Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, July 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Despite a holiday-shortened U.S. trading week, it’s still a busy one for the marketplace. The latest FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve are released this afternoon. The U.S. employment situation report for June is out Friday. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up 240,000 versus a gain of 339,000 in the May report.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for May came in down 1.5%, year-on-year compared to expectations for a decline of 1.3%.

In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to China Thursday for meetings with high-level Chinese officials. The meeting comes at a time when U.S.-China tensions are running very high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.85%. 

Other U.S. economic due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, domestic auto industry sales, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at 4,425.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,150.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 127 24/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at the June low of 125 21/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.17.5 and then at 112.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.25.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.09575 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0876 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.77 and then at $72.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were closed overnight for the U.S. holiday. Last Friday’s surprising USDA planted acreage report showed much more U.S. corn acres planted and less soybean acres planted. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still significant dry pockets in the Corn Belt.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to higher in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P stock index futures hit a 14-month high last Friday. Look for quieter trading today as many American traders and investors are taking an extra day off, ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday Tuesday. Some U.S. markets close early today.

It’s still a busy week for the marketplace as the U.S. employment situation report for June is out Friday. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up 240,000 versus a gain of 339,000 in the May report.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to China Thursday for meetings with high-level Chinese officials.

In overnight news, the Eurozone June manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 43.4, which was slightly lower than market expectations. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.849%. 

U.S. economic due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at 4,425.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,200.00 and then at Friday’s low of 15,099.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen Friday’s high of 127 7/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at Friday’s low of 125 21/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and near Friday’s 3.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 112.12.5 and then at 112.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 111.25.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0973 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0876 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.77 and then at $72.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, with soybeans sharply up. Friday’s surprising USDA planted acreage report showed much more U.S. corn acres planted and less soybean acres planted. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still significant dry pockets in the Corn Belt. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Friday is the last trading day of the week, of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra important day for technically oriented traders.

The U.S. data point of the day is the personal income and outlays report for May, including the PCE price indexes. The PCE core price index is seen coming in up 4.7%, year-on-year, which is the same as the April report reading. Federal Reserve Board members are said to watch the PCE inflation numbers closely.

China got some more downbeat economic data Friday. The world’s second-largest economy’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction. The manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in June versus 48.8 May and a 49.0 consensus forecast. The services PMI in June was 53.2 versus 54.5 May and a 53.5 forecast. The composite PMI was 52.3 versus 52.9 in May. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. Under 50.0 suggests contraction.

In other overnight news, the Eurozone consumer price index for June came in at up 5.5%, year-on-year, versus the May reading of up 6.1% and a consensus forecast of up 5.6% in June.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $70.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.878%. 

U.S. economic due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,493.75 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,433.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,853.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 13/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at the May low of 125 9/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a 3.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.08.5 and then at 112.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.25.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0917 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.0984. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $70.73 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight on corrective bounces from recent strong selling pressure. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter and that’s bearish. The bulls need the dryness pattern to ratchet up a notch, to include more heat, in order to revive grain prices. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls have lost their near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed. On tap today are two of the biggest USDA reports of the year: the planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports. Look for higher price volatility in the immediate aftermath of the 12:00 noon EDT USDA reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, Sweden’s central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.25%, to 3.75%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $69.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.749%. 

U.S. economic due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of first-quarter GDP, and pending home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,462.00 and then at the June high of 4,493.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,368.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,236.00 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,853.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 10/32 and then at this week’s high of 128 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 12/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.08.5 and then at this week’s high of 113.16.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.24.5 and then at last week’s low of 112.21.0.  Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the June high of 1.1061. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0924 and then at last week’s low of 1.0891. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $70.15 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on corrective bounces from recent strong selling pressure. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned a bit wetter and that’s bearish. The bulls need the dryness pattern to ratchet up a notch, to include more heat, in order to revive grain prices. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls have lost their near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Friday there are two of the biggest USDA reports of the year: the planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff