Daily Morning Report

Thursday, April 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion in the marketplace has receded the past couple weeks, allowing traders and investors to focus more on normal supply and demand, and economic fundamentals.

The U.S. data point of the day is the advance estimate for first-quarter GDP, including its inflation indexes. First-quarter GDP is seen coming in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, versus a 3.4% rise in the fourth quarter of last year. The report’s inflation indexes are expected to come in at up 2.0%, or just slightly below that level, year-on-year.

In overnight news, mining giant BHP offered to buy rival Anglo American for almost $39 billion. It’s a “potential megadeal that could reshape the global mining industry,” said DowJones Newswires.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $82.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.64%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, advance economic indicators, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,128.75 and then at 5,185.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 5,037.75 and then at this week’s low of 5,006.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,600.00 and then at 17,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,400.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 17,286.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 5/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at the April low of 113 10/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.08.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0772 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at the April low of 1.0628. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.71 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $80.70 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing clues that market bottoms are in place. More gains in the near term would suggest price uptrends can be developed and potentially sustained.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

An important theme has developed in the marketplace, especially in the foreign exchange market, the past few months. DowJones Newswires today has a headline that reads: “Asian central banks face policy dilemma from Fed rate-cut delay, FX crunch.” In the story, reporter Fabiana Negrin Ochoa says a surprise rate hike by Indonesia’s central bank accentuates expectations that the start of monetary policy easing is looking increasingly far off for many Asian central banks — if on the horizon at all. The Asian central banks fear they cannot cut rates before the Federal Reserve because it would further undermine their currencies that are already feeling the pressure of an appreciating U.S. dollar. Asian central banks lowering rates before the Fed does risks pushing inflation in the region higher. Yet, by delaying rate cuts the Asian central banks risk curbing economic growth by keeping borrowing costs higher. Recently, the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan have depreciated significantly against the dollar, as well as the currencies of South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.62%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,150.00 and then at 5,185.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 5,037.75 and then at this week’s low of 5,006.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,800.00 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,500.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 17,286.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 31/32 and then at the April low of 113 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.08.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.17.5 and then at the April low of 107.13.5. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0738 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $83.71 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $80.70 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing good clues that market bottoms are in place. More gains in the near term would suggest price uptrends can be developed and potentially sustained.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

A feature in the marketplace early this week is the steep drop in gold and silver prices. While major central banks and other longer-term investors have been snapping up gold bullion with no intention of selling it back anytime soon, it’s a different story with the shorter-term futures traders and the high leverage involved. That’s what’s driving this week’s downdraft in gold and silver prices: weak-handed futures traders (both in the U.S. and overseas futures markets) who are under water. Many of them are likely getting margin calls from their brokers. These shorter-term speculators are being forced to liquidate their losing long positions. Also, the fortunate futures traders that still hold a profit are taking those profits and getting out of the gold and silver futures markets. This is not anything new in futures markets trading. While the gold and silver bulls have lost their upside momentum, both markets remain overall firmly technically bullish. This week’s sell offs in the gold and silver markets are still just significant downside price corrections in major bull runs. However, if the sharp selling pressure continues deeper into this week, near-term technical damage would likely be inflicted to begin to suggest near-term market tops, if not major market tops, are in place. Trading action in gold and silver the rest of this week will be extra important. The bulls need to step up, stop the bleeding and show some fresh power soon to keep their bull runs alive.

In other news, the Japanese yen continues to depreciate against the U.S. dollar. Japan’s finance minister today said the Japanese government will take appropriate measures against excessive currency moves, and that the government is watching the yen’s situation with a sense of urgency. Meantime a Bank of Japan governor said the BOJ will raise short-term interest rates if inflation moves toward 2%, as the BOJ expects to happen.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.63%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI), the Richmond Fed business survey, and new residential sales.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,100.00 and then at 5,125.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 5,006.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,963.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,500.00 and then at 17,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,286.25 and then at last week’s low of 17,113.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at Monday’s high of 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at the April low of 113 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0718 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $83.01 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $80.70 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Finally, bulls have some positive news. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing good clues that market bottoms are in place. More gains in the near term would suggest price uptrends can be developed and potentially sustained.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are sharply lower to start the trading week. Profit taking and weak long liquidation in the futures markets are featured. Perceived easing tensions in the Middle East are a bearish element for safe-haven gold and silver. Broker SP Angel said today in an email dispatch: “Many gold miners will be forward selling into the new high price levels with the influx of new metal into futures markets likely to temper further price rises. The ability of to secure futures prices of $2,373 an ounce will likely bring in substantial tonnages of gold from miners looking to secure profits in the face of inflation.” Gold prices have been driven higher in recent weeks due in part by a marked rise in trading activity on China’s futures exchanges.

In other news China’s central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged Monday, in line with market expectations. One-year and five-year prime loan rates were kept at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $83.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.64%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 5,058.00 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,963.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,400.00 and then at 17,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 17,113.25 and then at 17,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at the April low of 113 10/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the April low of 107.13.5 and then at 107.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0715 and then at 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 1.0628 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $81.56 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly crop progress reports. Charts are still overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff