Daily Morning Report

Friday, April 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

After an initial overnight knee-jerk, the markets are not reacting strongly to an overnight Israeli retaliatory air strike on a major Iranian city, which apparently produced little damage. Military and geopolitical analysts are saying Israel’s military action overnight was limited and meant to show Iran that Israel has the capability to do a major, devastating strike on Iran if it wants to do so. Meantime, Iran appears to be, at least initially, downplaying the event as minor. Many analysts see the overnight event as possibly being the beginning of a de-escalation of Israel-Iran tensions. However, there are still major unknowns, such as how Iran will respond, or if Israel will strike Iran again. The U.S. military was not involved in the overnight Israeli air strikes.

Gold prices are trading a bit weaker early today, after a brief overnight spike on the Israeli air strike on Iran. Longtime gold market watchers have noticed that there has been much stronger demand for gold coming out of China recently, as evidenced by huge trading volumes in gold futures on the Chinese futures exchanges.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $82.25 a barrel—well down from the overnight spike high of $86.28. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.569%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 5,095.25 and then at 5,023.25. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at the overnight low of 4,963.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month low overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading badly, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 17,770.75 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,300.00 and then at overnight low of 17,181.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 5/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 114 9/32 and then at this week’s low of 113 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.22.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.24.5 and then at this week’s low of 107.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Tuesday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0715 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $81.56 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have lost steam the past couple weeks. Price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated. Traders and investors are reminded of the old market saying, “Sell in May and go away” until after Labor Day.

There have been no major developments the in the Iran-Israel hostilities the past few days, following last week’s barrage of missile and drone strikes by Iran against Israel. Come Friday, it’s likely traders and investors will be positioning for a very uncertain weekend on the Middle East front.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a 5.5-month high on Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.58%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low Wednesday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 5,120.50 and then at 5,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,047.00 and then at 5,020.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low Wednesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,900.00 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,615.25 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 116 1/32 and then at 116 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at this week’s low of 113 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.10.5 and then at this week’s high of 108.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Tuesday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $82.95 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in remarks on Tuesday afternoon cast a hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy. He said U.S. inflation persists, calling into question whether the Fed can cut interest rates this year. He suggested interest rates may have to remain higher for longer, to get inflation back down to a level where the Fed feels more comfortable. U.S. Treasury yields rose to five-month highs after Powell’s comments.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for March came in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

Risk aversion remains elevated at mid-week, after the weekend air attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies. Israel has vowed to retaliate.

In other news, broker SP Angel reported overnight that metals analysts say central banks are buying around 25% of annual gold production–the highest level since the early 1970s when the Bretton Woods accord unraveled.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a 5.5-month high on Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $84.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.65%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,075.75 and then at 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week low overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,778.00 and then at 17,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 114 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 116 1/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 10/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 108.04.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Tuesday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $86.18 and then at last week’s high of $87.67. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.05 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Risk aversion is still elevated Tuesday, following the weekend Iranian air attacks on Israel. Israel’s military chief said Israel will retaliate, despite U.S. warnings to Israel that the U.S. won’t participate in any retaliation. NBC reports that an Israeli military response to Iran’s attack is imminent. At present, the general marketplace appears to be taking any Israeli retaliation lightly, as markets are not seeing keen risk aversion or stronger moves into safe-haven assets. This full-time 40-year markets watcher thinks the marketplace is presently dead wrong, regarding thinking the Israel-Iran conflict will not escalate significantly. It seems to me that Israel finally has its good excuse to take out or seriously degrade Iran’s military and its nuclear weapons capability. Iran has vowed in the past to destroy Israel.

In overnight news, China’s first-quarter GDP beat market expectations by rising 5.3%, year-on-year versus 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 20/22 and 4.8% expected by forecasters. On the downside, China’s industrial production in March was up 6.1% versus up 7.0% February and 6.6% forecast. March retail Sales were up 4.7%, year-on-year versus up 5.5% in February and 5.4% expected. And the bad news: China’s property Investment was down 9.5% in March compared to down 9.0% in February and down 9.2% expected by the marketplace. Residential property Sales were down 30.7% in March versus down 32.7% in February, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.63%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, new residential construction, and industrial production and capacity utilization. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,081.25 and then at 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,000.00 and then at 18,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,792.00 and then at 17,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 114 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 116 1/32. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.04.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.18.5 and then at 107.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Monday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0629 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.67 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.05 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Still not much new in the grains. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It was a tense weekend after Iran and its allies coordinated a massive air strike on Israel. However, judging by what the markets are doing Monday morning, the marketplace reckons the outcome could have been much worse and that the Iran-Israel confrontation may de-escalate now.

Still, Israel has vowed to retaliate for the more-than 300 missiles and drones fired into Israel by Iran and its proxies. The attack included 185 explosive drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles, “in a salvo that could have killed thousands and destroyed most of Israel’s infrastructure,” said broker SP Angel in a morning email dispatch. “Iran has been threatening to annihilate Israel for many years and it is only a matter of time before Iran develops its nuclear arsenal. The hard-line Netanyahu government will, almost inevitably, hit back at Iran in an attempt to slow its nuclear program, change its regime and reduce the capacity of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Members of the Israel cabinet are reported to be pushing for a powerful retaliatory strike as a deterrence, though the U.S. has stated it will not help Israel retaliate against Iran. We suspect the retaliatory attack will come sooner rather than later,” said the broker.

The Associated Press said in a morning email: “Iran may have managed to strike a balance between retaliating publicly and avoiding provoking further Israeli military action and setting off a much wider conflict. Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa center at the U.S. Institute of Peace said of the situation: ‘Both (Iran and Israel) are able at this point to claim victory and step down off the precipice, particularly since there were no Israeli civilians killed.’ ” The marketplace will remain extra nervous in the coming days.

In other news, China kept its monetary policy unchanged at its PBOC central bank meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.573%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 5,248.75 and then at last week’s high of 5,285.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,150.00 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 18,518.75 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 18,053.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 1/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 114 29/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.22.0 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 107.27.5 and then at 107.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Friday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0667 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.67 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.33 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff