Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, July 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trading so far this week has been more subdued and the same may be the case today. However, the U.S. data point of a busy data week is the consumer price index report for June on Wednesday morning, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, compared to a gain of 5.3% in the May report. Trading action in many financial markets is likely to heat up in the wake of the CPI report, especially if it’s a miss from market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $73.20 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.962%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 4,476.00 and then at the June high of 4,498.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,368.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,063.25 and then at 14,853.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at 125 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 31/32 and then at 123 16/32 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 111.20.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.00.0 and then at Monday’s low of 110.13.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a two-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1065 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0982. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.15 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher again overnight. Not much new. The corn market is still bearish, soybeans bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. These divergences in technical postures for the grains are uncommon. Don’t look for them to last too long. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still some dry pockets in the Corn Belt. Still, the Midwest weather will have to turn hotter and drier than present forecasts, in order to reignite another weather scare. The window is starting to close on a serious weather scare in corn redeveloping this summer.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s consumer price index for June came in at 0.0%, year-on-year, which was below market expectations for a 0.2% rise. Meantime, China’s producer price index in June fell a lower-than-expected 5.4% year-on-year, compared to a 4.6% drop in May.

The U.S. data point of the week is the consumer price index report for June, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, compared to a gain of 5.3% in the May report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $73.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield last week moved above 4.0%, which is the highest since March. The 10-year yield is presently fetching 4.070%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index, monthly wholesale trade and consumer credit. Several Federal Reserve Board officials are also scheduled to give speeches today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, more selling pressure this week would raise the specter of a bearish double-top reversal pattern forming on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,476.00 and then at the June high of 4,498.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,368.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,853.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 124 15/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 111.00.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 110.05.0 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1022 and then at the June high of 1.1061. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0950 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are weaker but hit a five-week high in overnight trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The corn market is still bearish, soybeans bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. These divergences in technical postures for the grains are uncommon. Don’t look for them to last too long. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still some dry pockets in the Corn Belt.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

On tap today is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month: the U.S. employment situation report for June. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up 240,000 versus a gain of 339,000 in the May report. However, Thursday’s June U.S. ADP national employment report showed a rise of 497,000 jobs, which was double market expectations for a gain of 220,000. The ADP report has many thinking the Labor Department’s jobs report Friday morning will also be much stronger than expected.

This week’s ADP jobs report, hawkish Fed speak and FOMC minutes have moved the needle well into the reading of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at this month’s FOMC meeting. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield moved above 4.0% this week, which is the highest since March. The 10-year yield is presently fetching 4.062%. 

In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in China for meetings with high-level Chinese officials. Yellen reportedly criticized China for its treatment of U.S. companies. Her visit comes at a time when U.S.-China tensions are running very high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $72.00 a barrel.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,419.50 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,111.50 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and near Thursday’s four-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 19/32 and then at 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and near Thursday’s contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.24.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 110.05.0 and then at 110.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.09575 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.72 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at this week’s low of $69.69. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The corn market is fully bearish, soybeans bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. These wide divergences in technical postures for the grains are very uncommon. Don’t look for them to last too long. My bias is that the bearish corn and neutral-bearish wheat markets will drag soybeans into the bearish camp soon. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still some dry pockets in the Corn Belt.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The latest FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve were released Wednesday afternoon and they leaned hawkish. The minutes from the June 13-14 meeting showed that while almost all Fed officials deemed it “appropriate and acceptable” to keep the key Fed funds rate unchanged at a 5.0-5.25% range, some would have supported a 0.25% increase, according to a Bloomberg report. The minutes also said “almost all” FOMC members agreed that further tightening of U.S. monetary policy will be needed this year.

Meantime, the U.S. employment situation report for June is out Friday. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up 240,000 versus a gain of 339,000 in the May report.

In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to China Thursday for meetings with high-level Chinese officials. The meeting comes at a time when U.S.-China tensions are running very high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is closing in on 4.0%, presently fetching 3.981%. 

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic releases Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the ADP national employment report, U.S. international trade in goods and services, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) report, the global services PMI, monthly chain store sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,425.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,150.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 125 17/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at 124 16/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower and hit a four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.15.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.00.0 and then at 110.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.09575 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.72 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.69 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to higher overnight. The corn market is fully bearish, soybeans bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. These wide divergences in technical postures for the grains are very uncommon. Don’t look for them to last too long. My bias is that the bearish corn and neutral-bearish wheat markets will drag soybeans into the bearish camp soon. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still some dry pockets in the Corn Belt.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff