Daily Morning Report

Friday, July 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

On tap today is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month: the U.S. employment situation report for June. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up 240,000 versus a gain of 339,000 in the May report. However, Thursday’s June U.S. ADP national employment report showed a rise of 497,000 jobs, which was double market expectations for a gain of 220,000. The ADP report has many thinking the Labor Department’s jobs report Friday morning will also be much stronger than expected.

This week’s ADP jobs report, hawkish Fed speak and FOMC minutes have moved the needle well into the reading of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at this month’s FOMC meeting. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield moved above 4.0% this week, which is the highest since March. The 10-year yield is presently fetching 4.062%. 

In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in China for meetings with high-level Chinese officials. Yellen reportedly criticized China for its treatment of U.S. companies. Her visit comes at a time when U.S.-China tensions are running very high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $72.00 a barrel.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,419.50 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,111.50 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near Thursday’s four-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 19/32 and then at 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and near Thursday’s contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.24.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 110.05.0 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.09575 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.72 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at this week’s low of $69.69. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The corn market is fully bearish, soybeans bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. These wide divergences in technical postures for the grains are very uncommon. Don’t look for them to last too long. My bias is that the bearish corn and neutral-bearish wheat markets will drag soybeans into the bearish camp soon. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still some dry pockets in the Corn Belt.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The latest FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve were released Wednesday afternoon and they leaned hawkish. The minutes from the June 13-14 meeting showed that while almost all Fed officials deemed it “appropriate and acceptable” to keep the key Fed funds rate unchanged at a 5.0-5.25% range, some would have supported a 0.25% increase, according to a Bloomberg report. The minutes also said “almost all” FOMC members agreed that further tightening of U.S. monetary policy will be needed this year.

Meantime, the U.S. employment situation report for June is out Friday. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up 240,000 versus a gain of 339,000 in the May report.

In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to China Thursday for meetings with high-level Chinese officials. The meeting comes at a time when U.S.-China tensions are running very high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is closing in on 4.0%, presently fetching 3.981%. 

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic releases Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the ADP national employment report, U.S. international trade in goods and services, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) report, the global services PMI, monthly chain store sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,425.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,150.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 125 17/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at 124 16/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.15.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.00.0 and then at 110.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.09575 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.72 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.69 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to higher overnight. The corn market is fully bearish, soybeans bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. These wide divergences in technical postures for the grains are very uncommon. Don’t look for them to last too long. My bias is that the bearish corn and neutral-bearish wheat markets will drag soybeans into the bearish camp soon. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still some dry pockets in the Corn Belt.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Despite a holiday-shortened U.S. trading week, it’s still a busy one for the marketplace. The latest FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve are released this afternoon. The U.S. employment situation report for June is out Friday. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up 240,000 versus a gain of 339,000 in the May report.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for May came in down 1.5%, year-on-year compared to expectations for a decline of 1.3%.

In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to China Thursday for meetings with high-level Chinese officials. The meeting comes at a time when U.S.-China tensions are running very high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.85%. 

Other U.S. economic due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, domestic auto industry sales, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at 4,425.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,150.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 127 24/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at the June low of 125 21/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.17.5 and then at 112.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.25.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.09575 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0876 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.77 and then at $72.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were closed overnight for the U.S. holiday. Last Friday’s surprising USDA planted acreage report showed much more U.S. corn acres planted and less soybean acres planted. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still significant dry pockets in the Corn Belt.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to higher in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P stock index futures hit a 14-month high last Friday. Look for quieter trading today as many American traders and investors are taking an extra day off, ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday Tuesday. Some U.S. markets close early today.

It’s still a busy week for the marketplace as the U.S. employment situation report for June is out Friday. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up 240,000 versus a gain of 339,000 in the May report.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to China Thursday for meetings with high-level Chinese officials.

In overnight news, the Eurozone June manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 43.4, which was slightly lower than market expectations. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.849%. 

U.S. economic due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at 4,425.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,200.00 and then at Friday’s low of 15,099.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen Friday’s high of 127 7/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at Friday’s low of 125 21/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and near Friday’s 3.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 112.12.5 and then at 112.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 111.25.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0973 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0876 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.77 and then at $72.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, with soybeans sharply up. Friday’s surprising USDA planted acreage report showed much more U.S. corn acres planted and less soybean acres planted. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still significant dry pockets in the Corn Belt. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff