation report that came out Wednesday morning. Said analyst Nigel Green of the deVere Group: “The U.S. is now likely to pull off the perfect ‘soft landing,’ with the world’s largest economy avoiding a recession as the latest inflation data comes in cooler than expected. The U.S. CPI data raises hopes that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to bring down inflation without steering the U.S. economy into a recession. The battle on rising prices is being won, as the data suggests, meaning the pressure is off the Fed for future rate hikes. Cooling inflation and a strong and resilient labor market suggest that no recession will come in 2023.”

In overnight news, China’s exports in June fell a worse-than-expected 12.4%, year-on-year, following a drop of 7.5% reported in May. Imports in June dropped a worse-than-expected 6.8%, year-on-year. The dour news from the world’s second-largest economy has put only a slight damper on raw commodity markets today.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a 15-month low in early U.S. trading. That’s bullish for the raw commodity sector, as most raw commodities on world trade markets are priced in U.S. dollars. The weaker USDX makes those commodities less expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $76.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.822%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the producer price index and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a 15-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,550.00 and then at 4,575.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,470.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,700.00 and then at 15,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,456.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a contract low Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at the July high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 125 16/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.24.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.07.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 15-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1211 and then at 1.1250. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1166 and then at 1.1100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at overnight high of $76.16 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight. On tap today is the USDA weekly export sales report. Not much new this week. The corn market is still bearish, soybeans bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are still wetter. The Midwest weather will have to turn hotter and drier than present forecasts, in order to reignite another weather scare. The window is closing on a serious weather scare in corn redeveloping this summer.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the week is the consumer price index report for June this morning, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, compared to a gain of 5.3% in the May report. Trading action in many financial markets may heat up in the wake of the CPI report, especially if it’s a miss from market expectations. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Inflation is likely lowest since early 2021, but still too hot for Fed.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.948%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the Federal Reserve’s beige book and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,439.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,411.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,063.25 and then at 14,853.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on more short covering after hitting a contract low Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at 125 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 123 31/32 and then at 123 16/32 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.24.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 111.03.5 and then at 110.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a two-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1074 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0982. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the June high of $75.70 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight. On tap today is the USDA monthly supply and demand report. The corn market is still bearish, soybeans bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. These divergences in technical postures for the grains are uncommon. Don’t look for them to last too long. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still some dry pockets in the Corn Belt. Still, the Midwest weather will have to turn hotter and drier than present forecasts, in order to reignite another weather scare. The window is starting to close on a serious weather scare in corn redeveloping this summer.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff